He believed the end of the cycle lets talk about it, Music, hi. Everyone welcome to the channel if youre new subscribe below button leave a like happy to. Have you also a huge appreciation for the 30 000 followers on twitter? That is awesome. I know im an irritable pain in the ass, but i like to rant its funny im. A whinger im from the north, i like to whinge, so lets talk about this. Now this isnt um a dig or a griper bit boy, its more of the opposite, its more huge admiration for its brand, its growing its its a massive massive source of information as well. However, my gripe is with people people who just copy people blindly, whether you follow me whether you follow uh. Other analysts like operation crypto, whether its coins kid, whether its satoshi stack of crypto, daily bitboy mm crypto. If you like, thumbnails um everyones got a different taste right, but its down to you as an individual to kind of take on board information, thats been presented to you and maybe make your own decisions right. So remember this date i know weve gone past it, but also another one was done here: im selling all my crypto before end of october. Now absolutely fine, its a video, its yeah, probably half its a bit clickbaity in terms of the titles, but my gripe as ive said before is individuals that are just thinking. Well, not thinking, really, you know realistically, when you think about it.

So what were going to do in this video were going to go through what i believe is a cycle. What i believe is my opinion on it and looking at other sources of information that could kind of factor that in as to why maybe its not over yet – and i dont think its anywhere near over most people – know my content from the past ive kind of Predicted this cycle to go a lot longer, but hey ho thats my opinion, whether im, right or not well soon find out right. So an element of this is all due to the harvin reward right. If you dont know what this is. This is every four years the bitcoin reward for the miners is half so started off with 50. Then it went down to 25.. You, you get the picture right cool its easy. This is where a lot of the data comes out for the stock to flow ratio model and other models in terms of scarcity. Now we all know well, i know whether you know if youve been listening to the content, that a price coloration between bitcoin and all coins is measured through a thing called. Satoshis youve got every single asset, its governed by satoshis. If bitcoin does well, your usd does. Well, if bitcoin doesnt do well youre all going to dump and people panic right, so its one of those, so the first harbin event occurred on the 28th of november.

Then you got the 9th of july 2016 for the second one and then the 11th of may 2020, four days before my birthday, if you want to know, get me a card next time, ill be 31 next year, thats really depressing anyways moving on. So this is what the bitcoin chart looks like on pretty much a log scale, looking pretty tasty right now. This is where it gets interesting: im not going to use a bitcoin chart for this im going to use the overall market cap. Why? Because i think it makes more sense but lets talk about what bitboy actually was talking about, theres a few little things here in terms of reddit. So basically, if you google, it youll see it all over the place regarding those videos, people are talking about it. People are saying right: why does he think this? What what reasons and hes going from? Essentially the utility of bitcoin, post, harvin and a date going back in time here, 504 days from the previous? You know you know from the harvin essentially right, so that is the day after the harbin. The last one was 504 days. The peak of the cycle, it doesnt appear to be kind of following that kind of routine and thats. The one thing i want to talk about, i think it needs to be done from the overall market itself, including everything not just bitcoin, because even this year, theres been times where bitcoin has been a bit sluggish versus everything else now: stock to flow ratio.

Bit of information for you i like this, but i dont like that. Ive said this before. I think this is a pattern. It measures scarcity in the same way that this is measured. How inflation and time is is measured through monetary value and stuff like that right then, youve got other elements that we need to talk about in terms of quantitative easing and inflation rates right. However, this seems to be on course. We could be well and truly. On course, for a really high bitcoin at some point very very soon, which could be pretty damn interesting now, as you can see, numbers go up its one of those things whether we get to a million or not. I dont know who knows theres all kinds of different metrics and other things that could go wrong in that meantime, but lets talk about this im going to start again with this were going to remove the drawings and what were going to do were going to go Into the higher time frames and look at the log scale, because when we start looking at all of this right, that is a total two chart. That is everything excluding bitcoin right. If we look at this one as well total three, this is pretty much everything excluding bt and ethereum, but the one that we want is realistically this one everything now theres a little bit of a lapse of data, but it doesnt matter. We want to try and create the next one.

The next sort of cycle now, if were looking at the monthly chart, numbers, go up right, yeah cool sentiment based, but there will be a period where it will go down, but that appears, in my opinion, rather healthy. But i dont want to look at them monthly. I want to look at the weekly. You get a bit more of a picture now. Why is it so important? Because i personally believe and ive said this before youve? Had this massive, you know, this is, in my opinion, was the last bull cycle up to this point here. So what ive done in the past? If i can find it, let me get the date one there we go. So if were going to look at this a rough kind of situation where were looking at structure breaks where it creates a new high. So basically from this point here right continues going up and then it kind of forms a little bit of a its first time. Where it actually broke structure its roughly around 800 days right, give or take thats a huge run right 800 days were talking here now. That was the last cycle in terms of like a full from start to finish. The whole entire market were talking about everything here, because i think were going off, sentiment were not going off, dates were not going off, factors were going off, people pressure and obviously external pressure, governments, quantitative easing inflation rates, covered all kind of right.

