OCTOBER MIGHT BLAST OFF THE CRYPTO MARKET BUT WHAT IF…
Take a look at the case for a bear and a bull crypto market coming in october, leading into november and december, when we will take a look and what we need to look at is just to uh. We really want to hope for the best, but uh expect the worst or prepare for the worst and for that were going to take a look at a case for the long bear market or an extended bull market were going to take a look at factors such As ripple institution adoption, eth, 2.0 and last were going to finish up with, i think one of the scariest things uh retirement and a new study that was out that uh will probably shock you into what it actually says so well take a look at all those Things but first take a lets, go on the market today it is monday and we were down yet again, not that much uh just about about a point or so, but were at 1.91 trillion. The sentiments looking pretty good bitcoin daily sentiment is 71 out of 100 thats, pretty darn bullish, thats the most bullish ive seen in quite some time actually daily, 7 7.54, and this is from trade the chain. If you want to check this out its all about sentiment, analysis, it scrapes all the interwebs and the different blog posts has a direct api integration to uh twitter, so uh theres, a link in description, look something like this and you can check that out.
So lets. Take a look at whats going on with the individual coins and which ones are up which ones are down today, like you dont. If, yes, if you dont, know bitcoin about the same 43 ethereum around uh geez, it drop below 3000.. Look at that 29.96, not too bad four percent down for cordon nothing but great news on cordano and look what happens down four percent. What are you gon na? Do maybe uh, maybe some more great announcements well push it lower. Who knows. Salon is up three percent thats, pretty great tara, uh right, riling right up ten percent, one percent for algorand good projects there and six percent. But if you notice the one hour looking pretty pretty green somewhat, maybe were seeing reversal and so on and so forth. So thats the market uh in honesty, uh quite boring and uh, really what it comes down to is that september. We all knew it was gon na be a bad month and it did not. Disappoint. Lets take a look at what we have as far as this case for a long bear market and really just jump in. So this was a pretty good uh article and it talks about the significant factors as to lengthen this. They say crypto market crash, but in reality its a its a bear market, and when you read this, you have to kind of take a look at all different angles as far as what it is.
So if we scroll down here, let me come back in so really whats going on is were going to take a look at some factors that can really play a big part and the one that i think is one of the most important that the xrp armys Been talking about quite a lot is the ripple lawsuit and it makes a lot of sense because, and it states youre very simple – simply it makes a total sense if the sec wins the suit. If the sec wins the suit, it could hint that it has. The upper hand in the decision making process of crypto adoption the u.s and the long term result could be a pullback from institutions and investors. I think thats partially correct, really really what it comes down to is. If, if the sec wins, then it has to actually establish what a security is which gary ginsberg has not given any clarity so far, so really, if, if they win, were kind of going in that direction anyhow, i personally dont believe that its going to be a Slam dunk win for the sec, i dont think theyre going to win period. I think whats going to happen. The most likely outcome is that ripple, uh, brad, garlinghouse and larson theyre gon na just have to um pay. A fine and move on just like egos did, on the other hand, if they went out right, then it will be game. On xrp will skyrocket in price.
It will be probably a top five crypto. I know thats here uh heresy, but i think thats whats going to happen and then everything else is going to go up like a rocket ship, so hope im rooting big time for those guys and then down here. It talks about theres, really one. Two three three big things as far as like bullish catalysts, and these can be bullish or bearish in all honesty, so, regulatory clarity, and if you want to know what the clarity is for gary ginsler on the sec, we did a video on that where they came Before the house committee or for the senator committee on banking – and they pretty much just said, this look everythings a security thats, what gary pretty much said and thats the way theyre going down for also institutional adoption. Ethereum merge are major bullish catalysts. So when theyre talking about this lets just stick with the institutional adoption, and i think we can all agree theres a lot of that going on right now, theres a lot of different institution adoption of whats happening. But i really do think that behind the scenes, if we dont remember whats happening in this, space were kind of just kind of stuck looking at that those those prices, the actual market and go oh well its down. So its not worth too much. Remember its not about the price, it is about the value of the actual asset, and i can tell you right now.
