There are three things you need to know: one um, if you like crypto, and you want to be better at it, you want to be better at controlling your emotions. You want to learn how to trade from experts. You want to have more updates and posts from me join the crypto garden, its super cheap. We kept it that way so that it is something that is attainable to anyone. Uh im not gon na sell you anything else, but if you really care about crypto thats the place for people that really care about crypto and other things too, um second, is that i am wearing black nail polish, because i was spike from buffy the vampire Slayer this halloween, so before i get any weird comments: uh im, just digging it man, i feel, like my goth side – is kind of out a little bit. I feel yeah. I feel really comfortable too comfortable and three is that anytime, someone is giving you a list of like top three this or that theyre, always padding padding number three, so we dont need number three lets get to the video hello, everyone ryan here with another uncomplication um. I recognize its been a while, since ive pulled up a chart and blabbed at you um. Thank you for your patience as ive been off on adventures and then last week dealing with some real uh sad life stuff. I appreciated all of the really nice wishes and um kind words that people sent my way uh just kind of sharing that story yeah that thats present for me, but you know i want to do what we do.

I want to um just just offer some thoughts and comments right now, because im im personally at like a crossroads of sorts in crypto, where i am no longer the evangelical shouting from the rooftops hey. This is good for everyone. I was that i was very much that you know back in in this uh helsion day um, but then you know through this whole period. I have just been, i think, really evaluating what this space is, how it moves why it moves, and i am still interested in coming on youtube and sharing videos like this, because it it keeps us together, and it lets me sneak in these other opportunities. Like sharing my trip uh to the amazon, which im gon na do here in a couple weeks with a video that im working on so if i can um, you know fool you into sticking around because im talking about the crypto market, i will do so if It means you will also be open and receiving two thoughts about our emotions. What drives us, what were actually doing here in crypto uh? What were trying to get to in our lives so lets? Do it right lets dive in um? I just ruined it didnt. I anyway uh sorry earmuff your children im, not a cusser, but okay prediction: im gon na make a prediction im going to predict what is going to happen in bitcoin um, not because im qualified to not because i particularly care one way or the other, but im Just going to try and squeeze out of my brain stuffs, everything that i know about crypto to date and im going to just lay it on the altar of consideration for you so um.

I want to first start off by just acknowledging that if we look at the fear and greed index that as exciting as things are, we are in a period of greed and even extreme greed. So yesterday was extreme greed. Today, weve kind of stepped back into greed, and, if were talking about predictions, if were talking about what we know, you know the sort of uh existential truths of crypto is that when things are greedy, the people who know what theyre doing the most are selling thats. The whole reason a market exists because people are making money and youre either making money or you are getting sheared like a sheep over and over and over again. So right now we are in this sort of extreme to greedy period. I always like to look at the the kind of yearly graph and just see how these things line up so well with these other big moments that weve had any time weve had periods of high greed, it always ends in a fairly cataclysmic drop, because that is What is the yin and the yang complementing that white coffee and cycle that prices get boosted up its a markup phase, and then they get driven down and its an accumulation phase, and that driving down is what gets people who just bought at a really high price? To sell at a lower price and there are money making strategies all along that spectrum so long as youre, not the one just responding emotionally to the fear and the greed.

So you know people that were buying yesterday in the extreme greed zone are probably the ones that are also kind of scared right now and stepping back that greed index back to 75 from the 85 or 84 that it was yesterday. So prediction number one is that this is never going to change, that crypto is never going to be a place where prices just skyrocket to the moon, because everyone wants crypto its rare, its scarce its uh, its never going to move like that. It is going to continue to be this whip saw of shaking people in and out and if im making predictions right now were going to see. The same were going to see these moments of high excitement followed by these big drops, followed by bringing people back up, followed by bringing them back down, and so my first prediction is that, if youre on the day to day, if youre, following your coinbase price, you Know minute to minute youre going to be seasick or worse. The next prediction that i can pretty safely make is that you are going to have a harder time seeing the big picture. If you are drinking from the fire hose of content, that is out there in the cryptoverse, so with a few exceptions, most of the stuff that youre gon na find on youtube and twitter and other places is absolute garbage its the kind of junk food that rots. Not just your brain, but your soul, and god, if theres one thing that im excited that ive done this year its to get out of that headspace and to stop.

You know smelling everybodys farts about crypto and you know drinking the kool aid that we all just kind of bled in and just having that um stepped back view and yeah. So if you are listening to the um, the people in the space that are shouting about. Oh, the next 100x, this the next blah blah that that is precisely precisely what has always been driving the extremes of this volatility in the crypto market, and the only reason that someone would buy at 64 is because they thought it was going to 200 and the Only reason why they would sell at 55 is because they thought it was going to 20 right so that whole echo chamber is really built into this. And if you care about yourself, you care about the people around you, uh unsubscribe, from any channel that isnt um or that is just like shouting at you. This nonsense and uh. This probably isnt going to win me a lot of friends but im not really here to make friends um, but that that honestly is one of my biggest gripes and why im kind of reluctant to be one of these people in the first place, you know giving Predictions on youtube, but thats number two is that the voices in this space are not here to help you and then uh prediction number three is again its kind of rooted in this understanding of how the market moves, and why the? Why? Behind why? The market moves? Is not that these things are super valuable and rare, and everyone needs them and youre going to you know, be a millionaire overnight and yada yada the.