It makes sense cool. Now this is where it gets interesting too. If were obviously looking at this situation here, let me just move that up a bit, so you can kind of see it roughly around that sort of time period where its 800 days give or take very, very rough by the way, its not its, not exact, but Its given us a rough kind of estimate that, knowing that, from this point here, weve created a new high and we just continue just going and then weve we broke structure here, weve broke structure there right now lets look at the next bit now again, weve got This low lower high lower low this didnt create a new it broke structure here here, but not on this peak, so continue going down even here, didnt do it and then down into this black swan event, which is a covid 19 crash and then finally, we created A new high here, so we could be saying that maybe just from august we might have just started and weve got a look at that point. So again lets have a little look at the. Where is it there? We go. So, if were gon na go from that structure, point here bear market. What if the bear market was again roughly around 800 900 days, it felt a long long time, obviously ive just gone from the date value, not in terms of how much has been lost by the way, so ignore the top look at the days.

Thats. 889. Now this is the element thats interesting bitcoin has predicted that in 500 and was it 504 days from the harvin. That is what essentially is going to potentially play out, but even if that does happen were already past it. But the way i look at this, in my opinion, if were starting this bull cycle from this point here now were not talking about elliott. Waves were not talking about all kinds of were just talking about trend momentum, just basic trend; analysis on the log scale, using the weekly time frame; very, very generic, very, very boring, but even if we are looking and ive done this before in a previous video oopsie, I need to get the right thing up. Idiot come on man sort your life ooh from this point here, if were going to go 800 days, give or take thats going to take us to potentially the end of 2020, which sounds crazy right. But realistically you look at that previous cycle. Look at the ball cycle, look at that bear cycle and then look at the elements there where with where we are right now now, even if right this section, if theres a bit of subjective subjectivity right where were looking at well, what, if you know what, if The black swan is the start of that cycle. Well, maybe it could be right if were going to go to the blacks one and were going to go in time back to this point here: okay, maybe 700, and whatever days right, okay, cool the bull market started when that blacks, one kind of happened.

Okay, it takes us a bit lower and we can go back in time a little bit right here on there. It could well go to q2 of 2022 right, so theres theres always room to grow right, but the reason why i say that is because this is actually has formed a higher low as well. But it depends on what you want to go for the conservative one. Maybe the higher high way to create a new high from this point or if you want to go from that point, its a black swan event cool, but im not picky right. So if were going to go from that variation of roughly 800 days from the past two, this one should be yeah. You would imagine it would get to at least 650 700, maybe even 750 days, at least, and that would take us into q4 and pass q4 into q1 and 2022 in a way. So when we start looking at what about a worst case, scenario right were going to go to just after christmas, thats still 644 days. So this is why i think its wrong. I think weve still got a bit more in a tank, but youve also got a look at other situations here. What else is happening, thats of absolute importance? Well, this is huge. This is the federal debt, its just increasing all the time, all the time, its increasing. What i feel as well, the dollar index is going to drop soon.

I think theres going to be another money print because of all the issues in terms of how much money they dont have theres going to be another print soon. Potentially, that could be of interest, and again you just got to look at all the other stuff in terms of the us 30.. This looks incredibly like toppy, but its still been held up even today. Right now, as i recall, this is up 374 points, its crazy. When you think about it – and i dont think this is over yet i think they can continuously just prop up these markets and bitcoin is going to start getting a flow and that flow is going to make a huge difference if were looking at the normal scale. By the way, this is kind of what it looks like on a normal scale, not as clear cut, obviously, but look at the way that weve just bounced right. The way back, if we are creating a new high were going to continue going on and q4 will be absolutely brilliant, so thats. What i think i do not think were over yet i think at least 650 days to maybe even 700 800 days potentially, but i dont think were going to just turn off the tap just yet the amount of people coming in this space. The amount of sentiment that is there is huge now everyones got an opinion and absolute credit to bitboy for doing a video in february 2020, stating this and hes held hes held it hes held it fair play, but it might well be wrong.

So remember guys: do your research make sure you understand how things are moving in this market and what to kind of buy at a good price and also when to also look to take profits? But when you look at the charts, i dont think weve had a proper blow off yet weve had a correction. Weve pulled right back up, but this is still when you look at the entire market.