Raoul Pal WARNING! Everyone is WRONG about this Cycle – NEW Bitcoin & Ethereum Price Prediction 2022
Saying look, there are no certainties in this world, but this is the highest probability, opportunity ive ever seen and the biggest magnitude of any opportunity ive ever seen in my entire career or ive ever heard about so thats the scale and thats. Why? I am crazy interested in this ethereum to me remains the best bet in the world from a risk adjusted standpoint. It may not do the most in price of all, but for a major asset. My guess is, it gets pretty close to bitcoins market cap, so i think it probably in the end somewhere doubles in relative valuation versus bitcoin. I dont think the market quite expects that, but maybe that kind of short period of the flipping would be the end of the cycle. When you know everybody punches the air, all the you know, the bitcoin guys get pissed off because you know ethereums outperformed and then we we get a larger correction in his latest interview. Macro investor raul paul lays out his entire crypto thesis, including why he thinks everyone has got this cycle wrong. Why he thinks ethereum is by far the surest bet in the space and, finally, what prices he expects to see for bitcoin and ethereum by end of year. For those of you who are looking to maximize returns and dont mind the extra risk raul also speaks on. Why he thinks solana, terra avalanche and cardeno are the highest return highest risk selections in the crypto space make sure to stick around to the end of the video where i will cover the latest on chain, bitcoin and ethereum data to see how it stacks it up.
Against rauls thesis also, only a small percentage of my viewers are actually subscribed if you enjoy finance content, consider subscribing or liking the video its free, and you can always change your mind. I have been following metcalfes law, as my guide for this metcalfes law is about. How do you value a network and its about? Basically, the number of people on the network, plus the number of connections between those people and the more connections and the more applications built on top of those people, the more valuable it is so the biggest network is currently bitcoin and bitcoin has less applications built on It than ethereum does, but it has more users, so its immensely valuable. It has the store of value proposition that most people are familiar with. What is interesting is adoption effects seem to repeat themselves. They say it seems to be a human behavioral thing. So if you look at this next chart, bitcoin now is basically exactly following bitcoin 2013 in price structure, its weird, but this is not a chart. Ive just pulled up today, ive been following this for a year and a half once i first started discovering metcalfes law and im like bloody hell. This is weird, but it gives you a rough idea. I dont expect it to be perfect, but it gives you a rough idea and what im expecting is a gigantic rally into year end and well talk a bit about an extended cycle in a sec.
If you remember, 2013 was a hell of an adoption cycle, it was the initial one and it had some violent moves, its kind of suggesting violent moves. You know just by using that chart. It gets me somewhere like 300 000 bitcoin um, a price range, okay, thats above most peoples expectations, but i dont see any reason why the charts not going to work and well come a bit more about how this cycle plays out in a sec, but the other Killer chart is once i start, discovering metcalfes law. I start realizing that ethereums exactly following bitcoins last cycle and its like. Oh my god, this is spooky. I mean ive got action on my bloomberg in real time and it almost works. Tick for tick, ive, never seen anything like it, and that gives a cycle projection for ethereum of 20, 000 and again, i actually think its kind of overshoot Music, but i thought well, if my logic about metcalfes law is right, then these layer ones that well talk About later should also fit, and bizarrely heres the chart of solana against ethereum in the last cycle, when ethereum was the darling, the new breakthrough its exactly following, and the same is true of terror, its exactly following its like wow. So as these different protocols get adoption, theyre all behaving in the same way, well bitcoin is is repeating its early cycle of massive adoption. So for me this is super. Interesting and again, i dont expect these to be perfect, but theyre contextualizing network adoption, which is, i think, everything in this space for the time being until we start moving into some of the other things.
So how do i think this plays out because thats what everybody cares about, i honestly think were going to have a ridiculous year end but heres the rub is weve got different people actors in the business now. So if you are blackrock or you are tudor and you have bitcoin at end of year, if you are blackrock and lets say, im right bitcoin goes up 4x into the end of the year or 3x. You are going to rebalance and sell some bitcoin. If you are tutor, you come into the end of the year. You want to lock in your gains because you get paid your annual performance fee in january, so you will probably flatten out your p l. So what happens is we might see selling towards the end of december, which the market is going to go? The cycles finished because everybodys kind of expecting a december end because it was 2013 and 2017 where the bitcoin cycle ended in december. However, i think the structure has changed. I think theres, a couple of things going on that will elongate the cycle. One is everybody is on boarding the more the price goes up. The more the institutions on board. Institutions are weird beasts. They tend to operate quarterly, so you come into january. Everybodys got approval, is going to start onboarding and allocating january february march, so that sell off from the rebalancing will be bought by the new institutions entering the space as they increase their allocations.
