I believe it was about a week and a half ago now and uh, and we said that you know the setup. Is there but probably needs a little bit more time, maybe a week or two of which now we are starting to see it come to fruition. But with that said, we do have our first etchings of a major in this case. Actually macro breakout, which is looking like it very likely, will lead towards more long term. Continuation. So, first and foremost, i kind of want to go over what we spoke about, and that was this actually, in reference to yesterdays video as well one of my most favorite things happened. What do we see right here? We see a series of higher low boom boom boom boom and this actually does have a technical name as well. It is an ascending triangle, a bullish, re accumulation formation with a resolution on the daily above 180, as we spoke about on the prior video. With that in mind, the target was around the prior high for the first target. However, i am not saying that things are going to stop there for forever. In fact, because this is very likely leading into some other higher term time frames, we can very likely extend targets for the long term. So i want to be very deliberately clear here. We are going to be talking about the next. You know maybe two to three months to come. In this case we will go over invalidation points as well, obviously, and then maybe a very small amount of the shorter term time frames if time does allow.

So with that in mind, because we do have an ascending triangle right here, you know your technical target is going to be basically where or where i already is. I kind of already hit this one obviously, but do i think that things will stop there? Well, in this case, very unlikely, what youll also notice is – i have several of these vertical bars here. What do they represent? They represent every time where daily volatility has been incredibly low. What ill bring you over to now is this pane over here, and you can see ive marked off some very specific ones. These ones all correlate with upside moves because well were looking at up trends and were looking at upwards momentum and i believe, thats. What were seeing right now, as well volatility, obviously being direction neutral, but we can start to look at. You know trend and momentum to further sort of give us a verification on where this one is likely going to resolve. In this case right here, i should probably re explain volatility its the dispersion of returns, and this particular indicator is the bollinger band width percentile. Essentially, what it is is the bollinger bands, sorry its a measurement of the bollinger band width, which is a volatility based indicator and then weve ranked that into cisco format, uh to give a percentile function on and what what have we seen in the past? Actually something very specific right here, so theres been two times where weve had volatility, this low on the daily specifically being resolved to the upside.

So multiple things on that one and what is it? What what have been the historical results thus far, albeit we only have two of them just for what its worth but relevant nonetheless, well. The first time was in march of 2021 that led into a little bit more of a the gain of about 400 plus percent. Not bad, definitely not bad, then the next big one was, from april or sorry april to july consolidation being resolved right here and from low to high an interesting number very interesting number uh. This was about 733 percent gainer. Now i do want to highlight the fact that almost i wouldnt say immediately, but over the next uh looks like about four weeks. It did put in a move about 250 so that first sort of jump up very similar right there in percentage gains this one. However, i would say this or sorry this particular instance right here is a lot more similar to what we have going on over right here. Remember the discussion that we had about. Essentially, why cough cause and effect pause is what is built up during particularly a consolidation phase, which is what youre doing between this point, and this point as it essentially is resolving itself. After that, beautiful move to the upside somewhat we have over here trading is sideways within a range and the longer that that cause builds up, typically, the bigger effect, and, in this case right here, the last uh.

The last iteration was a lot more similar to what were looking at right now going from may, i would say about late may, so we can maybe even say june, being resolved in basically beginning of august. So what is that two months about a little bit over two months, and what do we have over here this one, starting in early september, going all the way into just about the late october regions right here, a little bit less. So i wouldnt expect the exact same or you cant really expect the exact same results to begin with, but i would expect a little bit of a lesser effect to begin with, but still that first leg up very impressive and while we have had a nice move, Thus far, i do suspect that this one will continue on the macro scale. Here again, i want to reiterate we are talking. You know more further down the road, probably looking at two to three months, as you can see right here, the last one from resolution in late july. To you know current all time, high is uh early september, so that did take a few a couple months right. There to resolve okay before we get into the general sort of targets here, i do want to point out as well that im essentially looking for that volatility expansion to be confirmed on the daily bollinger bands here, as well as long as we are closing above the Top side of this on the daily specifically and, of course, you know other higher term time frames are relevant as well, but this one is the one that is uh moving right now and its currently situated at 194.

im. Looking at this as well, very likely to continue onwards and upwards, that implies that volatility expansion comes with trend, continuation and like more immediately than not as long as that condition is met. This is looking good, so to speak, and what else do we want to talk about after that? Yes, i do need to mention this. The weekly momentum, so another thing that we can kind of look at to give a general guideline of where were at is going to be turning up on the weekly stochastic. Just a momentum off twitter, nothing too special about it. Any more immediate price action usually relevant to that time frame, of course, as well, will be crossing to the upside for the first time since uh early september. If this does close above tomorrow, sunday at ap eastern time, the price of 162. that happens well, im looking for this one to continue uh pretty much now over the next few weeks here, look very, very good okay. So that brings into the question what sort of targets are we looking at here? Well lets pull them up right here. Whenever we get into the topic of all time highs, i like to pull fibonacci extensions for the simple reason that a lot of the time during those times its bought in algos that are going to be, you know essentially doing most of the price action. And did i do it over here? Yes, indeed, i did.

