IS THIS THE BEAR MARKET? SHOULD WE WORRY? CRYPTO ANALYSIS & UPDATE
Video were going to jump down into the world of bitcoin, which is leading the way to take a look at what is going on when it comes to the bitcoin price action. And whether or not we are actually dropping down into a bear market or whether or not were actually going to be enjoying some fantastic highs in the coming weeks, as we get into this video, if you do find it useful and informative hit that like button, i Really do appreciate that if you happen to be new to the channel, then why not go ahead and subscribe tap that bell select all notifications, and in doing so you will be kept up to date with everything that we do here at cheeky crypto right with all That said, done and out of the way lets jump on down to the desktop and take a look at what is going on with a bitcoin. Okay, guys so for those who are familiar with the channel, well be very familiar with what weve got in front of us right now. This is a bitcoin paired with the usd this is the weekly chart and we are using bitstamp because it has the serious number of weeks a worth of data. This goes all the way back to 2000 and we just get that right. 11 right august of 2011., so loads of data at our fingertips here that we can actually dive into and actually see, whats going on.
Historically – and obviously you know where the ball runs are where the bear markets start all that kind of good stuff. This has already been dissected quite a few times um across the 2013 2018, and obviously the most current ball run right. So we have these kind of three windows to kind of look into okay, so the first thing were going to do is just take a look at whats going on here in 2013. Right because we had that double peak scenario – peak one, everyone thinking – or at least the majority of people – were calling this a bear market when youre slipping back down only to have this thing run back up again and to a double peak. Okay, this is something thats relatively similar to what we have currently experienced in 2021, as in we had one peak and then obviously we set a new all time high, but very very shallow at the moment, so the expectation is obviously still to kind of have this Run to the upside okay very similar to what was going on with the 2013 ball run. Okay um! This is also can be dissected down a little bit further right. We have basically from when the ball runs started through to that first peak. It was a 315 day run right, a very small ball run, but again early days in bitcoin, it could have been short. Ball runs and longer bear markets all that kind of stuff.
A lot of stuff had to be figured out right, and so we can understand that people were getting a little bit concerned first time around, not really knowing whats going on um 315 days and people were calling it a bear market right. So we have to understand that um. You know that isnt exactly what was going on. You saw the correction come in and then we started to see a nice push to the upside that actually meant that the entire bull run was actually 546 days in its totality. Okay, so um not the short 315 days, but you know an additional few hundred days there at 546., okay, so peak to peak that was a 231 day run now thats. Just out of curiosity, if you kind of put your timelines there, if youre going to peak from one point to the other, what kind of timeline you were looking at, okay and so thats a 231 day peak to peak scenario for 2013. nice interesting kind of thing, We can also acknowledge that we went up in that uh that run and basically 24 and a half thousand percent, okay, so quite significant. Obviously, when its low value – and it goes up to significant value. Obviously the percentage gains are greater. Theyll actually get diminishing returns over time. Okay in terms of percentage yield right, so we can see that we had 24 and a half thousand in 2013 and five and a half thousand when it was in 2018 right because obviously youre starting from a higher base.
You cant push up massively in the same way with that being said, though, obviously we were then, after setting the high of 2013 went into a bear mark and you can see the green and the red are quite highlighted and vibrant um kind of moving averages. If you will, this is the gazian channel. Now the gaussian channel is a good indication of value. Okay, and this is important when it comes to the bear market. As you can see, there are two kind of key red areas right. Those are two bear markets and well get into that in a moment, but, as you can see, when we came out at the peak of 2013, we headed towards our guardian channel in a really strong way. We touched on the guardian channel. We slipped into the guardian channel through the channel and then it turned red thats. The way the value reaches uh tipping point. Basically, when this garden channel turns red youre in a bear market – and that is pretty much where you want to be buying up because thats the key area where youre going to be finding the maximum return. So always look for that now, in theory, when you actually as soon as you drop into the guardian channel youll, be pretty confident in saying youre in a bear market: okay riding the top of it uncertain. You could bounce from it and you can continue that road to the upside right. So we came very close down here, touching the guardian channel.