Additionally, hedge funds have a brand new p l january 1st and what they like to do is put on risk, and this will be the bet that theyll put on. So my guess is we see more of that and that drives prices further than we expect im kind of thinking. That is a probability, a reasonable probability call it a 30 40 percent chance that ethereum gets to 40 000 and bitcoin, whether it gets to 300 or 400. I dont know and theres even enough chance of more. I think weve got a spot etf that comes in the middle of that and probably an ethereum etf. That comes then weve got the other big game in town, which is the fact that ethereum has no supply theres about 10 or 11 of all available ethereum. On exchanges, everything else is locked away in smart contracts: coal storage – you know defy nfts and then staking because everybody wants the 2.0 to come so everybodys staking their ether for the yield, and that takes it off and locks it away until after that, and then that Each comes onto the market gradually, so i think the cycle probably goes until the summer, i think, almost certainly till march, but possibly to the summer, which will give us higher prices and a different cycle structure than weve. Seen before i could be wrong: im, not betting. The entire ranch on it, but thats how i think it plays out and if im right about the network adoption, then these other layer ones like solana, terra avalanche kidana and some of the others are going to be super explosive but in a risk reward basis.
Theyre, riskier theyre, not as deep a network as ethereum is ethereum to me, remains the best bet in the world from a risk, a job adjusted standpoint. It may not do the most in price of all, but for a major asset. My guess is, it gets pretty close to bitcoins market cap, so i think it probably in the end somewhere doubles in relative valuation versus bitcoin. I dont think the market quite expects that, but maybe that kind of short period of the flipping would be the end of the cycle. When you know everybody punches the air, all the you know, the bitcoin guys get pissed off because you know ethereums outperformed and then we we get a larger correction, but anyway thats thats. How i see it and thats a lot of work that ive been writing global macro investor in real vision, pro for macro insiders from speaking to people, understanding the structure from people like um? You know the on chain. Analysis from you know, will clement and willy woo and others. You know looking at the technical analysts that weve had on real vision. You know um crypto, sniper all of these people getting a distillation from plan b stock to flow and so im forming a whole macro view around the space. The next kind of six to nine months in the space. From all of these kind of conversations that are happening on real vision, so theres raul, paul laying out exactly how he thinks the next year is going to play out for crypto and why ethereum is his number one play you guys know.
I cover the biggest figures in the crypto space and, from my perspective, out of everyone, i cover to his credit up until this point, raul has been the most articulate and accurate about what the crypto space is going to do and how its going to act based On his performance in the past and the way on chain analysis backs up his macro predictions, i am inclined to think his outlook is going to be pretty accurate, but well have to wait and see. Let me know what you guys think and if you think there is someone else in the space who has been even more accurate than raul now to cover some of the latest on chain bitcoin and ethereum data, first up out from lex muskowski. We have some more insight into bitcoin whales and what they are doing with btc, as you can see, addresses that hold between 100 to 1 000 bitcoin, which represents between 6.5 to 65 million dollars worth of bitcoin holdings, meaning very high net worth individuals or institutions have Been adding to their positions all throughout september and october, the fact we are moving sideways. Despite all time, high level prices and whale holders are still adding to their stack is incredibly bullish. In my opinion, now moving to some on chain ethereum data out from sentiment, we have some data on ethereums network growth and they point out that we have seen a huge uptick of new active addresses on the ethereum network.
As you can see, the ethereum network added 99 500 000 new addresses, which represents the highest network growth we have seen since the middle of may this year. If you subscribe to rauls way of thinking in that the more users on a network means increased value of the network, then this is extremely positive for the ethereum prize. Anyway, guys hope you enjoyed todays video and that, provided you all some value ill see you all.