You might least expect it. This, as the leverage ratio is getting lower and hodlers are refusing to sell. We have set the stage for a glorious q4 bull run and were going to be giving you the absolute best plays in the industry. If you love those sweet sweet, crypto games, then all you have to do is subscribe and put that bell notification on because were going to be bringing you the absolute keys to the kingdom here on this channel, and so, if youre excited smash that like button and Lets dive in were going to be starting here with some on chain analysis, because what we know is that, when the big holders, those big wallets, are refusing to sell thats when we get a supply shock thats. Why weve been talking about on chain throughout this entire bearish period, because when the big holders keep accumulating, despite price fluctuations to the downside, what we see is that smart moneys buying when scared moneys selling and that usually leads eventually to a supply shock, because once the Prices start moving up and the big holders are refusing to sell into that fomo. What do we get more demand with less supply and that creates a supply shock where the actual price just starts going up like crazy ill? Tell you my theory here for lengthening cycles and what i think might actually be the way this bull run plays out at the end of the episode, so make sure you watch this all the way to the end, so you can get that segment.

The main point i want to draw attention to here is that investors are holding into all time highs, not selling, as was the case towards the end of q1. What we see here is that the amount of hottled or lost bitcoin hits a nine month high, which of course shows that more and more bitcoin is making its way off of the market, so its not accessible to those new fomo buyers that are going to come In when they hear bitcoin once again is making new highs and they want a taste of the sweet, sweet btc train. Now, by contrast, nine months ago in january, the supply becoming available was rapidly increasing. What we saw was that more and more supply was coming onto the market with people selling into those new highs. I think a lot of people thought we would hit 20k and there would be a massive sell off so a lot of that old money. Maybe the money that had been holding on since the 2017 peak, whatever it might be, those old money bags were not holding on the same way in january as we started to explode past all time highs with the massive fomo of michael saylor, elon, musk and new. All time highs on bitcoin, what we saw was hodler wallets, actually taking exit liquidity into the market, and that is very, very, very bad. What were seeing now is that those same hodlers are holding on to their bags and they are not selling, which means that we will most likely see that supply shock happen.

That is a huge, huge and very important factor in helping us reach absolute escape velocity on bitcoin and, by extension soon all of those juicy altcoins where you know this channel loves to focus because they will inevitably give you way more gains than holding on to the Orange coin and for more macro technical analysis, we have here wrecked capital himself, coming in with a bitcoin weekly chart, showing you how we flipped this descending trend line into support. Here were not really. We havent come down and tested it yet, but we can see that we are well above this prior trend line here that had been keeping us down since mid march. But once again, the road to valhalla is long and winding and is never the case that we will be without the risk of a massive dump thats. What my video, the other day was about, because leverage ratios were reaching unstable territory and once again, were seeing a return to greed in the market, where we had extreme fear before i want you to go back and line up the times in the market where there Has been extreme extreme fear, uncertainty and doubt and line those up with price bottoms on the bitcoin chart, or at least local bottoms. It is very, very consistent that when there is extreme fear look like last week, there was extreme fear or there was fear. That is when you see the best price action occur when everybodys super scared, its just the case.

I dont know why its just the way it is right, its just the way it is. The real reason is probably that the bitcoin whales engineer a lot of this fud, so they can take your coins. I know a lot of people dont, maybe believe that, but thats whats going on. If you want to get an article published on forbes cnbc, bbc, the rest of them, you can pay for that. You can slip it in. There is a price tag on everything, and so, if you believe that theres, not enough reward in manipulating a trillion dollar market to get a few news articles published about something that may or may not be true in china, then you are drinking the wrong kool aid. Here, because that is super super likely to happen. In fact, it happens all the time, so just know that when all these flood storms hit it gets my eyebrows raised, and i always tend to get very bullish. A lot of people probably thought i was crazy throughout this bearish period, saying that that was what was making me bullish, but now youll understand having been through these cycles, that when the fud hits all at the same time from every direction and the price dumps, those Are usually the moments where you feel like hmm, maybe theres, some big money trying to take advantage of the little guy and what ive seen over the last four and a half years being full time? Crypto is that that is most certainly the case.

Now, despite all of the negative conversations coming out about potential securities in this market, we actually see the sec approving a quasi bitcoin etf. Essentially, the sec approved an etf that just includes companies that hold or operate with. Bitcoin 25 percent of the fund will be micro strategy stock, which we know is like a proxy to bitcoin anyway, and has been literally pumping and dumping with bitcoin all year. The reality here is that we see at least the signs here that the sec is open to bitcoin, related etfs and etf products that deal with crypto. This is something i told you was gon na happen. Despite the hard talk on one side, bitcoin is in a totally different category as an asset, and i believe that, despite all the fud, the sec and the us government will unleash the crypto bulls here in q4, thats an opinion that was highly contrarian. Just a few weeks ago, and yet i believe, everyones going to be on this train soon. So this is a really interesting way to view the market is to say: hey, there might be a crackdown on d5 and a green flag on bitcoin. It shows the evolution and maturity of the market, how theres many different types of assets here and understanding that the us government will unleash the crypto bulls here, because its a matter of time, unless they want to see capital continually flow to canada and other countries that Have the etfs they will need to approve these products so its going to happen and its already sending a massive massive green flag to the entire industry.