Why is because this is a very, very profitable game for people to play and nobody whos making money with this? Wants the price to just go straight up and wants to see a 200 000 bitcoin, its a waste of energy and time and money making possibility? Because these distributions and accumulations are how money is made, boatloads of money, piles and piles and piles of money? And they might tell you that, oh you know us dollars. Thats crap, you dont want that its all bitcoin all day thats, they are making money hand over fists, theyre using it to start companies fly jets around the world, do all kinds of crap and thats. Still, the economy that we live in so dont fool yourself into thinking that the u.s dollar value, taking profits or whatever your you know, local currency is take profits, thats. Why there are distributions thats? Why smart money puts them puts price action in this kind of a phase is to take profit. Profit profit profit its a business if youre not profiting youre youre, losing um youre youre, either at the table or youre on the menu right. So that is – and i love how i just draw this crap on the chart as if it means anything at all, but that is sort of that next thing that im just you know, if im looking at this right now and im making predictions, i can already See these patterns forming again this distribution type pattern and that doesnt mean that its going to go down anytime soon.

This might be the early phases of a distribution, but just like we saw kind of back here. If we just take some chart pattern, uh take these bar patterns and lets just go from. I was looking at this earlier and i thought that this was kind of reminiscent of like from here lets just see what this would look like. Im not saying this is whats happening im just curious. If we were to kind of take this first little drop and kind of stretch and fit to see whatever we want to see you know is there? Is there a pattern thats starting to set up that, might take us to you know 88. You know, im im excited thats cool to see an 88 000 bitcoin, but you just have to remember that um. You know if even this were to happen were still in this distribution phase. The purpose of it is to take holdings that were accumulated over a range like this or even before, and then to sell them at the highest price they can, while that narrative is always future looking is always bullish is always going up until they drive it back Down – and we have another accumulation – so you know be excited, get out there make some money be smart, but dont believe the hype dont believe the the kind of um. What would you call it its like a religion right? The bitcoin religion is that this is going to even willy woo.

Oh, my gosh, i was so pissed. This comment from willy woo that his prediction is that this cycle, the price of bitcoin, will be one bitcoin, because by the time this cycle is done, there will be no usd itll, just all be bitcoin and thats the kind of nonsense, asinine puppeteering, that is getting Poor people, not poor people, but people to you know, do the wrong thing at the wrong time in this kind of predacious cycle just so it can all be scared out of them and turned around and done again, and so i have no doubt ive said this. Since the beginning, i have no doubt that crypto is going to continue to go up into the right. I i mean theres, no reason why it wouldnt, because this game is profitable, the people that are making profits in it love it theres, more exchanges, every day, theres more companies in this space, theres no reason for crypto to stop just you know, crushing it as a Place for investment, but to just detach yourself from the uh. You know bull run narrative or the just wild predictions, the 100x altcoins all that kind of stuff. We saw the mayhem we saw how many people were hurt by this last time and if this happens again, dont say you didnt have at least a few voices in the space, not telling you. It was going to happen, but just saying you know if this happens, dont get caught with your with your pants down this i think now is sort of the cycle and the pattern that we can expect a mature marketplace to move in, and i think that the Volunt volatility is going to get less and less as the price gets higher and higher, and there are more players.

There are more kind of um. I dont know wills behind the scenes that composite man is made up of more and more interest thats. What will eventually smooth out these wrinkles, but right now were still in the wild west and just be careful just be careful, um, yeah, so thats my prediction. I will say that if things continue to go up i would be. I would be pretty surprised to see things go past. You know 80. 000. I think, for you know the types of distributions and accumulations. As far as like the amplitude of those patterns, this is about, i mean this seems really high to me. Even i, i could even see this being potentially a tighter kind of distribution moment. You know same kind of patterns, but who knows who knows whats gon na happen in the world. I just uh. I just wanted to come on here and kind of, as always, uh offer a little bit of antidote to the thought that were going to. You know 200 000. This cycle, not because i dont want it to, but just because when you, when you start to really steep in why the market moves this way, its its money, its profit, its other peoples, profit and when you buy here, thats their profit um. So yeah check the fear and greed index when things get cool thats the time to buy when things are overheated its only a matter of time before the whole thing you know comes crashing down, always has always will we can go and look at the entire lifetime Of crypto and youre gon na see the same.

The same effect every time were in a greedy space. People are buying thats when smart money is selling and when you should be buying, when we all should be buying is when the narrative is absolutely the worst and everyone is being scared away from it. This is going lower its going lower its going lower um yeah. So thats that im gon na stop there because im a minute away from being late, and i have to go to the other side of town. But i hope this was helpful and until next time check out the crypto garden. I cant stress enough that i am not the smartest crypto er at the table when i am at the table at the crypto garden. There are amazing people there that are creating great content. They are actually helping. Uh people navigate their emotions, learn how to trade and not just kind of fomo in and out of things and yeah thats my sales pitch to you. If you like crypto, if you like this kind of stuff, you want to learn more, be better at it. The crypto garden was the uh kind of lifeboat that i created along with the other people in the garden, so that this type of content had a good place to live. You can go check out that youtube channel theres a whole crypto garden, youtube channel with a lot more uh people and voices and thoughts, and so yeah im gon na boogie.