Raoul Pal: Investors MUST Buy Crypto Assets
That was quite a famous podcast. I think yes and a lot of people were like oh rauls, just being a doomsdayer, you know hes just calling uh the markets gon na turn over. This is gon na, be bad and then like within a week and a half. Everyone thought the market was going to zero right. I mean it just got real bad real fast. We obviously had the government step in. We had the interest rate manipulation. We had all the monetary and fiscal stimulus uh, and now we get all the way up until today. How do you evaluate where we are from a macro standpoint at the current moment, so i think its interesting. I always follow narratives, and the narrative right now is very much on this inflation ongoing growth, how the fed going to raise rates they have to taper soon, but the work that ive been doing suggests that the likelihood is the economy. The global economy slows down pretty significantly uh into next year and again we might see more stimulus and more fiscal stimulus coming as well, so i look at it very differently to what most people are seeing, but on the horizon, because of like the fiscal cliff weve Got like three and a half percent of gdp coming off from the fiscal cliff weve got all of the spending brought forward that everybody, including me, did up their houses over the over the previous year. Um weve also got the fact that oil prices have gone up that hits household expenditure.
Um prices in general hit household expenditure. You see these weird old things like the michigan university of michigan surveys about cars, houses and durable goods, because the prices all went up basically theyve gone to all time lows in terms of affordability, so people are stepping back were seeing in the housing market were seeing. All over the place, so these higher prices are kind of a cure for higher prices, as is often the case, and i think that thats going to lead to much slower growth than we expect and again. As i said, more stimulus, and so when we get slower growth and more stimulus does that continue to drive the prices higher and higher and its almost like a negative feedback loop because, as the prices go, higher growth slows and more become more and more dependent. On that kind of that external stimulus im not sure that prices go higher, um thats, a supply, driven issue that i think eventually disappears assets go higher and you know that in itself has been a problem, something you know, ive discussed, because if you cant buy a House, because youre 32 years old and your income doesnt go up because nobodys income is really going up, um then youre kind of getting screwed. You know and thats one of the whole premises behind you know why i got very very interested in in bitcoin early on was seeing this play through and i think its just going to continue.
I think theres so much debt in the system, theres so much leverage. I think the world is now four hundred and four hundred percent of gdp in debt that governments have now realized in the central banks that they cant let the collateral go bust. I, the asset side of the balance sheet, is not allowed to fall in price um, because if not, you get a big margin call on the economy, so it seems to be that debasement of currency to drive assets higher optically is the only answer. Theyve got now. Theres almost no way around it unless they can generate growth, that is reasonably, is higher than previous trend for a longer period of time and with this aging population, all of this indebtedness, globalization technology, the chances of doing that are low. So one of the things that we spent a lot of time talking about is, if you look at like a chipotle lets, use them as a proxy for uh kind of hourly wages. They raised wages three to four percent. They then passed that, through to menu prices up three to four percent, but if you look at somebody like, i think it was blackrock, they increased the uh firm, wide salaries, eight percent, its almost double, and so you almost get this like bifurcation. You get kind of white collar workers where they really understand inflation, et cetera, much higher increase, but at least they both increased right. So so there is some uh negating of the levels of inflation uh when you start to think about the everyday person, whether they are a white collar worker uh, or they work an hourly job, uh or maybe theyre, coming off of unemployment and just now kind of Coming back into the workforce, what is likely to be kind of their experience? If we continue to see asset prices, go up, wages, dont necessarily go up nearly as much and the government steps in is this in the form of just more kind of unemployment, boost and direct stimulus checks, and we eventually move towards like a ubi world.
Or is there something else that you think uh this could take? The form of i dont know and i dont think anybodys figured it out, but the problem is as you as youre saying, its right wages dont go up enough. The other thing thats missing from that wage construct is the fact that all the boomers are retiring in record numbers, so thats offsetting the amount of total demand in the economy, because a bunch of people go on no salary. Apart from on their savings, they didnt really save that much and then a few others get wage rises. But if you look at the debasement of the fiat currencies overall, thats going somewhere around 13 15 a year, so thats driving up asset prices at a minimum of 15 percent a year. So even if your wages go up, four youre the chipotle worker. Well, suddenly, you still cant afford as much of the s p and you still cant afford um as much. You know a house and all of the same things so youre still getting net poorer. So what is an asset thats? The important thing for people to understand here an asset is basically deferred expenditure, so you stick savings into something that you hope goes up enough in price to offset inflation and other things, and then eventually you get to spend it by selling that asset. Now, whether thats gold or whether its a house, particularly if its a second home that youre trying to rent out or do that kind of stuff, so those assets which are your future wealth are becoming harder to buy, so you can buy less of them.
So you are net getting poorer and i dont know how youre going to solve that equation. I think the next bet is that fiscal stimulus will do it, but i dont think thats going to be the case, because the chipotle worker is going to be laid off by robots and as simple as that were seeing in mcdonalds were seeing in many places. So, between artificial intelligence and robotics youre going to be competing um for salary with with somebody who gets exponentially cheaper in price, because computing power gets exponentially cheaper, so its a its a really really difficult situation. So i think theyre going to continue with the same path for the time being by the time the next recession comes um then i think thats a full roller roll out of ubi, because theres no way around it. I dont see how you rescue this situation.