That q4 is going to be glorious again over the next few weeks. We should see a lot more news coming out to this effect and, as willy woo points out its not all sunshine and rainbows. A futurist etf can cause more price suppression in the long term as theres more futures dominance over the price, as well as spot etfs, can cause increased cell pressure from fees. These are things to consider, but again, on the whole over the first few, maybe five to ten years. I believe that its a very strong net positive for creating a ton more inflow of capital into bitcoin. We also have urine finance going multi chain. Now, of course, can you guess which chain they are going to l1 uranus moving to you guessed it phantom but more to come anyway. This is a huge move. Weve been predicting this and foreshadowing this, since we found out that andre cronier was actually the founder of phantom back in the middle of 2020, when andre cronies lore was being written here with yfi, i started covering phantom, that was about three cents and im super super, Proud of the work theyve done and the growth theyve made its looking like thats going to come up on 100x growth here once it hits three bucks which seems like its programmed congrats to the phantom team congrats to all of the multi chain, scaling solutions that are Bringing the possibility of mainstream crypto to life in front of your very eyes, huge shout out to andre and the team over at phantom.

Remember when i told you that any swap was acquired by phantom and that it was some of the best bridge tech around and that bridge protocols were what you wanted to look at. Well guess what yearn phantom any swap a match made in heaven and now were seeing a 7xing of its tvl in three days glorious. I saw a comment on my twitter because i tweeted about my call about magic, internet money, mim and spell and the abrahadabra ecosystem, which i covered about uh three weeks ago. I think it was september. 16Th was the date um and somebody said you know. Did you predict this, or did you cause it because theres always this belief that an influencer cant be right, theyre only right because they have this big influence and while that might be true to a certain degree, the reality is. Is that i work hard not to hard pump stuff, i work hard to control the fomo here on this channel and when i cover low caps, i try to be very very clear that theres huge huge risks here and that you shouldnt just be going crazy. That said, its my passion to cover these new opportunities that are innovative and bringing something new to the ecosystem, and what we saw from the spell chart is not even any real noticeable pump after i covered it, which i love, there was sustainable small growth day over Day week over week, showing the ecosystem growing stronger and then a massive growth where its now hit about a 10x from where we originally covered.

It wed love to see it and thats. Why i lived to do this research getting ahead of trends and, of course i covered this stuff months and months ago. So unless you were really committed and holding long term, you probably wouldnt have gotten the benefits thats, why? It shows you the best investors in the space have a thesis they plan ahead. They look around the corners and they hold on to assets until their vision of what should be the future of this ecosystem plays out. There is nothing that beats a thesis based investment, or else you wouldnt have held on to any swap you wouldnt have held onto phantom. You wouldnt have held on to mim and spell because you wouldnt have seen that initial pump. That initial reward, just like im, predicting the future of gaming tokens to absolutely dominate this market. Most people arent seeing enough gains from that market, yet so theyre getting a little bit stir crazy and going to other quicker movers. But i know the long term vision for this market and what will be the most impactful technologies and im going ultra ultra gigalong on the gaming space and this guy daniel daniel the developer between abracadabra money and popsicle finance. He says abracadabra about money is the cross chain. Central bank of d5 and popsicle finance is the cross chain market maker of d5 spell plus ice. The cross chain infrastructure of defy this guy has created absolute defy magic.

You should be following daniel on twitter and really studying his moves, because his projects are incredibly incredibly impactful. So as this market heats up its important to realize that i start to see my opinion of whats going to happen here in q4, being held as consensus around the industry, its important to realize that long term holders are not selling that theyre riding this wave up. That were seeing bullish flags from the sec from other market participants and, while i think its most likely that we have a q4 blow off top chances are that the market tends to always do the thing that nobody expects it to do. And in this case, the thing that would make it most annoying for everybody would be if it pumped up to maybe 130k dumped down to like 60k made. Everyone think that the whole thing was over and then went and giga pumped up to like 500k and fo mode everyone in across the globe and then had a crushing bear market. Something like that. I dont know but im just saying that. Usually, the thing that everybody thinks is gon na happen is not what happens. The market loves to disappoint the majority held consensus opinions. So remember that when you see everyone super fearful or everyones super greedy thats, usually the camp you dont want to be in with that said, im elio trades. If you got some value out of this smash that, like button remember to follow me on twitter at elio trade, the link is in the description.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKMez-YQWdk