Bitcoin trend says Down but it's still holding support. BTC, ETH, Crypto Technical Analysis
You can see were just stuck within this zone: okay between us, 44, 45, 000 down towards 40 000.. This little 5 000 range that we do have right here and at some point this is going to have to get some breakout from this range in one direction or another, which will lead, of course, to bigger price targets, either to the downside or to the upside. On this now i do have a video that i have been preparing, which is going to go over just some of the things that you could possibly expect from q4, as we do. Draw q3 to a close. Uh were coming up to this end of september period, and then we are going into these last few months of the year, where i think big things are going to happen within the cryptocurrency space. Now i do have both bearish very bearish and very bullish scenarios, and a couple of little things in between that. I do want to cover, but thats going to be in another video, really looking at a lot of the the macro stuff thats going on um. How the on chain analytics are looking how the general kind of state of the world is looking im, really looking towards yeah what we can expect as we go into this last quarter and do set up for 2022., but in this video really. I just want to be focusing on these shorter time frames again taking things level by level and looking at what i expect in the very near future.
Okay, so looking in on this at the moment, okay, we can see were still within this really important area. Okay, i do see this as an area to be accumulating now that doesnt mean that we cant drop lower um. But ultimately i see this as being still a very low risk area between this 42 to 40 500 area to be accumulating, um long positions or spot positions. But we do have to be aware that downside could come okay and im going to go over. That. First of all in this video, because at the moment everything so far with whats been going on is pointing towards more downside. Okay, so we can see here where we were taking our first set of shorts up at these 52 000 once again compounding those short positions down into this zone here, which has started to now look like an accumulation region, so you can see the downtrend okay, so You have a high, a low low, high, lower low, lower high and now were continuously making these lower highs. You can see this starts to consolidate within this area. Okay – and i am expecting a break of this – probably maybe not even until the end of the month. At this stage, i do think that this grind could continue down um for the next couple of days, but realistically what we are looking at at the moment is a few things on these larger time frames that have started to to play out here so im just Going to switch over onto which chart is it that ive been looking at um.
Here we go okay, so this is one of the Music. The important charts that i would like to to kind of bring up on this okay. So here is a big monthly level on bitcoin right. This is our monthly level from august. Okay, and what were looking at at the moment is were testing that okay thats its as simple as that were testing that towards the end of the month. We are testing this um 41 500 area, which is our monthly open from august now. What i would, i think, is really important from a macro perspective. Is that you wouldnt, want to see this candle in september turn into an engulfing bearish candle, taking out these lows and getting a close below on this candle as we come into the end of the month, so thats. The first thing thats really important for myself on this chart. The second thing that i want people to be aware of – and this isnt something i use often – but it is these moving averages, okay, so what we did have for the first time in quite a while. Was this close below the 21 ema on our moving averages? Now, usually, our 10 and r21 would be what you kind of need to hold the support in order to continue an uptrend, and we can see that weve had that close below, and we have started to search deeper down on this now. The next level, from a moving average perspective isnt until we get down to this 36 800 kind of region.
Okay. So if we do get continuation on this and we cant reclaim, these moving averages its very likely that well see this move down into this 36 800 region on the chart. Now again, if we do zoom back in on this okay, we can look at the daily as well. You can see these daily candles here. You can see these moving averages really weighing down price in it, finding it pretty hard actually to hold this 200 ema, so it is its kind of clinging on there were within this area of support, which you can see is accumulation, but you do need to be Aware of further downside, which could come so lets just remove these from the chart very quickly and go on to these lower time frames and, of course, the other thing that we do have that is potentially playing out. Is this descending triangle kind of formation? That is starting to form within this area that were in okay. We can see we have been having these higher highs as well as these higher lows, but i wouldnt say from like a closed perspective, youre looking pretty much at this 41k area as being the area that its been dipping into its just not been going quite as Deep each time, because, obviously thats volume you dont, need to kind of go as deep into this area, so we are seeing this descending triangle type pattern that could be playing out on here as well.
