WORSENING: Why Stocks and Crypto are Falling A LOT
Not only did i last week make a video saying im going cash, but before that ive been talking about raising cash through selling options like selling puts or selling calls, ive also been talking about my interest in rcc real estate cash crypto. Because of the lack of deals in the stock market well, now weve got a whole lot of uncertainty. The s p 500 right now is down. 2.2 percent weve got a lot of red in the stock market. It was a 90 red day for the s p. 500 and in this video im going to break down exactly why there is so much uncertainty, leading stocks and cryptocurrencies to fall, and when this uncertainty will go away, which we expect that when we have uncertainty, stocks and cryptos to fall. When uncertainty goes away, stocks and crypto should go back up, should no guarantees but its good to know what the underlying uncertainties are and have them all enumerated in a nice comfortable list and then align these with dates. In terms of when we expect these to go away so lets get started right now, right after i thank many of you for joining my amazing programs linked down below on building your wealth. Many of you joined after realizing that i did not win my election for governor in california, and so many of you were like well. That must mean kevins going to have lots more time to hang out with us and uh youre, probably right.
This is so anyway. Thank you to all those of you who hopped in and have been taking advantage of that coupon code that does expire this friday, but lets get to the list right now. Okay, number one: the fed this week is not just meeting and having their fomc meeting but theyre also releasing their new summary of economic projections. The sep is a big deal because it shows what the federal reserves expectations are for declines in things like the gdp and increases in things like inflation, we expect the federal reserve to substantially reduce the gdp forecasts of the gross domestic forecast product forecast and to increase Inflation forecast not just for this year, but possibly also going into 2022.. I also expect that the federal reserve will have a hawkish tone on tapering uh this year at some point, probably not in the september meeting. That is probably not going to hear about a taper happening in in two or three days here, but instead some kind of reiteration that the taper will happen this year. Just not now, and obviously the next meeting is november 4th so thats, really when the eyes will be uh focused on the tapering actually happening point is, though, both of these items are going to create uncertainty, uncertainty over how much the uh federal reserve projections have changed. How weak has the economy really gotten? Has the economy really started to decelerate in terms of growth as much as we expect and is the fed? At the same time of this weakening still going to be focused on tapering, which of course, we expect that they will not taper this month because of weak jobs and higher inflation readings.
But what are they going to tell us about the next? The outlook for the rest of the year is the economy going to be weaker, while at the same time were still going to get a taper. Both of those would be bad news and thats kind of what were expecting right now. In fact, so many analyst firms, including goldman sachs and morgan stanley, have almost all across the board, revise down their gdp growth expectations to the point where there are even some estimates that for some quarters of next year we might be growing at literally zero, an annualized Rate of zero for our gdp, which is crazy, uh, so these these are also negative catalysts. These are things that are creating concern in the market. Morgan stanley says that their base case scenario right now is a 10 correction in the s p. 500, with a bear case scenario of a 20 correction in the s p, 500 were still not even yet at a 5 correction from highs that we had just a couple weeks ago were at like a 4.2 percent correction. Anyway, though, these create lots of uncertainty, china and its regulation has created a lot of uncertainty in the tech space and lately in casinos in the gambling space or alibaba, specifically because china has been expressing interest in regulating more. And let me ask you this: what do you think caused the ever grand crisis in china where they have over 300 billion dollars of debt, that theyre defaulting on and theyre the second largest real estate developer in china uh? Was it either a too much regulation or b too little regulation? Obviously, here too little regulation would lead a property developer to go nuts with debt im, not the biggest fan of too much regulation at all, but chinas not going to be looking at evergrand going.
We regulated too much and thats why they failed uh, uh, chinas gon na be empowered by this. China is going to be emboldened, chinas very likely to go uh yeah yall left up, and this is just the catalyst we needed to crack down on everybody else. So not too optimistic here about chinese related stocks and im pricing in bigger discounts for more regulation coming from the chinese government. They, this is embarrassment to them. This whole ever grand contagion its a disaster. Now i do expect it to be mostly contained. I mean i did a whole video on this. You can check that out just type in me, kevin evergreen, but i do expect this to to be somewhat uh contained, but the fear of it will still be here then, of course, and weve touched on this briefly. But a little bit more detail: growth is decelerating, people are saving more money, but consumer confidence is declining, leading to some lower spending. People like kathy wood are suggesting that people already have the things they wanted to buy like the cars, the tvs and the ipads. The you know, iphones and the laptops and stuff and and now were kind of just waiting to watch if services are going to inflate up, but really that were seeing a growth deceleration. Note that a growth deceleration doesnt mean youre going to negative growth. It means youre growing, but just at a slower pace so like if its all of a sudden its like wow, we sold 30 more ipads compared to last year.
Well, maybe now its like. Okay, we sold like two percent more ipads right. Thats growth deceleration its not not shrinkage, nobody wants shrinkage, but anyway, so we dont really expect revenues at companies to go down, but at the same time as you have growth deceleration, its also likely that you could have whats known as a margin, squeeze or margin compression Occur, this is basically when companies become less profitable because the input costs of wages and products go up. So let me simplify that if you sell an iphone for fifteen hundred dollars and it costs you nine hundred dollars to manufacture it. But now all of a sudden, the cost went up to a thousand dollars. But you can only sell the iphone for fifteen hundred dollars and twenty or fifteen twenty five, so in other words, your costs went up by a hundred dollars and your your sales potential went up by 25. You are losing 75 dollars of gross profit, and that is where margin compression comes in because we calculate margin by determining okay cool. What percentage of your sales were you able to bring in as operating profit right? And so, if your costs go up and the amount that youre selling the product for cant go up as much, you end up with margin compression. So this is actually something thats, not very good for corporations either, because, ultimately, we want cash flow from companies that we invest in uh anyway. Lets get to the next issue.
