Crypto Trading Tips – Dollar, Gold, Silver & Stocks correlation, 17th Sept 2021
Uh the vix has continued to slightly decline, which is good for crypto bullish. For crypto, we still need to break below that 18 to 20 level to really have a risk on environment. Dixies been up today. Well talk about that uh gold down pretty big today, nikkei continues to run north and spx and ndx both continue to just march upwards. With the plunge protection team, stepping in anytime theres a minor dip, the dxy again, you know this is certainly problematic for my polish q4 thesis for crypto, because historically, if dixie is bullish, crypto is not bullish, despite all the fundamental reasons why dixie should not be bullish. Here we are with the technicals painting, a pretty convincing inverted head and shoulders set up along with a bullish, tk cross here in the next couple weeks on the cloud which is a short, close signal. If it occurs below the cloud, you also have a flat kumo level at 96, and you have the measured move of the chart pattern from 96 to 98.. So i hope this doesnt play out obviously going to continue to watch it, and if this is bullish, its unlikely that we have an explosive q4 and we can look at past previous correlations. You know when crypto was bullish. We do have some bullish correlation with dixie, but for the most part, this thing has trended inverse to dxy. Gold, like i said, had a big down day, potentially painting an inverted head and shoulders here over the next week in general, this things just a giant mess of a trend, not nothing real serious happening here, trend wise and the correlation there with btc in in this Panel here has just mainly been all over the place.
You know it. Hasnt really held high correlations or low correlations for an extended period of time, other than 2013 2014. So you cant really say you know. If gold is risk off, kryptos risk off, not really thats, not how its stacked up uh silver, pretty much broke. The setup that i had been watching and hoping would play out im still holding my silver position, because why not um? It is getting a weekly bearish. Tk cross, which is telling you its definitely done as far as any uptrend is concerned in the near term, and youd, be waiting for bullish, tk recross above the cloud for any additional long entries or adds to positions here. At this point it probably goes to 2125 or whatever. This is on the cloud legacy. Markets operate extremely slowly relative to crypto. Hence why im looking at the weekly here i mean this thing was in a range for eight years before it broke out um. So just keep that in mind if youre watching this legacy stuff nikkei broke out of that falling channel over the past couple weeks, uh looks good, looks very reminiscent of you, you quad. U, whatever people call this thing um had some sort of nonsensical. Nothing really at the top, i guess a w and then exploded a lot of energy stuff lately. If anything, this inverted head controllers at the bottom was beautiful. Not only was it a chart pattern, but it was also a pretty clean cloud breakup as well.
This is like the golden setup. Whenever you get chart patterns with cloud breakouts on higher time frames, this is even more obvious on the weekly, for example, youd see a pretty clean head and shoulders plus cloud breakout. So this thing still looks good energy stuff is happening. All over the world in in a not so good way, so expect that to continue to do well, uh spx, i mean what are you gon na say its still being held up just barely at the 50 ema on the daily. But ultimately, this thing will re test the 200 eventually unsure when but uh still hanging on my thread here at 44.72 ndx looks a little bit better, but it also has not touched the 200 day moving average since corona march 2020. So when reality sets in and the money printer burring stops or slows down um, this thing will probably also retest the 200 if those both drop, that is not bullish for crypto. That signifies risk off scary scenes type of situations for investors. Uh gme still looks fine to me again. This is in fantasyland makes no sense why its up here still but on trend. If this things breaks above the four hour cloud, looks pretty good for bullish, continuation, potentially on trend, and if this thing breaks 320, they could go to five honestly, based on the measured moves of the range amc, almost more bullish than gme here, which again makes no Sense to me they announced today that theyre taking a bunch of crypto for concessions and tickets.
I assume, but on trend. This thing looks like its ready for another leg. Up looks really good to me for bullish continuation here into q4 and speaking of meme stonkery doge btc does not look good. It looks like its on its last legs of nullifying this potential mess of an inverted head and shoulders. It would need to get above 600 sats 650 really to take this pattern seriously. This is more just a wait and see watch situation um, but if the meme stonks explode, i expect doge to follow with it. Anybody trading that stuff is also very likely trading doge. As far as buying knives on this, i wouldnt touch this until its back to at least somewhere near 100 sats and on the usd pair it looks equally bad. It has to bounce here at the 200 day moving average. The cloud is already telling you be careful. This is a bearish kumo breakout. It had an edge to edge attempt if thats failed. Its gon na have a 5200 death cross. If this continues to drift, lower and youve got all these people at above 25 cents who are trapped here. If this thing makes lower lows, theyre gon na start to panic and capitulate 100 um, especially because the people that brought it here at least many of them – are retail. At the very least, the people still left, who have not exited their positions, are probably retail hoping for doge to a dollar meme or something which, if gme and amc, move up in a big way, sure doge will go with it.
But um where this sits. Right. Now, today, on trend does not look good at all, especially relative to everything else in crypto, which looks decently. Okay, uh, robin hood speaking of bearishness, continues to just it looks like zcash honestly, i tried to put a pitchfork on this. There isnt really one its more of a like slow death curve um. I would watch the hourly cloud if this thing pulls above the hourly cloud, then i like it for a long, but if uh the sec or whoever is going after them for payment for order flow. Whatever you want to call that um theyre, probably at risk of uh regulatory shenanigans, messing with the chart here, its probably causing some uncertainty amongst people and youre just seeing natural selling take place after the initial ipo euphoria. So i still think this is fine to watch anything above 45 looks good to me. Coin is just a mess of a sideways nonsense. Again regulatory risk here you could probably argue m double top inverted cup and handle. I dont know this doesnt look bullish by any means. You definitely dont want to see this thing break 225, just a nothing mess here, not much going on on the chart. There msdr continues to sort of drift lower after this head and shoulders break down kind of. In the range, though, at 620, so just a giant range that this things in from four to eight, if cryptos bullish in q4, its gon na this things gon na bust through eight pretty easily, but as it sits right now, you know it looks like coin.
Just a mess of a nothingness – really i mean you could probably argue bearish flag here, but i dont, i dont, see anything tradable here in higher time frames. Anyway, the gbtc and ethi discounts have been holding kind of where they were over the past few weeks. Nothing plus or minus, in a big way. We have so many bitcoin etf proposals pending that are probably all going to get delayed, some of which are based on the future, some of which are based on the spot. Eventually, some of these are going to go through and its probably not gon na be just one, its probably gon na be multiple but uh. You know i dont think thats gon na happen anytime soon, certainly not by the end of the year. I wouldnt think now, if this goes increasingly negative, then potentially youre, seeing the etf stuff being priced in and thats assuming this doesnt convert to an etf. If people think this will convert to an etf, i think this goes back to parity with spot, but if people think other etfs are coming, this will probably go increasingly negative. I dont know why ltc is positive at all and etc even pulled up a little bit here from negative 35 plus percent to negative 29. So i still watch these on the periphery um. I dont think theres anything tradable here, just its like a betting market for the etf stuff, pending potentially cme futures has a rollover next week, so we may see some increased volatility towards next friday and again this this.
I mentioned this last video i think, but this december 2019 contract nobody really trades these um on a higher time frame scale. Most of the volume is the front contract rolling, but if anybody was holding this on leverage from 2019 theyve made an absolute killing being down here in this trade from sub 8k to the current price. Lastly, ill just mention the eptc fund and d5 portfolio. I trade for ticket capital on enzyme.finance a non custodial portfolio management tool where you can send eth or usdc or just watch. What im doing you can see everything, including aum performance allocations.