Now. The interesting thing about all of this is what this gives us is. It gives us a 50 or 55 week, ema that is coming in within this 36 800 region, okay, highlighted here by this white line. That also takes out these lows. So very significantly. What did price do back in june july? Okay, here are our lows: price came down took out these lows before eventually getting this reversal reversal. Okay, so were looking at this as maybe being a similar structure to what we had back here in january february, with the possibility that these lows could get taken. The other thing that this does give us is, if were to take a measured move from here to here, and we get a breakdown out of this. Is that same region? Okay, so we do have quite a lot of confluence that starts to get put together within just a very small region on this chart. You can also add some more confidence to that. So if we take it from our low up to our high heres, our golden pocket, okay, slightly above that level, if we go on to log scale because were talking bigger moves here, then that just does give us this uh golden pocket region, just very slightly below That level, so, once again, what were seeing on our golden pocket regions? Is this support around 36 700 or around 37 200? That kind of region on this chart so were looking at this as being a zone with a lot of confluence in it.
That could give a really good argument for a bounce if we are to see another move to the downside, so thats kind of first of all, i guess the bearish case, and that is something that we do have to be aware of what we can also do On this is have a look at our npocs, so if we zoom out a little bit on here, you can see, of course, that we do have these points of control further down here and of course, we do have a big void below not so much looking At this point of control, but we do have this big void below within this 36 36 800 kind of region um that again could get touched. If we do see a move again to the downside. Also on our weekly chart, okay, you can just see from our volume profile here this big area, very low volume and an efficiency on the chart that could price could search down and seek to fill within these same regions. Okay, so thats just again looking quickly at the uh, the footprint and all the the volume profile on there and just taking a look at some of the stuff that we do have going on there as well. So that does add a little bit more confluence to this zone. Okay, so this would be a region that i would be very interested in seeing if price were to come down here. What i think wed have to see, if that does happen, is a quick reclaim of this monthly level if we are to get continuation to the upside, because, as i said previously, i do see this as being a pretty reasonable area to be accumulating much the same As this was a very reasonable area to be accumulating back in july, of course, it got that flush down quickly reclaimed that level and then never really looked back until obviously were now here.
Okay, so we could be looking at that as something very similar. You accumulate has that flush lower, quickly, reclaims, and then we can continue on as normal on this chart. Now. The other option which we did go over on our trading room this morning is this would give like even more of a. I guess, a max payne scenario. Um that could come out of this is, if were at this support area right now and were getting squeezed into this area come the end of the month. What you often see is a first of the month pump second of the month, dump okay, and this could be that that really kind of great maximum pain that you would see for the retail trader. Getting this move out, because a lot of the market would, at this point, be looking at this triangle pattern and expecting completion on it. You would get that move out change that market structure, trapping people at the highs and then getting finally, that move down before. Of course reclaiming and then getting a move up out of there, and we did see again something very similar to like that which did happen on this previous accumulation. Okay, you can see here as price started to consolidate within this region, took the highs. Swept the lows, bounce and then back to normal, okay. Now, of course, the issue that we would have, if that were to happen and im just going over a few different thoughts here, of course, the issue we would have if that were to happen – and we do have people trapped at these highs and we do have People who have accumulated these lows, who havent been able to get out is, if we do come back into this area as soon as we do get back up into here and well be having to look at where the point of control is where the majority of Positions are within this range that could then act as very strong resistance, which, if we are going to see a bear market play out, it would be at that point where i think it would basically confirm to everything uh the direction in which were going to be Going into so, if we do see this move down and price cannot reclaim this 42k area.
I do think its highly likely that price enters a long term bear market a multi year bear market from that point. Okay, now, of course, none of this could happen. We could just break up out of here. We could change market structure and we could continue on with this bullish scenario that is playing out, but i did want to make people just very aware of the the case for caution. I guess at the moment with there is still the possibility that, although i have been buying this area, there is still a very high probability or a fairly high probability that we could be seeing price go lower. So that is kind of what i want to go over on this video today, just to just to make people aware of that other side of things um, which could play out now from a more local uh perspective. What were seeing at the moment is again were within this region of support, okay and until this does break its still a region of support and its still a region of support that im happy enough to be buying on these dips and looking for potential reversals out Of this, and if we do get a change of market structure, then that changes things completely so what we have had today is you bring this up onto here, and you can see our 786 083 our little pocket here, just above this monthly level. That, of course, is still being defended very heavily starting to get some nice absorption that we do see going along on this now again, just to back up this uh with what we have at the moment is we have throughout yesterday we saw people very very eager To be buying this dip, okay, we had this move down.
