Bitcoin Cycles Are Done! [Crypto News 2021]
Having are we entering into a new era? Well, one famous investor seems to think that is exactly the case. Also in todays news, billionaire bitcoin lover bill miller talks about why bitcoin is less risky now than it was a few years ago and a quick word on the us debt ceiling and the conversation around printing, a 1 trillion dollar platinum coin, my names lark every day. I make videos talking about cryptocurrency investing, so if thats a topic youd like to learn some more about, maybe to stay up to date with make sure you subscribe to the lark davis channel. Also, if you take a quick second to tap on the thumbs up button, just for the youtube algorithm, that would be super super awesome. And, of course, if you want an output, video make sure to click on that notification bell by the way. If you want to earn a safe and simple passive income, you need yourself an account over on celsius. You can earn six point. Two percent on your bitcoin five point: three: five percent on your ethereum and eight point: eight eight percent on your us dollar, stable coins, use the promo code lark or the referral code down below in the description after clicking on that link and youll get a 50 Bitcoin bonus now lets go ahead and dive in to the charts here so bitcoin had a nice day. Yesterday, we rallied up from fifty four thousand five hundred dollars to almost fifty eight thousand dollars nice.
However, however, we have just run into a key area of price resistance. You can see right here. We had that price resistance acting as well as right here. So this is a pretty key area for bitcoin to potentially take a breather. Maybe well see things calm down here. A little bit weve had a pretty incredible run over the past few weeks. To be honest, i mean look at this look at this weird, but now forty thousand dollars back in 29th of september. Now we have rallied all the way up, almost twenty thousand dollars more almost up fifty percent from just two weeks ago, bitcoin has been on quite the rally. If we were to stop here, then wed of course look for a slight pullback to come into play key areas to watch if that were to happen to be fifty two thousand five hundred dollars as well as fifty thousand dollars. So those are the two areas id be looking to buy on any pullbacks that we may get now. If we conquer 58 000 here, then of course, the next big area of resistance for bitcoin we see playing out here – and here is at 60 000. Now, if we crack sixty thousand dollars game on man game on now, weve got ta close daily candle above sixty thousand dollars, with some convincing volume to back it up. Thats the caveat. If we do that, then the new all time high could come very very very quickly because at that point there are very very few people who bought bitcoin in this area.
Oh sure, a few people did and maybe theyre just desperately waiting to sell their bags. The second it gets back to 65 000, but more likely than not thats gon na be clear. Air above us were going to see bitcoin move potentially quite fast once we do break sixty thousand dollars, but dont get too excited until we break 60k. I know the price action over the last two weeks has been freaking amazing. I love it. I really really do but be aware. Pullbacks are normal. Pullbacks are healthy, retesting, previous areas of resistance, flipping those into support its a good, its a normal thing to happen until we break above 60k or, of course, fall below 50k were really just ranging here. I know its been a lot of strong upward movement, but until we decisively crack over 60k, i would expect some ranging to happen within this area so well see bitcoins been very bullish recently we could see that continuing, but i just want you to be aware of Where you might want to place some buy orders in at 52, 500 and 50 000, if we do get those retraces coming in. Of course, if youre looking for a long to make wait until we crack over sixty thousand dollars close a daily candle above it with some convincing volume, now this is a chart. I want to share with you here its from charts btc over on twitter. He said what, if we realigned the x axis, to line up with december 13 december 2017 and december 2021, essentially looking at what has happened in decembers, where we get these massive massive freaking rallies.
So the white line is, of course, our current market cycle that we have been going through. That would indicate that we could still see december being a pretty damn incredible month for the cryptocurrency markets. Remember were not going to go in a straight line to that. It never does go in a straight line, so we pull backs itll, be messy itll be exciting, but we can still see that hundred thousand dollar bitcoin coming by the end of the year. I remain a believer in the cause. I will buy dips on the way to that goal. Here is just another um bit of information for you too, around the bitcoin futures, open interest. Now, this, to my mind, would say that we are getting close to a scenario weve run into resistance of 58k 60k, of course, also key resistance. What happens when the market starts running? What do we see every time? What we see is people getting overly bullish as we start hitting into areas of resistance, the open interest on the futures, exchanges skyrockets. So what are we seeing now? The open interest is skyrocketing once again, so that means people are longing the market like crazy. So what happens when that happens is often these massive spikes of open interest come just before a correction. We can see here massive spike of interest: correction, mass spike of interest correction, massive spike of interest, everybody longing the top longing resistance; correction, everybody along the top correction.
