Raoul Pal: BE PREPARED!!! This is what HAPPENING to Bitcoin RIGHT NOW!! – Bitcoin News Today
The on chain activity, the adoption is, is by far the largest of anything in the space, so bitcoin from a market structure has been incredibly bullish. The pattern now you know the chart pattern looks very similar to a smaller version of the one from from march to june 2020 uh, where it exploded weve had this lovely corrective phase, we see all the unchanged stuff. You know william clemente show you know and willie and all those guys showing that its all going into good strong hands. We had the china fudd weve had a bunch of fud. This usually and theres no guarantees, usually october november december, is ridiculously good, particularly at this point in the halving cycle. So structurally looks amazing, so okay, who are the buyers here, so most people who got into crypto came in by bitcoin thats, always the case, its the its the big daddy asset, and then people move out the risk curve and thats pretty normal, so whos. The next big bar of bitcoin, its pretty clear to me who they are it is the ongoing institutions. I mean that just keeps going, and i think well set an acceleration in that, particularly if the price breaks out because everybodys like sheep, they always want to follow each other. Secondly, it is the the coming etf, its definitely gon na. Well, definitely, i dont know that, but i just have a very strong feeling. It comes in the next. You know over this october november december period and that will drive a huge amount of money in the space because it allows raas to allocate and ordinary individuals in a way that they can easily understand.
And finally, i think were starting to see noise from the sovereign wealth funds. So i know some of them and ive talked about this. Before with you is some of them already allocated, but i think were going to start to see more sovereign wealth activity in the space, so i think its interesting. I always follow narratives, and the narrative right now is very much on this inflation ongoing growth, how the fed going to raise rates they have to taper soon, but the work that ive been doing suggests that the likelihood is the economy. The global economy slows down pretty significantly into next year and again we might see more stimulus and more fiscal stimulus coming as well, so i look at it very differently to what most people are seeing, but on the horizon, because of like the fiscal cliff weve got Like three and a half percent of gdp coming off from the fiscal cliff weve got all of the spending brought forward that everybody, including me, did up their houses over the over the previous year. Um weve also got the fact that oil prices have gone up. That hits household expenditure, um prices in general, hit household expenditure. You see these weird old things like the michigan university of michigan surveys about cars, houses and durable goods, because the prices all went up basically theyve gone to all time lows in terms of affordability, so people are stepping back were seeing it in the housing market were Seeing all over the place, so these higher prices are kind of a cure for higher prices, as is often the case, and i think that thats going to lead to much slower growth than we expect and again, as i said, more stimulus, so ethereum um again the Charts look absolutely astonishing.
The on chain activity, the adoption is, is by far the largest of anything in the space um, so its huge whats going on the move towards 2.0 means that you know at a simple level, everybodys going to stake. Everything theyve got to get it there, and so that takes all the coins off the market theres about 11 of all eth in circulation, so its almost unbuyable, so you bring a whale into the market. The price just explodes so ive never really seen a setup as good as this um. In that respect, so um, i think its its its a very high quality bet for the time being because of all of this stuff thats, either off exchange being staked and theres. No free supply and demand keeps going exponential, so um i like keith overall whats interesting, is to start to see institutional adoption. So i spoke at um, cowans, big event and it wasnt about bitcoin. It was solely about ethereum which took me by surprise thats, the first one ive done its kind of been referenced in other ones, but here i am now speaking to investment banks when theyre asking me to come and talk about ethereum and just skipping bitcoin saying. Well, we assume you know bitcoin but heres another opportunity, so i think theres a lot more adoption to come in that space and i think theres going to be etf there too, and again, with this really restricted supply thats going on because of ether 2.
0. I think it drives prices a lot. You know um. I think there are some that are skipping over bitcoin because they get their head around it in a different way, because they think of it as a way of playing the entire technology of the space um. So then they dont, you know its hard for many of these institutions to stomach the narrative, the bitcoin narrative of a store of value that central banks are destroying the world and a lot of this stuff, because that kind of goes against a bit of their business Model but ethereum is not as um. It doesnt feel like its attacking them as much because its like heres a space and were building decentralized finance on it and – and you know everybody can be participate um. It doesnt feel that they have to change their internal narratives. Some are finding it just a bit easier to get their heads around what it is, without kind of going against or kind of exposing the wizard of oz, which is the central banks and what theyre doing to currencies overall. Im trying to get my head around this and im thinking that, yes, i will move down the risk curve back to the safer assets where i think theres less volatility you can use. You know some yield from stable coins or staking or whatever, to lower your volatility. And then you want to be looking to buy the speculative end of the market thats going to get destroyed, whether its parts of the nft space or parts of the kind of general token space that gets destroyed in the next bear market to buy those when theyre Heavily discounted, but they still have network adoption effects or some perceived value or cash flow.
That becomes really interesting, because then you can start allocating in the middle of a bear market into the riskier assets to buy them. Super cheap and thats typical of credit markets, um and equity markets. People always do the same and thats where you get the alpha from, is getting this asset allocation right and very few people. Do it because theyre theyre still a little bit blink into one project and the idea is, you can believe the whole space goes up? You can even have total belief in one project, but its a long time to get there. So is your allocation waited correctly for you to reduce the volatility a bit, so you can sleep at night in the bad times and get a bit of extra out performance in the good times um. My current allocation is probably 70 eth, 5 bitcoin and then a tale of others. So why that allocation theres, nothing against bitcoin, its, not against anything else, its because im, a financial markets guy and we use risk curves. So at certain points in the cycle in the middle of a bull market, you want to take as much risk as possible, so you want to go to the more speculative end of the market. So, firstly, you know i isolated the fact that i thought ethereum was going to see further flows its early in this adoption cycle and that will probably drive prices further than bitcoin and that seems to be playing out with the others theres.
So much going on its difficult to monitor so i i have kind of basically a relatively broad based portfolio to capture some of that move when the tail goes up by the furthest risk out and that happens in credit markets, equity markets all over the place in Equity markets in a in a bull market, you tend to get the big leaders first, which is where the safe money is the blue chips. Then, eventually people move to emerging markets, and then they move to frontier markets and its in order to get more bang. For your buck in the middle of the cycle and generate some alpha, so its not a its, not a comment per se on my relative view on the success of protocols or something like bitcoin its nothing to do with that its about.