Crazy Crypto Journey – Raoul Pal
So i sold it. I was like holy. I have no idea what this is, but things dont do that um, but is now on my radar screen id opened an account um. I knew how to trade it. I knew what it was um, so it was then on my radar screen and then bought back in in 2013 and then held it all the way through to 2017. 2017. The noise starts rising and im not worried about fudd, but there was an s curve moment. An s curve moment is essentially when the entire basis of a project is questioned and it either survives it or doesnt, and i was not sure what the forks meant. They felt like something really wrong to me and i i didnt have the knowledge base and actually to be fair. Nobody in the space knew what this was going to mean. You know was bitcoin cash gon na gon na um go further than bitcoin in the beginning. It looked like it might do, and this kind of stuff was like no im out and, yes sure those who stayed in i mean ive made. I know 10 15 times on money. At that point i didnt have a huge amount in, but enough in to make it significant, and i took my money out and i was more than happy and i never regretted the next rise up to 20 000. You know i dont regret stuff like that. Um and then i was out of bitcoin for a while.
I kind of i remember going to the coindesk consensus event in new york city um in early december of 2017, saying i think, bitcoins topped and which was a bit of fortuitous timing. And then i kind of got out of the way for a while i wasnt bearish on it. I just thought: well, you know its its its overdone itself and it wasnt on my radar screen. Theres plenty of macro stuff going on the dollar was going up oil markets collapsing, just it was fun to be had trading elsewhere, and then it was back in 2019, an old friend of mine that ive known for a long time, whos. Also a global macro investor. Subscriber for a very long time, uh dan tapiero started pestering me and hes a true macro guy and he started pestering me saying you need to look at bitcoin again: im like dan im busy and hes like no. You need to look at bitcoin again. You know dan, i take very seriously hes a really really smart guy and a great macro thinker. So eventually i just gave up because i got bored of him pestering me. So i said, look come on real vision and tell me what youre thinking and he laid out this immaculate case of why he was accumulating a lot of bitcoin. So, after that, i started just doing technical analysis waiting for price action and it had been consolidating this wide, ranging kind of wedge or triangle pattern for a period of time.
Now all the way, through this whole thing from 2008 well 2013 onwards. When i first discovered bitcoin, i said well. The next recession is when crypto macro meet, because the next recession is gon na, create extreme outcomes for central banks, and people will not be comfortable with it, and it will completely accelerate adoption into this new digital world and ive been talking about this parallel financial universe. For since 2013 – and it was very clear to me where it was all going – and so it was march – i very um done a very good job, predicting the um covert crisis and a recession that was coming anyway and the acceleration of those two things into. One point i knew was going to be really ugly and i was very long bonds into that and short equities and did extremely well, but into that march, sell off bitcoin collapsed to the bottom of the range of that wedge, and that was it. That was my signal because that chart pattern im, usually pretty good, with figuring out that it means something, and it was the kind of time horizon pattern that works well. For me, the halving had happened. Everything was in place, so so i bought it and then it broke the top of the wedge and i said right: thats thats the confirmation, so i added to it and then, as the next few months, developed and bitcoin accelerated, i started looking at the charts of Bitcoin versus other assets, because i have a finite amount of capital and im like where can i make the most returns? And i looked at it and realized that bitcoin was about to outperform everything on earth, including the fed balance sheet.
I the amount of monetary printing or debasement thats going on, and if that was the case, then it was suboptimal to have my money in any single other asset on earth except bitcoin. So that was it. I put every single penny that i had and and subsequently every bit of cash that ive had spare since that day into crypto. I then was 100 bitcoin up until about october november, and ive been following the chart of eth and the eighth bitcoin cross, and i realized that ethereum was likely to outperform bitcoin ive been a fan of eth from the beginning. I thought the first phase would be the store of value and then that would drive understanding of the broader crypto opportunities and what was going on and defy had obviously just started taking off and was coming on the radar screens. And so i thought, okay, so i started allocating to eth reducing my bitcoin and then eventually had a larger weight in ethan bitcoin and then started adding alt coins um, and these were what i did. I took a dumb basket, cryptocurrencies and tokens because i couldnt pick one from the other, so i did the typical macro thing. I took an equally weighted basket of a bunch of large caps that basically broadly covered the space from d5 to decentralized exchanges, etc and then just bought those and sat on them and they exploded higher. As people started going out. The risk curve, which is very typical in financial markets, so you know lets, say in equity, market, bull markets, usually what happens? People buy the s p or whatever.
First then, they start looking at smaller stocks and then they start going to emerging markets, and then they end up in frontier markets really really common. This is how you drive returns over the cycle, so thats what i did and then i started adapting that position. Even more so i i sold more bitcoin bought more more ethan, then also added to where i thought the macro bets lay in the space, as opposed to the dumb bet of the all the altcoins in a basket, and the macro bet for me is social tokens And the metaverse, which is where i think this is all going and thats probably a five year time horizon its like this – is where its all going everything thats happening. Now, all the fighting over.