You can see that weve already hit the first very shallow one at the one spot. Four one four: do i think that thing stopped there no probably goes for the one spot, six, one eight before any sort of uh short term um, uh, reconsolidation thats, just above our current area, at about 240 and sorry. If i actually did this properly youd notice its also directly in line with the measured move off of this as an ascending triangle, re accumulation formation would be looking for some consolidation after that and then perhaps further down the road. I would be looking at the more interesting targets, of course, uh the 2 spot 618, namely going to be around 370 and then the big ones are going to be between about 500 and 600. Now, if you recall earlier to the volatility reads and their expression within price action as far as a percentage gain, we can just see if anything fits here. So remember on on that first leg we typically did see about a little bit over 200 percent. Maybe, between about 300 in some cases as well so lets just see where that put uh solana right here. Well, that put it right around the three spot extension actually interesting, one at 4, just below 440. Actually, doesnt need to be exact, of course, but around there would look very, very good, but, as you did notice, this consolidation right here a lot more similar to the prior one.

In that case, i probably do look for it to go more over time, but heres. The thing – and we will follow up on this over time as well, assuming that elio doesnt can me but uh, but assuming that that doesnt happen then well follow up on this one over time, and essentially, i would judge those next targets after this one gets above Or clears the two spot 618 here, thats the big one for me, thats, the one that really opens up the more long term, potentially even parabolic blow up top targets again were talking. You know months down the road realistically and in that case well, you can imagine that if we were to put in one of those more crazier numbers well, actually 400 puts you at 900 bucks, um, wouldnt, really even wouldnt, really even be asking for too much. I suppose very long term now this could be you know, maybe half a year to a year down the road youre. Looking at a thousand dollars now, i did not say that okay, its way too far away, i dont want to get carried away with the old hopium here, but we should now talk about invalidation. Of course, remember any trade setup, any trade idea – and this of course is not finished fights by the way for this thing from in fact, um does not or does have a non zero probability to completely fail and the importance of understanding technical analysis or any sort Of analysis is to know when you are wrong: thats the true value in these sort of things and thats, really the main message that i want to be having here.

So how do we know in this case right here? Well, of course, coming back down and violating the breakout trend line, which was about 180, that sort of accumulation range right there. That would be your first major warning signal. In fact, if alana were to do that close a daily candlestick below below 180, then yes, i would be looking for this one to very likely come back down to the prior range lows at 145 to 150., something new there likely is going on there. I do not think that this whole great setup that we have in front of our face would be the one to be playing at that point, of course everyones free to do what they want. That would be my interpretation of such things. Now, where would be a majorly concerning area to violate long term? Well, thats, actually quite quite simple, your last higher low just around that 140 mark. Actually, if alana were to close the daily below there, not only would i say that the upside is uh, not the most likely thing to happen, in fact, that again would be violated by below about 180, but id be looking for a significant downside after that very Likely again well come back to things if that were to happen and follow up on it, and should we look at a little bit of short term right now as well, i suppose we could. Let me just grab a fresh chart over here and lets put it on maybe a four hour there.

We go a bit of a short term sideways consolidation. After pretty much re testing the proton eye thats completely fine. I remain essentially short term bullish on it. Actually, in this case, we could be a little bit more aggressive, i suppose, as long as above about 190 one and a half – and i look for a resolution of this to the upside hitting the next, i believe – 240 target. It was with a full hour closure, especially above about lets, call it 210 and be a little bit more conservative here. I dont think its necessarily its not wise to be super aggressive. During these times i mean marks being very generous to begin with uh, but looking at full hour moment tomorrow, we do see hidden burdens, good and we do see well volatility cooling off here, so a bit of sideways short term. And then, if you see that 210 level taken out on a four hour, closure id start to look for that next expansion to the upside, probably over the next week – maybe two weeks in this case things look more or less good. Here is the main message that i want to be having and um. With that in mind, i do want to provide one last thing here: yeah were still early in this video uh one last thing, because i ive been updated on bitcoin in a few days here, but theres one big thing. I want to highlight and thats the global leverage ratio.

We are at the same levels that has essentially precipitated every major major move, both bull traps and bear traps actually uh. This is direction neutral. Obviously, but for example, we saw these same levels in early september, we saw the by the way that was a ten thousand dollar dump from about 53 to 40., a little bit more than i guess. We saw it in late july on the bear trap that we identified from about 30 000 bucks all the way to i mean essentially, where were at right now we saw the these same reads in the mid april. Prior all time highs at 65 000 bucks, and we also saw this once again leading towards a massive upside move in november of uh of the past year. Actually, when bitcoin was consulting below its priority high, so i would say that this market is very likely to get very whippy um. If bitcoin came down to 55 000, i would probably be looking for higher lows right. There thats an area of interest for myself. If that fails well come back and maybe do a specific video on bitcoin, as i think that that would be warranted, but just wanted to have a quick, little uh insight into that because uh, while this is direction neutral, you know it could very easily be like A major slam down and then bring it back up, meaning like maybe down to 58 or 55, perhaps even lower than that and then lets say.

Bitcoin closes back somewhere around six thousand bucks that look like a good leverage, washing and probably getting ready for a macro. Continuation with that said, im gon na end this video right there. I hope this one serves.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UbImw6E6RIA