This is a pretty good asset. So if we take a look at institutional investment, our institutional adoption heres a nice little snippet story where uh morgan stanley yeah those guys doubled down on the grayscale bitcoin trust uh. The bank owns 58 000 shares up from 28 000 last quarter and, of course, look if we would have gotten this news in 2017 uh the market would have skyrocketed, but it seems like people just have this memory or they just kind of have amnesia like. Oh, this is going on. This is adoption. This is actually good news. Now, on top of that, as far as institutional adoption uh, we can hear theres a little report from jp morgan where he states institutional investors are preferring ether over bitcoin and uh. This is analysis of the cme futures buying activity by jp morgan, bitcoin features, prices and spot prices had weakened and shifted from positive to negative in september uh. The difference between the ether, future prices and spot prices remain positive and actually increased uh during this month. So, even though weve had a pretty cruddy month as far as crypto were doing pretty well as far as like for institutional adoption, now dont get your hopes up so much because you know these guys. We we consider these guys the smart money and, of course, theyre. The ones that front run everything but theyre not and heres a great example uh. This is from cnbc. This is back in 2017 and it says uh i like this one.
It says jamie dimon says if youre stupid enough to buy bitcoin youll pay the price one day. This is on october 13th, an update on october 16th 2017.. What are they talking about here? Well, yeah thats. What he said before then. Today he comes out and says: you know what uh the bitcoin price could 10x in the next five years: thats jamie dimon, ceo of jpmorgan chase, so again, uh dont. Consider these guys the end all be all and the smart money, because really what theyre doing is they think theyve got it, but in reality some of the smartest people are already in the crypto space. I think other people are being left behind so thats, just how thats just the way i see it. Let me know what you think about that in the comments section and then to move on with this case ethereum, and it talks about the second phase of the ethereum 2.0 upgrade aka. The merge which well see the ethereum network makes the switch the beacon chain, as its consensus mechanism, remains another possible bullish trigger its bullish or its bearish. If we have any more delays, which youve already had a couple ethereum, they do delay here and there, but theyre trying to do a pretty darn uh difficult thing if this gets delayed. I think this could actually push us out to an elongated, more bearish scenario for ethereum. However, i will say this: if we take a look at ethereum, this is from ethereum.
org and it talks about whats going on as far as the the um conversion from ethereum to ethereum 2.0, and just so you know it. Talks about the beacon chain were already here. Its actually three levels – the beacon chain uh – brings staking to ethereum already were already. There lays the groundwork for future upgrades and will eventually coordinate the new system. The merge and you see down here the estimate – estimate 2021. weve got three months to go, so i hope they pull this one off. The mainnet ethereum will need to merge with the beacon chain at some point. This will enable staking for the entire network and single the end of energy intensive mining, and you have to remember one thing, because i think theres going to be more stories coming about this is that eth 2.0 hasnt hit its mark and its not going to hit Its mark until 2022, when shard chains come about shard chains, will expand ethereums capacity to process transaction and store data. The shards themselves will gain more features over time rolled out in multiple phases. This is in 2022. I do not see e 2.0 uh coming in until late 2022, all the way until 2023 and thats, just how i see things and unfortunately, some people say thats thats awful. But what not, but look as as bad as it is uh for as we talk about ethereum 2.0 and its really, not that bad. If you really think about it, i want to take a look at this.
This is from uh friends of the show crypto quant, and this is all exchange reserves for ethereum, and i want you to notice one thing here and that is see this bluish purplish line right here very nice, very nice line uh. This is the exchange reserve. So when you have a lot of ethereum on the exchanges, this means theyre like hey. We got a lot of product here, come on in and buy it and uh people like sure ill. Do that and theyre buying it like crazy. This is back in 2020 and then the reserves would dip then would come up the less that the exchanges actually have as far as reserve. Usually, the price will go up because theres the same demand or maybe more demand and less supply, and here we kind of bounce around a little bit and boom big one and then all of a sudden. We have a little bit more as far as like uh the supply is back on the exchanges. Then it goes down. Price goes up so, but look where were at now. This is the odd thing this is. The very odd thing is that we are dipping into some pretty low marks here. As far as like the reserves, ethereum only has on on all exchanges. All exchanges – 18 million up here, were looking at 24, almost 24 million down here, 18 million and its only getting worse. So when we think about the bullish cases well, just for ethereum looks pretty darn good.