This is an interesting one. Okay, when the delta variants started soaring in late july and early august, there was this kind of international move into united states stocks as a flight to safety thats, really because the united states is seen as having uh, you know, probably being one of the most advanced Countries in terms of covert vaccination compared to, of course, developing countries right its certainly not as well as like israel or the united kingdom, but compared to developing countries. The united states is pretty decent and weve got a very strong stock market, so that made united states stocks attractive as a potential flight to safety. Now, though, as were kind of seeing peak delta its possible that people are kind of withdrawing their money from the u.s stock market, also helping kind of hurt and push down the stock market which the uh as ive been recording. This video, the s p 500, has kind of just kind of continued to go red here, uh for what its worth. This is kind of what it looks like this is your day, uh on the one minute chart here on the s p, 500, a little bit of euphoria and then yep nope, just kidding, oh dear, oh dear, oh dear uh, anyway, that led me to tweet, which You should follow me on twitter, led me to tweet that uh, the black friday sale is just the beginning, but anyway uh. The next thing is look.
Valuations are high right now there are few. There are. There are few few few great deals in the market right now, in my opinion, thats, because of just loftiness and valuations at the same time were seeing kind of a pullback as folks are de risking, which is exactly why stocks and cryptocurrencies are falling. In my opinion. Now uh, it is also a concern that we have a debt limit debate coming up and that its possible, the united states, could default on its obligations by mid october. If we do not raise the debt limit by september 30th, this will create a lot of drama in congress over the next 10 days here, and we also expect drama around the infrastructure package. Will we raise corporate tax rates? Will we raise a capital gains? Tax rates? Will we get that three and a half trillion dollar infrastructure package passed, which is basically – and this is the part that gives the market chest palpitations its kind of like? If, if you have three and a half trillion dollars of debt, and then you give three and a half trillion dollars of stimulus checks today like that would be good. That would prop up the market today right because people would be buying stuff like crazy. But if you all of a sudden, say, hey lets, raise taxes today, but then spend three and a half trillion dollars over 10 years. Then thats not as juicy not as juicy at all, especially again, taxes are going up while at the same time youre not seeing the benefit of that uh for quite a while.
So when you put all this together, you get this basket or this. This hodgepodge of real, like ugliness and uh uncertainty, lots of uncertainty, people dont like uncertainty, uh at all anytime. We have uncertainty markets fall. I mean think about the fact that, right before the election at the 2020 election, we had a lot of uncertainty in the stock market had like a six percent correction to the downside. When we have uncertainty, stocks fall its that simple uncertainty stocks fall. So when will the uncertainty go away? Well, thats? What we talk about this right now. I believe that uh lets see ah interesting, okay, so uh yeah, just reading an update here about the sec versus ripple case thats a whole another discussion to be had all right lets talk about the end to uncertainty, so number one, the evergrand uh debacle and the Peak drama of this will likely be over this week. I think we will have a resolution by friday in terms of how bad its actually going to be so well know that doesnt mean the entire issue is going to be resolved, but i think well have more answers by friday. I also expect that the debt ceiling will be raised, though i do think thats going to take about another 10 days to get to. I think thats going to be a very last minute event. Well likely have some kind of stop gap, bill or continuing resolution. We do have a vote in the house of representatives for the bipartisan infrastructure deal scheduled for september 27th, which is next monday.
This could be a good opportunity for us to also raise the debt limit well see. So next monday has the potential for some optimism where the evergrand deal is, or debacle has hopefully faded away. The disaster of this debt limit has faded away, but we also have the potential that by next week well have new updates again to covert numbers or covert numbers going to continue declining down. That would be very positive for the stock market by october 13th. Well have inflation readings again, which i expect to inflict down. Ive always been saying that i expect inflation to go down for september and october, which remember those reports come out in october and november. So hopefully, this is kind of like the pain before the excitement of of when inflation starts, inflecting down or ill just be wrong again. But when you put all this together here, the fed news this week, which once this week is over, i expect well digest the news and then well move on. This will be positive for the stock market. The ever grand debacle over this week that should be positive stock market debt ceiling getting raised and the bipartisan infrastructure package that one trillion dollar version getting passed should be positive. The delay on three and a half trillion dollar deal that could actually be positive as well cove declining positive as well october – 13th. Inflation data. I expect to be positive, so when you put all this together, we actually, in my opinion, should not have that long of pain.
No guarantees, though i mean look at what happened in february. We had like three or four months of pain right, but its worth mentioning that a lot of the pain catalysts we have right now are temporary, uh and temporary to the tune of really like one to four weeks max. So just my thoughts right now i am looking for buy the dip opportunities. I have not bought the diff. I have a lot of cash sitting around and anytime i buy the dip. I will be sending alerts immediately to all those of you in the stocks and psychology of money group and folks. Thank you. Thank you for watching this video well see in the next one.