How much longer could this cycle potentially go, or maybe its even done already and potentially how much more returns could there be had with that said, welcome back to elio trades channel im host crown again today with some good old ta fix my computer back here, which Im very happy about and got my regular eyes going on here too, and i want to preface this whole conversation by saying, first and foremost, thank you for all the support on this channel. Its been amazing, its been really really cool. To see really do uh really do actually take that to heart and uh and its just awesome man, anyways uh. More importantly, more importantly, uh pertinent to you understand that when were talking about this more long term analysis, this is interesting, but its only relatable. If we come up with something that invalidates it and something that actually validates it as well, so i want to really differentiate this particular video from all the other lengthening cycles and uh and conversations going on across the web, because a lot of them from what i See are opinion based and not fact, based, and i want to do this with with as much data possible and make it as relevant as possible as well, because otherwise whats the damn point i mean i get it like. People want to get views on youtube and everything cool thats great, but we can get views on youtube, but also put out, at least in my opinion, hopefully some useful information.

And, of course, let us know what you think in the comment section below um. If you even feel so inclined, please uh consider liking the video as well and lets get into it right here. Okay, so im going to start off with just this this indicator and what is it its? The bitcoin log curve zones weve actually alluded to it in a prior video, essentially just fitting a log curve onto our current history of this asset, and we are going on the longest running chart possible for bitcoin. That goes all the way to the genesis: okay, beautiful. So what were first going to do is were going to prove uh whether lengthening cycles is happening or not, and diminishing returns as well, and let me explain what the whole hypothesis is and to be fair. I actually agree with the with the former one, certainly um, in the sense that lengthening cycles refers to the concept that over time, we can expect that the market cycles, the these boom and bust cycles from essentially the all time low to the all time high, will Get longer and longer as time transpires and theres a logical and intuitive reason for that more theoretically speaking, wed expect that as the market matures more people enter into the market and with more people entering to the market. That means more theoretical uh orders. In the order book and with more orders within the order book, that means theres more congestion, and it would follow that it takes more equity to move price action, thus making it move slower over time.

Okay, i think that makes complete sense. Thats thats been very consistent with my experience in other immature assets as they mature over time, and i believe that thats, what were seeing right here on bitcoin diminishing returns, refers to the fact or the idea that over time each and every one of these cycles will Produce less and less gains, okay, so im going to throw on my drawing tools right here and what were going to do is is we are going to define a cycle by the lowest closing price and the highest closing price? The lowest closing price must be within the green zone. Of this, the highest closing price must be within the red zone and, as you can see, we have one two three complied completed cycles s4 and were working on number four over here. Okay, so lets measure out this first one. Let me also explain uh, i put these vertical lines to represent, essentially those uh pivots on on on price action. Anyways. This first cycle from beginning to top is 322 days and about 37 750 gained okay, interesting right, but thats not interesting without understanding the next one which well do right here so were going for this cycle. Uh, starting in our lowest closing weekly price was actually here not here, even though it did wick lower its, not a lower close, its technically a higher low fact. Why its very important to understand these things too? Anyways ive already done it, and this next cycle from bottom to top is and sorry this one.

I apologize its actually starting over here im getting ahead of myself, but this low over here to this high over here, and i should actually mark this one off there. We go beautiful. This one is 742 days long and 46 000 gained about. I did around this to be fair and, as you can see, 742 versus 322 is about 2.3 times longer. So, a little bit more than essentially okay lets do the next one, starting with our lowest closing price in january 2015, resulting in the 20 000 high in 2017 december. And how long do you think this one was and 64 days about 9 000 gained and this one was 1.43 x longer than the prior cycle? So already we do see that the cycles are obviously getting longer over time, but the rate at which theyre getting longer is actually diminishing a bit now to be fair. We only have three iterations right here. Three times does make a trend and should theoretically be okay, but i do want to address that point as well as its going to be very important heading into our next point right here. Okay, so now were going to take the low of our current cycle, which is in december 2018 at about 3100 and so far we do not have a high. How do we define a high? Well again, we really want to see it get into the red zone, but this is where ill offer up that invalidation condition if bitcoin does reverse on the weekly, meaning that it comes back down below the last weekly higher low at forty four thousand dollars.