When we rode back up as we slipped into 2014. We touched the guardian channel, we didnt close inside it. We wrote the top of it and then eventually we did actually close a weekly candle inside the guardian channel, which actually triggered the ball run, or the bear market for 2000 um and 14 15 uh and uh. Basically, then, we started to get the reversal uh in late 2015 into 2016.. Okay, and this is where the ball runs started for 2017 and 2018.. This one was a 714 day run. Okay and again you can see that the gaussian channel goes from red to green. Okay, good visual indication now, obviously riding this up. We didnt actually come down to a double peak like we had in the 2013 model. Instead, we kind of had a nice steady rise with bitcoin peaking out nice, and then it pulled back down. Okay, so peak to peak uh ball, run peak to ball, run peak. It was a total of 1 470 days, important to kind of just understand. You know what kind of timelines are we talking about? Okay, um, so, basically, you know. 2017 was a nice steady rise for bitcoin reaching that peak and then, after that we did pull down. We touched on the guardian channel in the very same way that we did when we had the um 2013 bull run and again in a very similar way. We fell in get the weekly closed candle inside the gaussian channel and were in a bear market.
Okay, we come down. The gaussian channel turns red thats, your point of value where you want to be buying up. This is where things get a little bit off. Um, specifically with the ball, run for 20, 20, 20 21 right, where we are right now – and this is because it should have actually started earlier um, but obviously, with the pandemic we got pulled down now. The guardian channel did not turn red okay. It basically does indicate that we were technically bearish at this point in time, the entire stock market fell down. Crypto fell down some fantastic opportunities. This should not have actually have happened. Okay, in theory, this this was an an outlier event. It was a black swan or whatever you want to call it um, but this should not have happened so as a result. Obviously, you can see great value coming in here, but the gazing channel didnt have enough time to actually turn red and we actually got the reversal when we pushed right back up again. And so, although you know we actually were in a bear market and we pushed out of the guardian channel turning bullish and we did actually pull back down because of the pandemic. So we have to acknowledge that um. This is actually what i call wave 2 on. Some of the other bitcoin charts. Now, obviously we triggered the ball run. We have nice good start to the year. We set the all time high at uh, 60k or whatever it was.
Then we pulled back down and we touched on the gaussian channel. We did not close inside the gaussian channel. Another key point: we actually slipped inside it for the majority of a week, but we didnt close inside on the weekly candles. Okay and then, as you can see, we bounced on it and weve continued to rise right now. Where we are is actually a good indication that we are not actually close to, the gaussian channel were actually still quite higher, and the expectation is not to pull down all too much further from our current position. Even if you pull down to 50k youre not coming anywhere near getting into the gazing channel right so again, we have to acknowledge that theres still a lot of room for bitcoin to pull back before. You would even consider going into a bear market so calling a bad market at this stage is quite um. You know it doesnt make a lot of sense, its, not something that is being backed up technically okay. So as we break this down further uh, obviously we can take a look and think okay. Well, you know we obviously have good expectations of where things are going. We can see um. You know a good impulsive move to the upside on the weekly chart and obviously, inside that impulsive move has per elliott theory in elephant eliot wave. We can obviously find lots of waves right lots of correction waves, lots of abcs.
We can see lots of uh one. Two three four fives right et cetera, et cetera, and it always depends on what timeline youre looking at. But ultimately, if you zoom out to the weekly its very, very clear that youre not going bearish, in fact, youre still very bullish. Okay and we are looking to continue that move to the upside now. Obviously, these yellow lines, just an indication between the peaks of the bull, runs where wed anticipate bitcoin, potentially peaking and for the 2021 run thats based on 1470 days, i.e peak to peak, and that would potentially put us about the 20th of december. Now, theres no guarantee thats going to be the date of the peak of the ball run and for bitcoin that is um. You know it could be much further extended and it all depends on what else goes on in the space, but for right for us right now, knowing that the guardian channel is quite a distance away from our current price of bitcoin here and weve got plenty of Room to keep growing and again this is all backed up on the smaller time frames as well uh. We are looking for that slightly deeper correction on uh bitcoin. I think that might have finally come in a little bit as were heading down to some of those slightly lower levels and then were starting to see that reversal come back through um and anyone who was uh or has seen already the charts uh.