What about what about bitcoin? As far as like the exchange flows, well, if we take a look at that bitcoin itself – and this is all the exchanges as well look up here – look how much bitcoin they had uh back gosh. What is this uh? This was september. This is a year ago, thats, a ton. Then, of course we go down here and it kind of falls a little bit different patterns. But i want you to notice one thing: where are we at right? Now? We dont have a lot theres 2.3 million, roughly bitcoin on all the exchanges and the price has been kind of fluctuating. It really didnt help with that stupid china story and that flood story about them banning for the 20 000th time. But here we are so when we take a look at supply and demand. I think this is quite a bullish case and thats just how i see it get back to the story we have to. We talk about the bullish, lets talk about the bearish real quick about what could potentially happen so with the last part here is that the possible long term bearish catalyst that could tank the market. It makes a lot of sense. Bearish factors include the delay of a bitcoin etf, so says this one. So far there have been more than 12 bitcoin etf filings me personally. I dont care about a bitcoin etf. We talked about this on the dca show and uh ive been hearing about this forever and it never comes to pass.
So if we, if we get another one that doesnt come through, i dont think its gon na make a difference that much what will make a difference is if it does go through and people say well. Who cares? You really got uh bitcoin by proxy in uh, microstrategy and grayscale. You can get into it with the business i mean just going through the all the bitcoin that they buy, but its not like a stock or an etf. However, i will say this uh. I always talk about this. I think that theres a lot of money on the sidelines who are used to dealing with etfs older money, who just dont like the risk and dont like to go through exchanges, and things like that. Like just give me etf, i already have millions and millions of dollars. I dont need to risk it that much you have to understand when you make a ton of money, its not like you have to risk yourself out. There youve already got it so youre like i just want this to grow, on the less risk that i possibly have whats the whats, the least risky. Give me an etf and thats, where i think a lot of money is going to flow into also as far as a bearish crackdowns from the sec again well see what happens with ripple and then the longevity of the ever grande crisis. Uh, of course, uh. As you may or may not know, china is bailing them out as they are not printing money, theyre, just pretty much dumping money in the market to kind of uh save ever grande and the um and their investment property.
So really, when all comes down to it, i dont see much of a bearish scenario. I mean it could happen, look equities could fall, stocks would go down, um, a new black swan event could happen. Anything can happen and thats why you have to be careful, but in all honesty i just dont see how we cant see in the next two three four months i mean a pretty meteoric rise again. This is just investment opinion on investment advice, but there is one thing that scares me, and that is this. I saw this. I just saw this. I was putting out the video, i put everything together retirement and what were talking about here. This was a new article from uh behrens barons, retirement, u.s, slips and retirement index, and 682 000 plus seniors are behind on their mortgage. Why are they behind the mortgage because they cant pay their mortgage and if they cant pay just the basics, a roof over their head and uh? They cant pay for everything else. Then do you think they really have a retirement fund? And you think the social security is going to really bail them out. I dont know where youre at, but in america we have social security thats supposed to help people out, but people treat social security as the end all be all in all honesty, uh. That is not it. I want to thank uh james from the best answers from posting this on twitter and uh.
I see this and i just i get a little anxious, because when we see these types of things i mean whats gon na happen with the elderly population, im pretty sure its, not just america, im pretty sure a lot of countries have a lot of different problems With uh retirement, so in all honesty, if you think about it, if your retirement fund is a 401k and again this is not investment. Advice whatsoever. This is remember. Crypto is very volatile, but i will say this: if youre just look at the s, p, 500 and just regular stocks, s p 500 is you know pretty good, pretty safe. But if we take a look at this and we blow this up over the last day when youre down .081 thats – not the big thing i want to talk about what i want to talk about is over the last year over the last year, you have made A and this is a pretty great year – 32 32 thats cute thats adorable uh. We called it a tuesday in crypto. Now we also go down a heck of a lot, so if thats, what it is, but if youre, if you cant, afford your mortgage, you cant afford other things. This isnt going to save you and then lets take a look at five years. Oh, you would have doubled your money thats pretty good in five years and then max. I dont know how long max is uh pretty good.
Actually, this is from if you had invested all the way back here, but i guarantee you as far as investments, you probably made a two or three extra money and hopefully its a lot, but in all honesty a lot of people are probably right around here. Double their money and theyre probably having a lot of problems anyhow. This is why i think bitcoin digital assets and crypto is uh is a prime market and thats just for me, i cant tell you what to do, but that is it for today. So look uh that is it uh for right now, if you stuck with me all the way, the end, i want to say thanks so much. I appreciate it if you liked todays video go and give a thumbs up, give it a like uh. Consider subscribing everything. Talk about is time, sensitive and thats all so thanks so much.