This grind down with cvd, going up and open interest increasing on the move down now, weve had a bit of a change. Theres been a bit of a shift with that today, whereas a lot of the people that were buying yesterday are now closing out of those positions or taking short positions today, and we can see these divergences starting to build okay, open interest, increasing a lot of selling Going on at these lows, which we didnt see yesterday so were starting to see, these increases in increase of short positions, long positions, starting to kind of flatten off um and now, of course, the the drops in open interest, which again is a little bit more healthy. On this, so itll be interesting to see how that goes. So we are at this local uh region of support, and i do think if we can reclaim the daily open, which is basically where this daily is okay. If we can reclaim this daily open, reclaim this v app at the same time, okay, daily open around here 42 lets just mark on the chart. I dont know why that has gone missing from my chart anyway. Music, one here, is our daily open. So if price can reclaim that can get back above the v wrap and start to hold above this area, then i would be looking back towards the week open on this as well, which was of course from yesterday and potentially looking at higher prices.
If we can uh reverse some of this downtrend that has been going on, so that would be the kind of more bullish case that we have at the moment we are seeing these divergences start to form. People are no longer buying this dip as aggressive as as they were back there weve seen that drop off in open interest. Maybe this has gone low enough, and maybe this is more of an accumulation phase that we are going into um. The other thing that i would like to go over very quickly on here is ethereum. Okay, so ethereum did get that move down of course into this region. So i have moved this. This was on my chart. Uh earlier is looking for yeah this region here, basically as being a potential support on the btc pair and again, what have we got on the ethereum weve come into this golden pocket in this daily level, which is very significant on the usd pair again on ethereum. We have at this stage still not so many charts it back over here, so we have taken out the daily open on here and we are back above v wap. So that is something fairly significant on the eth chart. At the very least, so you can see our daily open and prices come back above there and we could be reversing this. So ethereum once again does seem to be leading slightly over bitcoin on this chart, so ethereum looking decent bitcoin, looking a little shaky, the other alts as well, not really doing that much uh litecoin still holding this daily level um getting a nice move up as well.
On the the btc pair after a bit of a bit of a grind down over the past couple of days, so yeah, i think um weve got to be at the moment. Looking at this as a downtrend, which is exactly what it is, we do have our v wap above us that will be acting as resistance. We do have a daily open above us that will be acting as resistance, and we do have targets to the downside, which of course could act as support. I do think that it would be unusual, maybe at this stage, for these lows not to get taken but im still looking at this for a yeah as being again like, i keep saying a decent opportunity to buy, but of course be aware that there is the Possibility this could come to the downside, in which case i would be looking to be again a buyer at those levels in order to get a reversal to get continuation on uh back into bull market kind of zone again on here so yeah, i think thats. All. I really want to cover on this video um. We do, of course, have the 80 setup in play if, by some miracle, price can find its way back above basically, forty three thousand dollars today, i think the volume is very low, but if we can start to see that, of course, reclaim daily open, reclaim view Apps start to push back up up above here we do have this scenario where we could see.
Okay price comes in to forty three thousand dollars. We could see a move all the way back up to 44.. So there is that idea in play on this chart. As well and of course, if that starts to happen, youd be looking at this as being right. Things are starting to look better again. Youve changed this local downtrend. Can we start to change the the downtrend on the more high time frames as well um other than that uh really its just uh? This is all stuff for my other video, so i do have another video that i will be preparing later in the week. Uh. Just some interesting stuff about the the total transfer volume at the moment being incredibly high and it has been for a while. So, are we looking at that as being again mass distribution like weve, seen at these previous highs, with this just being a complete unloading of all money within the market, or are we seeing this as being more of an accumulation period where money is moving around in Order to get set for the next period of the spawn im going to answer those questions as best i can in a video that will hopefully come either later today or tomorrow, still doing a bit more research on that and uh yeah do look out for that. One, but as for this video today, i think thats everything thank you for watching and ill catch.