That matt from eva dot io, the ceo of uh of ia, has drawn up. He is very confident on things how theyre playing out and again hes got a whole wealth of experience, so definitely work checking that out now, of course, when were in a uh, a ball run like this, and things start getting. You know heated up its important that we often think about how we would exit the space right and a part of that is going to be making sure that you have your exit strategies lined up not just from price points where youre going to be selling, but Also, how you actually get out of the market. What exchanges are you listed on, which brings me nicely to todays video sponsor, which is crypto.com now crypto.com is the worlds fastest growing crypto app youll probably be very familiar with crypto.com right now, because theyve got so many things going on in the space. Obviously, matt damon being the face of crypto.com the crypto.com arena thats been recently put out there in the press with a record 700 million dollar um naming rights associated with it, obviously with the application. It is another exchange that i do think that its important that you also are registered with you get registered with as many exchanges as possible with crypto.com youre, going to be able to use this on your phone use this to buy and sell cryptocurrency at the true Cost which could be really beneficial during the ball, run when youre looking to exit the market when so many exchanges do happen to go down so with that being said, you can of course get access to some fantastic features with crypto.
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This is the area that we should potentially be concerned with, but i am expecting this to start to get a bit of a reversal. This is actually a rating of d. The sharp ratio is your risk reward ratio i.e. Should you be exposed to an asset? Do the rewards outweigh the risks or do the risks outweigh the rewards and for bitcoin right now? Having exposure to the asset is being indicated here from this ai that we might not want to be exposed to bitcoin right now? Okay, so again, i do expect this to reversal through, as i do expect us to kind of be bottoming out now on this bitcoin correction and once that starts to actually find its true bottom, we should start to see a good impulsive move to the upside, which Could trigger this sharp ratio to rapidly move above that 50 day average? So we do have to be aware: theres lots going on here or with btc, and but those are the main issues that im seeing here. Theyve got good liquidity, so thats not a problem. The profitability is still perfectly fine and its good to see that that sentiment is relatively neutral. It is literally just that uh right now its not going to be a great time to be potentially um diving into the world of bitcoin. Not until that sharp ratio starts to get confirmed that things are starting to correct and back to the upside, so again important to recommend recognize whats going on there with evidence now back onto the charts here.
Obviously, as weve spoken about were not in the guardian channel were not near the guardian channel. I do expect this bull run to continue uh late into december, potentially even early 2022 for bitcoin once bitcoin has peaked, then i do expect those alt coins to also go absolutely insane with fantastic surges to the upside. So you definitely want to be watching out, for that. Just because bitcoin is taking a reversal does not mean that the entire market is also going to reverse when the peak of bitcoin has come in. In fact, what youll find is when bitcoin peaks, the other coins, will actually start going parabolic and theyll move to the upside okay. So the fact that the entire market is correcting together and everything is correlated is actually an indication that bull run hasnt peaked just yet, because those old coins would actually be surging to the upside too. Now, when we actually jump into the world of our um btc to usdt uh on this weekly chart, we can of course acknowledge what is going on with our charts here as well right. So we have this good. Five impulsive moves to the upside, so this is really now just focusing in on this particular bull run rather than of cross. The various ball runs right, and so here we can see. We have this good surge to the upside. What were experiencing right now is not abnormal, and it is still very much in line with our expectations of this fifth wave.
The fifth wave will be made up of five impulsive moves in itself. Okay and again, we can acknowledge what has been going on previously right. So basically, if i grab hold of this, we can see that our third wave here we had one two, three four and five, and then that was followed up with an abc. We had our a we had a b and we had a c and then now we are following this up with our impulsive one, two, three four and five. Okay. So again, we are very much in line with what is going on um, but its important that we dont get too focused in on those smaller time frames. The bigger picture tells you absolutely everything that you need to know and you will just get lost and drowned inside those hours. