Raoul Paul – Why Bitcoin And Crypto Can 100x From Here
Every week, both talking to institutions presenting to institutions answering requests theyre all over every um. You know everybody. If you talk to anybody from galaxy to luca to any of these companies that see the onboarding, you know nydig, all all theyre saying is wall to wall requests. Incoming onboarding takes a while people. Dont understand that you know for institutions. Go oh well were gon na buy bitcoin? Okay. How do you mark to market it? What is the open? What is the clone, which price do you take theres, no single exchange? Then? How do you custody it? How do you account for it all of this stuff months of work, which is interesting because its been a year since microstrategy, first purchased bitcoin, we saw tesla come in then michael saylor hosted a meeting of 2000 cfos or representatives from companies, and there was this sentiment That by march or april we would see a hundred more companies adding bitcoin to their treasury and it didnt happen. Then obviously we saw the correction. People could argue that thats a reason that they didnt come in then, but do you think its just a function of what you just described its going to take six months or a year function of two things for institutions as a function of what i talked about? It just takes time right, theres a lot of people to get across the line, and you need to appease a lot of people for the corporations its how you account for it in gaap accounting.
This is the big problem. Is you can only mark it down? You cant mark it up and it has volatility in your quarterly earnings. So only people like michael saylor will accept it. Others wont so everyones trying to figure out. Can we get gap, accounting rules changed or, if not, is there a vehicle that will um be able to allow us to do it without putting on the balance is a way of having off balance sheet so thats why the corporations are slow? They want to do it. Ive spoken to many but theyre, like counting rules, a sailors, a bit of a unicorn. I mean hes in a position where he has enough control to make that move and has, i guess the balls to say if youre not on board, see ya right, but i dont think were going to see many more companies adopt at that level right. I think. Well see more than just one to five percent. When the rules change, it makes total sense at that level. No, it doesnt make sense for companies, because hes basically bet his whole compass and thats. Okay um. But you know for microsoft to do it. No, but they they do manage a huge amount of cash and its a very good instrument for them, and you know we even had a paper commissioned at real vision about portfolio effects and its incredibly powerful, so they want to do it its hard. So you mentioned the pareto principle earlier: the 80 20 for the networks.
Is that generally your view on how many of these coins in general or survive, i mean we probably have 10 000 coins on coin market cap? At this point i havent looked, but what happens to most um yeah, the 80 20 rule. I mean this is like the dot com boom. How many survive not that many? But you know yes, its its okay to play with these small ones. But you need to know what youre doing or just take a very small position and realize that youre hugely speculative youre trading pennies and they can go bust at any time or you can build a proper portfolio and think about risk management and understand that not all Of them will work as well as you want, but youre going to only get involved in the top 30 or 40 coins, and then you may take an individual bet because you particularly like audience or something like that: thats okay, but you know dont, go looking for Penny stocks to try and get rich, because its proven that virtually nobody ever gets rich from penny stocks. Generally they end up in prison or broke. That is absolutely true and you sort of touched on it: the wolf of wall street being a classic example, yeah yeah. Absolutely, and so you talked about maybe next march, as sort of a cycle top for ethereum, do you view either bitcoin ethereum or any of these assets as generational investments? Or is it still a trade where youre looking to exit at a cycle? Top todays episode is sponsored by itrust capital, the number one crypto ira platform in america.
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So like ethereum and therefore at that point you should own those – and maybe you should never own bitcoin, now thats thats, the extremity of the whole thing. So my ver my view on this is, i think the space goes. The market cap of the space goes up. 100 x from here over the next 10 years, so call it from 2 trillion to 200 trillion. I mean thats ludicrous weve never been faced with an asset class that does that in all recorded history in a period of time like this, so the cycles are going to be important occasionally because you dont really want to sit for two years, not making money. You might be able to make money in other stuff, but you know, generally speaking, you want to keep some into it and you know some people keep all into it. I wont i will take some off the table um and do other stuff um, and i will then look for the time to get back in again when i think its going on its next move. Now maybe weve eliminated the cycles all together now and that its smoother and it trades sideways for two years, thats possible too. I dont really have a view but uh, i wont be 100, my net worth the entire cycle that that you know that doesnt make 100 yeah, but would you be 20, oh yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah and knowing that that 20 could go down to eight yeah because Of you know the markets yeah.
I have no pr. I have no issue with that whatsoever. What is your take on at this point in either the cycle or just in the general life of crypto, on its correlation between other markets? I dont think its correlated at all. I think the only correlation, occasionally theres passing correlation, but they dont last. The correlation generally is central. Bank printing tends to rise all asset prices, so of course that features in bitcoins price, as it does in gold and equities real estate and arts, and all these other things so thats, probably one of the larger drivers but its not correlated. Why? Because its a network effect assets different its its its, not just a rare asset, its a rare asset with network effects. Okay, we weve seen any of these. This is why it keeps confounding people in how it moves network effect. Rare assets never exist so somewhat inversely correlated to the dollar, which goes down when they print money. Well, the dollar versus other currencies, thats, not true the dollar right. That kind of denominator fear purchase. Yes, yeah weve talked about that. Before being you can be bad, but if everybody else is worse, the dxy still rises. Thats right i mean the dollar is going up right now. You know, but yes, youre right its somewhat correlated to that. But ive always said its the store of value which would go up and down with that, but its a call option in the future thats the network and the whole space has got the same attribute.
Some has more is more speculative um for sure, because we dont know how the networks going to get used. I mean cant. We assume that central banks are trapped and are going to continue printing somewhat endlessly in some way shape or form. So last year we had the biggest recession in all recorded history, and it only lasted two months because we threw more money at it than any other thing in a in that two months than it ever happened before by a factor of god knows where ten so Jay pal and janet yenner sit back in a room and go. We did pretty well there and they kind of did and they kind of did for the economy yeah they did and for people who owned assets its like. Okay, the world didnt fall apart and we stopped a recession. So why are they not going to do that again at any opportunity? I mean they now go well, christ. We avoided the financial crisis and then we we avoided the biggest insolvency in history over the pandemic. Well, lets keep using this magic tool because its the gif that keeps on giving theyre not going to say well, were not going to take it out of the box until its a really special moment. Theyll be like it. The s p is down 10 percent im, bringing the im opening the box. Yes, sir, unload the big big guns, yeah, of course, thats human nature right, but whats.
The endgame of that do stocks literally just only go up yeah because the denominators falling so are venezuelan stocks going up or not? No, when you put it in dollars so, but my view on this has been and who knows? Look, i none of us have a clue. My guess is this parallel universe, more people migrate across, so the end of the existing system ends with a whimper, not a bang, because enough people have already left and migrated to a superior system, and it effectively just dies. A slow quiet, death, correct, interesting, take whats goals and whats golds role in that uh transition. I think goals will always play its role and it will go up in value over time. It just doesnt. Have this call option effect, which is why you know peter schiff gets angry because bitcoin keeps going versus gold. Yes, because its gold plus its as simple as that gold will do its thing and all of the people who trusted in gold for millennia. It will still maintain its value. So if you look at real estate versus gold or equities versus gold, um art versus got all of these things, theyre all roughly in line where they should nothings wildly overvalued. Gold is the anchor pricing of the world, its the stable coin of the world um. So i think that continues to work. I mean i follow a basket of gold versus 27 currencies, excluding the dollar and all it does is.
It goes sideways, sideways, sideways money, printing up, sideways, sideways, sideways money, printing up its like thats.