Everybody long in the top correction – now you have to understand, though just one very important thing to take in mind here, is that that could continue to build up before we see a blow off peak right. This is not the highest level of open interest. We have seen weve seen one two, three four higher levels, so this is the fifth highest level of open interest that weve seen counting, of course, just the peaks. We could see this leveling up like we saw here, one level, two levels: three levels before we actually see the the big corrections start to come into the market here, but that growing level of open interest is a warning signal. Basically, its saying that hey people are getting overly bullish, as were coming into resistance, people are getting overly bullish, as were hitting these key areas of resistance. Usually that creates a long squeeze where the longs are punished. The shorters are rewarded because the shorter, of course, the minority in the market right now the whales play the games guys. You know how the whales play. The games theyll wash a lot of longs out here and its not to say that bitcoin doesnt, crack 58 and crack 60 and just smash onto a new all time high before you know it, but that rise in open interest does tend to be a canary in The coal mine kind of situation next lets get into the news billionaire investor bill miller.
Bitcoin is a lot less risky today. Well, not today. He said this few weeks ago. Obviously at forty thousand forty three thousand 000 than it was at 300. Basically, that bitcoin has made it. Bitcoin is an asset thats, no longer super speculative and risky bitcoins a safe asset, bitcoin its an asset that people can feel comfortable, putting hundreds of millions or billions of dollars into which is exactly what weve seen funds doing exactly weve. Seen people like bill miller do build it doing. I wonder how much bitcoin this guy has probably probably a couple hundred million – maybe 100 million. I bet its a lot. I bet its a lot of bitcoin and this guys been bullish on bitcoin by the way, since back before we started entering into price discovery for this uh bull market right hes been hes, been on the bitcoin train for a while bill miller, hes probably got a Pretty damn good stack, he also said: bitcoin is now an established asset. Huge amounts of venture capital money have gone into it. All of the big banks are getting involved, hes, absolutely right, hes, absolutely right. This is what the billionaire investors, the hedge funds, the companies, the private funds. All these guys are looking at. You want to get into a crypto asset, youre, not going down to number 400 on coingecko and saying oh thats. The asset well invest a bunch of money in this stuff is mega mega speculative, you have to understand.
Even bitcoin remains quite volatile, but bitcoin has made it ethereum too. Ethereum has made it in spite of the crazy on chain fees right now. Ethereum is a pretty damn established asset but bitcoin for a lot of these funds and investors, its digital gold, its digital gold, theyre buying it on the same basis that they would buy gold for the same reasons that they would buy gold, except, of course, that it Is valued at one tenth, the price of gold by market cap, so very interesting bill miller, of course, has been a big bitcoin bull for a long time nice to see him still being a big bitcoin bull now lets get into the main story of today. Bitcoins wild volatility to be a thing of our primordial past. This is from dan moorhead, the ceo of pantera capital. He says the four year. Crypto cycles are done. History will no longer repeat itself, thats, a pretty big call, its a pretty big call and weve discussed that idea here on the channel before. But i want to dive into a little bit more because hes brought it up and i think its just an interesting thing to talk about. So he said the first having reduced the supply of new bitcoin by 15 of the total outstanding bitcoin thats, a huge impact on new supply and a huge impact on price. Each subsequent halvings impact on price will likely taper off in importance of the ratio of reduction in the supply of new bitcoins from previous havings to the next decreases.