Everything were going to talk about from this point is invalidated, it is irrelevant and it is not what is going to be happening and for what its worth bitcoin would probably uh play out. A really nasty downside move after that, in my opinion, but for now it does hold true so that validates it for the time being and from bottom to top. Thus far, it has been exactly exactly 10 64 days back time of the prior cycle and so far we have around 1 900 gained from bottom to top, so are the returns diminishing? Technically? No, if we go by the data, these first two, it actually increased by a rather substantial margin. The next cycle dropped off tremendously. Personally speaking, i think that youre probably going to see that trend continue over time. I do not think that bitcoins putting in 40 000 moves in a cycle any longer, as that would mean that big got such a high number, that you should be worried about the health of the world rather than the health of this asset, as it goes up To like, i dont know hundreds of millions of dollars, or even tens or even a million dollars. I mean think about what the world would look like at that point. You probably dont want to be the only person who has money in that world because not going to be a very pretty world mountain, you dont want to be the last person surviving in an apocalypse just saying just saying: im ending it before there thats all im Saying and of course, our returns thus far are certainly an outlier compared to all the previous cycles, really not even comparison comparable to the nine thousand percent uh gain right there, okay, so all this is very interesting now lets make a theoretical relationship here.

We know that over time these cycles are getting longer thus far, unless, if this literally is the high right here at which point theyre exact same, but i dont think so at least for right now, again in validation, conditions very important to understand a quick change of Close here, as i had a sauna thought – and i wanted to expand on now exactly where i would estimate given this information, given this data, essentially where the potential end of this cycle very well, may be so heres the assumptions again, we have our first cycle 322 Days, second cycle is 742 days, and the third cycle is 1064 days and of course, our current cycle is 1064 out from the previous macro low. With that said, our second cycle was 2.3 x longer or 130 percent longer than the previous cycle, and the third cycle was 1.43 x longer or just 43 longer than the second cycle. So for this third cycle im going to estimate its going to be somewhere between about 20 to 40 percent longer, the assumption here is that, of course, we continue to see the cycles lengthen and these cycles are lengthening at a reducing pace. As time goes on heres. My assumption right here and as you can see with these vertical bars that would be about where we would be looking at so just to put a nice clickbait title on this wed be looking somewhere in potentially as early as may of this coming year, 2022, and Perhaps as late as september 2022, somewhere around those times, perhaps is where we very well may be looking again, assuming that all these assumptions are true, could it be a little bit more than that? Certainly, could it be a little bit less than that? Well, but i think that this gives us a generalized idea now.

What we can do with this here is, we can take it one step further with now entertaining potential highs or sorry, the high marking price for this cycle. Again, all cycles have marked their top. Their macro cycle top, that is by hitting into the red zone of this bitcoin log curves indicator and with each and every passing week, one more pixel gets added to this indicator and it naturally rises alongside the bottom side as well. Everything gets pushed up a little bit, so what im going to do here is im going to do a very bad, drawing im going to do a very bad, drawing kind of estimate where wed expect this to kind of be around those times. Something like this as i carefully do it beautiful all right now, where did that lead us up towards okay, the ending definitely got biffed up. There lets try that again, maybe sorry, okay, all right its a late day for me by the way, um, usually im wanting my day by this time, but uh. There was too much more information that i had to get on. So okay lets. Try lets give this one more time. Um there we go all right, well, its going to be more of a regression, but uh itll get there and there we go okay, something like that right. All right lets. Take this one step further now, so i i believe ive shown this on this channel before, if not what im going to do now is im going to plot some fib retracements from all the macro cycle, bases and youll very likely notice a clean interpretation of where The next mid cycle lows are, and the highs after that anyways lets start it off with this one right here.

What do we see? Actually, this is not proper right there. It is right there, sorry, for whatever reason that one was not on the mark to right off the bat but thats, okay anyways. More importantly with us, what do we see so im taking a fib extension from the cycle? Uh? Sorry from the macro bottoming area right here, mid cycle low is right at the one spot, two seven two in between there and the four one four, and then we find our highs between the four one, the two spot, four one four and the two spot. Six. One eight fibonacci extension right here: okay, interesting, but not very useful in and of itself, so lets draw another one for this next cycle, right here, of which wheres our next mid cycle, lows in 2013, at the one spot 272 in between there and the 414 actually And then, where do we find our highs between the 2 spot 272 and the 2 spot 414 right there at the edge of the red zone? Okay, cool starting to sound familiar now lets go into the next one for this micro macro cycle base and yet again our mid cycle basin was right here at the one spot 272 between there and the 414. And where do we find our highs between the two spot? Two seven two and the two spot, four one, four okay lets do the same thing for our current cycle and see if that matches up with any of these targets over here.

