WILL SEPTEMBER BE A BEARISH MONTH FOR BITCOIN & CRYPTO?
So today, just like the thumbnail suggests, is september a bearish month when we take a look at uh the data and analytics. Yes, it is quite a bearish month, but the real question is: is how bearish is it going to be and well take a look at some points and just go from there, and i can tell you right now, not too bad. Also well. Take a look at some positive news as india and the government comes out and says this is how were going to regulate cryptocurrency. This is a fantastic move by the indian government. Also well take a look at band teachers, crypto and trade. The chain, as we were on the one of the nascar cars for this uh weeks, race or this, this weekends race and finally well take a look at jp morgan and the analysts concerns about what is going to cryptocurrency, which will tie this all together. So uh, that is what is going on, but the big question is whats going on the market. So today it is very early. 7 20 in the morning september 5th on a sunday and were almost at 2.3 trillion dollars and the bitcoin price has uh climbed again up above 50 000 and is staying there so well see how long that lasts. But the thing i want you to notice here is the daily sentiment, which is right by the bitcoin price in the upper left hand corner here. The daily sentiment is 34 out of 100, which is quite low, considering where we were at just a couple of days ago were in the 70s, and daily sentiment is 52 out of 100, but just for bitcoin people are quite bearish, and this is, and, as you Know were using trade the chain theres, a link in the description, looks something like this and what it does is it just goes through all the different blog posts.
All the websites theres a lot of scraping reddit, all the different social media also on twitter. It has one of uh one of the very few direct api integrations, so it uh assimilates and digests millions and millions of tweets per hour to give us a sentiment, and this is what people are saying like look uh, we dont really trust whats going on with Bitcoin, of course, youre always going to have the people who are who are ever bulls. They dont really care what goes on, but in an average people are pretty bearish, and that is the news for what it is. But the real question is: is why are they bearish and how long is this going to last and whats going to happen in september? So really, if we take a look at it and we just take a little quick jump back, you have to understand. Something. Is that theres going to be bullish months can be bearish months, sometimes theres, more buyers and sellers thats. Just how it is real question is how bad is it going to be, but i have i want you to remember one thing, and that is that that is this, that, for all the time that you have been an investor in crypto and digital assets, you have To take a look at, this is pretty much what its like and all those different fud articles that you go through all the different. You know chinas banning cryptocurrency and the hash rate is super far down and there was a.
There was a hack at this exchange and then scott menard from guggenheim comes out, and some gold bug says something like this and then you know you have something like september. Is going to be an awful bearish month when people look at you and youve been investing for a long time. People like oh, it looks so easy, but its not because were bombarded with these. These articles, that really put in doubt and what you really need to do, is take a look at the story behind the story and see exactly whats going on and thats. Why im here and thats, why its so difficult to get to this area? But it can be done its just. We have to do our own research and our due diligence to make sure were on the right track. So what im talking about here is this little article which talks about september bitcoin, bare phase and whats going on. So let me blow this up, so you can see it now, this one of course it was uh. It says very simply september hasnt been the most favorable month for bitcoin historical month september, usually sees bitcoin in a bearish stage, thats true. So when we just take a look at the the monthly candles uh going back into the most bullish of of years, which is in 2017., take a look september of 2017 and it was red, it was a red bearish month, awful then in 2018.
If you take a look at september again, a red bearish month, then in 2019 uh weve got uh another red bearish month and then in 2020 uh. We also have a nice red bearish month, so september historically has been pretty bearish all the way along. But i want you to notice one thing, and that is that this uh, especially in the in the most bullish of years in 2017, look at this. You had a pretty ah small little red candle, but it was bearish. Look what happened afterwards. Massive bullishness massive bull! Nice, big fat, green candle when bitcoin went all the way up to like 20, 000 or 19 000. and then in crypto winner wasnt that favorable, because it was pretty bad year for what was going on and we had uh. It was bearish, bearish, bearish and then a little bit of turnaround, which was pretty amazing. Since you know 18 was an awful year. I lived through that sucked and then we take a look over here september 2019. We had october nice green a little bit of red. A little dancing around and then it went to green and then 20. We take a look at this. Yes, there was a very bearish red candle for the month, but then look at this green, green, green, green, green, green and pretty massiveness. So if we take a look at it, historically yeah septembers a not a great month, but afterwards fireworks. Okay, so moving down it says: um bitcoin stock to flow model, creator, plan b takes it like this.
He says look september might be uh. What hes called a bearish wave, however october, is poised to take the market upwards in december, as a certified plan b could see bitcoin finally hit 100 000. Let me say that again: bitcoin could finally hit a hundred thousand dollars. Thats been my price prediction since january: 7th 2021, i thought bitcoin would go between 100 and 130, maybe 150. so ill take a hundred thousand. Maybe i overshot it im? Okay with that – and this is the big thing where is it going to go down low because just a couple months ago in may, we were flirting with 29 000 28 000 bitcoin, which means all the altcoins uh went down massively well uh were at 50, so He says september 43. 000. Floor could be the worst case scenario, so would that be so awful 43 thousand dollars for me? No because i dollar cost average. I think in that situation this is a godsend and i can start to buy up really cheap alts as it as it falls down, because i know well, i believe i dont know anything i dont know i dont have a crystal ball and this is all investment Opinion on investment advice, but i believe that october november december will be pretty great month, so i will be buying like a madman and thatll, be like one of my one of my big buying sprees that i could probably get into and then he states uh october 63 000 is the worst case, the floor and thats.
What plan b from the stock to flow ratio talks about? And he says this uh also segwit adoption causes bitcoin fees to drop significantly and he states uh, because a large exchange, i will not say who finally implemented segwit transactions. Segwit adoption is now uh 80 of whats going on and expect fees to stay very low, so with segwit adoption, apparently uh. The actual transaction cost for bitcoin is very low and thats. What we want. We want cheap, fast and reliable, just like everything else. So bitcoin can do that so much the better. So again, if were taking a look at whats going on as far as the market uh september might not be so great, but i mean so far its been pretty good in september, which is kind of kind of scary. So maybe this will buck that trend and we wont see a big bearish month, but so far, if this is the most bearish, it can get ill take this all day long. So let me think about that in the comments section lets move on to our next piece were talking about india and crypto, because i thought this was great news for cryptocurrency in general. We had covered this months ago when india was going back and forth and and uh. You know there was different uh, conflicting uh news reports, but this is great news, so this was right out of uh india right out of uh, some of the uh uh publications and the economic times reported friday that cryptocurrencies, as far as like india and the government Will be treated as an asset, slash commodity, not as a security as a asset or commodity for all purposes, including taxation, as per use case payments, investment or utility, so it just depends on what it is, but its going to be a commodity.
In addition, the government will decide which cryptos will be allowed to trade in india now thats, where it gets interesting. Will they allow all cryptos sounds like not? Maybe they wont allow the five ten thousand different cryptos that are out there, but just say: hey were gon na. Let you do these this this, and this and its all gon na be hashed out, but that would be interesting to see which ones will be the winners, which ones will be the losers. But in the general grand scheme of things hey uh, it looks like were moving forward. Uh nichelle, shetty, ceo of crypto exchange was rx said this. This step is very positive for the crypto industry and im glad that the government is taking this direction towards crypto regulation. This will bring more clarity. Let me say it again: this will bring more clarity for the entire industry and push more entrepreneurs into this sector. It will reduce the fear of vc investors wanting to invest in the crypto in india, for retail and traders. This will again boost confidence and bring in a sense of stability. This is exactly what we want we want, i mean, i know some people will scream at the scream at me right now and say, but this is what we want. We want some clarity and people say we dont want regulation or clarity yeah, we do yeah. We do, because if we can get that, then we can have a lot of other players that are on the sidelines i cant get in because of whoever they are.
Maybe theyre the big institutions, the big money players, like you, know what i we dont like this, because if we put a bunch of money in the government, comes in and says no its a security. Well, now that just screws up all our plans and were not here to take a bunch of risks were here to make a bunch of money. So if we can just get a little clarity, thats good on top of the fact is this. This is why im excited about they said its a commodity because uh not too long ago – august, 4th 2021, uh, brian continuous content. I think i said his name right. Yeah, probably sure i nailed it uh, who is the chairman of the cftc? He says this just so: we are clear: uh, the sec has no authority over pure commodities or the trading venue, whether those commodities are wheat, gold, oil or crypto assets and theres a little bit of a struggle. I think between uh brian here contins and uh, gary ginsler from the sec, i think, theyre kind of balling out to see which one it actually is. I believe, theyre all commodities. I dont believe theres theres. There actually are some securities in crypto. You have to admit it. There is, but its not the whole darn uh market itself. So if brian from the usa come on, go look theyre commodities and then india can come out and say, look its a commodity thats.
How were going to do it? Why cant? We just uh go forward with that lets. Just get moving. Lets get some clarity move on anyhow. Let me know what you think about that in the comments section. I think this is great news. I know people like clarity, i like clarity. I like a little regulation. I mean little regulations like cake goes a long way. A slice is good. Whole cake will ruin your night and thats whats going on. So on top of that, just a little quick good news for us uh. This was uh from uh our guys over at uh. Scent token trade, the chain i want to give a shout out to alex masculina team. They were prominently placed on two nascar cars for this weekends race, a lot of exposure along with voyager, and probably some others who knows who else is getting into all the different other sports, but then right there very small is good enough, uh, dantejuscrypto.com and uh. If all these things that im talking about sounds like a new language to you, just go here to dan teaches crypto its a 100 free website, i get all the basics and a little bit more intermediate stuff in there and its 100 free. Like i said, you can just go in, there learn what you want to learn and then come out here and youll probably be a better investor for it. So hopefully weve got a little nascar fans come in and then hopefully you will sign up and go from there, and that was it so just want to give us thanks to that and then finally lets finish up with jp morgan.
Their goofy concerns so whats, going on j.p morgan again concerned, which is kind of funny, because jp morgan, as you may know, lets take a look at the timeline of jp morgan. Shall we? Ah yes, the timeline from jamie dimon, the ceo jp morgan. This was in 2015, jamie dimon, virtual currency will be stopped and then, of course, in 2017, jp morgan, ceo, jamie dimon, says bitcoin is a fraud and then moving forward into a little bit later 2018 jamie dimon says he regrets calling bitcoin and fraud and believes in The technology behind it and then yeah here we go 2020. jamie dimon, says bitcoin is not my cup of tea, even as jp morgan has warmed to crypto and then 2021 in february jp morgan says: investors could make bitcoin 1 of portfolios and then april 26 2021. Jp morgan may offer actively managed bitcoin fund report and they did so that, essentially, is a timeline of jpmorgan and now theyre weighing in with their expert opinions. Look if youve been in crypto for as long as i am 2017, you front run all these guys. You front and all the smart money, all the banks, all the people who are junior zoos out there and theyre like uh. We got ta, listen to us, they dont know how theyre doing uh theyre just taking theyre just making educated guesses. So just take this with a grain of salt but theres a question that ill poison you in a little bit.
So this little article i thought, was good to bring up just for one thing: altcoins now: control 59 of total market cap from just 22. At the beginning of august, thats amazing to go from 22 percent market cap and dominance to 59 and thats. Why its so important that bitcoin uh stays up a little bit. So i mean if even if it does go down, all coins will hold down even more and jpmorgan analyst said this. The share of altcoins look rather elevated by historical standards. In our opinion, investment opinion is more likely to be a reflection of froth and retail investor mania, rather than a reflection of a structural uptrend, so heres. The real question that i have as far as like mania and things like that who says its a mania right now, i think its its a mania when you dont have any use cases youre not really doing too much with it, and people are just speculating massive Speculation, but as things are actually being used and theres real world utility for cryptocurrency its, not just a mania its people going, you know what were probably going to need that in the future and thats im going to invest into it. Now its a difference between when jp morgan says its a mania and retails investing and retails investing as opposed to if they are investing into it and just going. You know what its a great future use were speculating on this, but you guys are just mania.
Were the smart people make sure that you listen to us and go from there? So to me i think theres actual real world utility come in. Just ask the el salvadorians just to ask everybody who has gotten nfts. Just ask me, who has taken out a loan against his cryptocurrency to purchase an investment property in puerto rico, so uh and then name your pick of whatever utility and theres massive more coming from there. So thats just a question. I want to pose everybody to see what they said and tell me what you think about that, but uh that is it so, and it was a quick one. Uh a lot of things going on tonight, ill be over at uh george, at cryptos, r, us and uh james, and the best answers for the dca show which ill be on time this time, because uh last time i got a little bit too uh caught up In some other things, uh charity event, but thats it so look if you liked that video you found some uh value in it, give it a thumbs up, give it a like ill consider subscribing. I need to talk about. Are time sensitive thats it for today. So thanks so much for watching.