He suggested as well that as cryptocurrency markets mature and the space sees more institutional adoption volatility will decrease deep bear markets such as minus 83. Corrections are a thing of the past, now thats very, very interesting. This uh theory that the bitcoin four year cycles are over. Now this comes back to our super cycle theory: the idea that the market is just going to keep going. Yes, there will be bear trends within that. Yes, well have bear markets within that, but the bear markets of the future in crypto are going to be nothing like the bear markets of the past, and where can we find an interesting parallel for how that could be playing out? Well, tech stocks? If you go back and look at apple, amazon, microsoft, all the big tech stocks back in the 90s, all of their early days of trading, oh man, that was some fall of fricatility. You guys know: amazon went down by like 95 or 97 percent after the dot com bust incredible and then it rose from the ashes and its next correction brought it down by like 65 or 70 percent, but over time. The corrections for amazon and apple and all these other big tech stocks theyve got a lot less. Now they come down 30, 40 and thats. It thatll mark the bottom of a bear market for these assets. They dont do minus 90 corrections anymore. They dont do minus 80 or minus 70 only in the most extreme circumstances.
We see 50 or 60 corrections in any of these uh tech stocks. I think that crypto is going in the same direction that when we do see our next bear market is going to be nothing like. The previous bear market weve, seen the big money coming in weve, seen the impact of bitcoin havings being reduced by the surge in the quantity and quality of altcoins weve, seen the game just changing with the big money guys and their new strategies theyre bringing in. We have all this defy stuff that really you never have to leave. You dont have to leave anymore. You dont have to cash out, take money into your bank account and wait. You can take your money, put it in d5. Do stuff with it changes the game completely so because of this, we could see our super cycle event starting to take off where, yes, again, there are corrections, theres bear markets, theres bear trends, theres all that kind of stuff happening, but none of its like what we Saw in 2017 sorry 2018, none of its like what we saw in 2014, the days of super mega, brutal corrections could be over and with that, the impact of the four year cycles in the market. Now, currently, i must say by the way its looking like our four year cycle is playing out pretty much to a t, but itll be curious to see what happens afterwards. If we are able to get a you know, a 200 000 bitcoin see the price retraced by 40, 50 percent and the markets not imploding.
Us go into the the barren wastelands of bearville for a couple of years. Well then, thats the super cycle thats a super cycle. I really think thats more of the direction that were heading in even if we get this sort of maybe final, four year cycle. Maybe this is the last four year cycle and itll play out up to the top as if a previous four year cycle, but the bottom will be much different. The bear market will be much different because bitcoin is no longer the only game in town final story. For today, just quickly u.s debt ceiling crisis, a catalyst for cryptos ultimate decoupling, the u.s national debt, its insane theyre, raising the debt ceiling. Again, i mean imagine that if you could just raise your own credit card limit and just keep spending just keep spending, you never have to pay it off. You just keep raising the limit on your credit card forever and you never have to pay back pay back. That money, thats crazy man thats exactly what the us government does well theyre back to one of those situations they run into like once a year where they have to raise the debt ceiling basically give themselves a bit more uh limit on their credit card, usually a Bit of kerfuffle around it, but not such a big deal this time. I guess the republicans are making a big stand against the democrats on it and threatening to shut the government down im sure at the final hour, its all going to get passed.
Everything will be fine if it doesnt everything will still be fine, not a big deal but heres. An interesting thing that has come out of this conversation, the trillion dollar platinum coin. Now, look, i dont think the trillion dollar coin is going to happen, but just the fact that theyre talking about minting a trillion dollar coin makes you realize that the central bankers are all clowns, the global economy, its the clown car and they are all mega addicted To free money, all their corporate buddies, all their banker buddies the central bankers themselves. They got ta keep getting a hit of that sweet, sweet inflation that sweet sweet, free money; the fact that they could contemplate making a trillion dollar coin a trillion dollar coin. Money means nothing fiat currencies, every single one of them is going to zero every single one, its only a question of when some are going there faster than others, the lebanese and the argentinian and the nigerian and the sudanese and other fiat currencies. Oh theyre, going there very very quickly other stronger currencies: the the pound, the euro, the dollar, because of their economic importance. They are on a slower trip to the dust bin of history, but theyre still going there theyre still going there, which is why, of course, you just keep on buying bitcoin guys, because the insanity going on right now in the global financial macro scene, its nuts, its Nuts, the people in charge are all crazy people theyre all crazy, save yourself opt out by bitcoin thats.
The simple message, anyway, your question for today do you agree with dan moorhead of pantera capital that the four year cycles are coming to an end. Its not going to be the same. Moving forward were entering a super cycle. This time is different, or do you think? No, you know what the four year cycle its just going to keep on repeating and repeating and repeating or beating.