And what do you know lets actually uh do actually have this exactly right. The smallest change makes like such a big difference. Actually so something like this, i go off a closure, its just like literally one more pixel there. There we go lovely like that. Okay beautiful! I think we got exactly right now: okay and wheres – our mid cycle lows, thus far for all that we know the one spot 272 between there and the 414. If we were to get rid of that and follow this, let me actually move this away there. We go, you can see. Do you want to move this? Oh jesus now, im messing it up, but well, i think thats about right. That is about right, okay, beautiful and where do we see the two spot? Two seven, two in the two spot, four one. Four meeting up with these uh presumed time ranges over here. Well, that would be between about 166 about 167 000 to all the way up to 200 and almost 14 000.. Now, of course, if the cycle goes on longer, this will naturally get higher and higher and if its shorter itll be a little bit less than that somewhere around, like maybe 140 to 150 000.. So i thought that that was rather interesting right there again, please understand where the invalidation is, because if bitcoin does come back down and invalidate or not, invalidate but take out the prior weekly higher low at 44 000 – and this is no longer a main idea of What can and possibly will happen over time as a trader? I dont care about any of this ill.

Put it just right up to you, i dont care about any of this other trader. This is way too far away yeah its interesting yeah. It makes me want to uh, you know drum. The buula beats a little bit more, but you know i really dont have any reason to be trading anything under a daily for my personal purposes. These are obviously preferences. So lets lets talk about something a little bit more relatable here before we sign off this video is already 13 minutes long as uh. Well, i dont want to leave you without anything like actionable right now, uh. I do want to address this hey bitcoin right here, while it is above 60 000, and that is generally good. I do want to go on record as saying as we approach this new week because i dont know when the next time ill do a bitcoin, specific video on this channel. Obviously, on my channel i do them every day uh, but if bitcoin does come back down below 60 000 and close the daily blow, there thats a major warning flag, not a death sentence in and of itself. However, if this coming week, bitcoin does start to move its way back down below about 58 to 58 500. I think that youre going to see a very, very nasty continuation move very likely down somewhere around 50 000 territory, with a bounce likely at about 54 or 55.. A lot of people are kind of talking about this as well, but i think that they are being a little bit too optimistic in the resolution of this.

If it does come to the downside, as i see a lot of people talking about 52 to 53 as being the next low, i dont think that things would do. Would would be that easy. I do think that they would come further down the leverage positions and the leverage ratios are astronomically high, the highest that theyve ever been ever in this asset, and, of course, you know where im going to go with this one as well. The bbwp on the daily is absolutely crushed. Volatility is programmed and if i had to guess it probably expands this next coming week, probably around the end of the week to be fair, and i also want to be on record of saying as long as bitcoin is especially above 60 000. But even as long as as long as its above about 58.5 as well on a daily closure, i am biased towards an upside resolution, especially above 60, 000 bucks below 60. I id go more neutral than anything, i suppose so yeah as long as bitcoin is closing daily, its above 60 000. I am bullishly uh, i suppose um you know biased. As what do we have right here, i mean we do have essentially an ascending triangle being built right now, thats valid as long as youre about as long as youre above 60 000 territory and confirmed above 60 about 63 400 on a 12 hour closure with targets Up towards 70 000 bucks and beyond anyways uh, i think that addresses everything that i wanted to get on this video a little bit longer.

I apologize about that. I thought it was an important one nonetheless and uh. I should also let you know. Of course, i have my own channel at air crown crypto. There is a link in the description below we go over bitcoin uh every day and do some awkward analysis as well in live stream formats. Youre, more than welcome to join in it is a little bit uh a little bit more rated r, i suppose, but uh again, never never bad intentions just having some fun. But i do want to warn you of that, because i know that some people have families around everything. Maybe you dont want your children exposed to that. Maybe you dont want to be exposed to them, who knows um and then also we also. We obviously have our buy bit link as well in the description uh please. I want to be so adamant about this. If you are not an experienced trader, if you have no, if you dont feel confident if you dont have you know prior history of success, do not, i repeat, do not leverage trade, dont, probably dont, even spot trade, either what you should do if you want to Learn trading is you should first reference, you know some sort of catalog of ideas and strategies youtube thats, it free ive, plenty of free resources on my own channel and then back test those strategies and build your own off that with a test net or paper account.

So that you do not risk any finances in the learning process, that is really really important for the people who do have experience well go. Take advantage of the link because its gon na give you like a deposit bonus so its like free money, and i think it also reduces your trading fees as well.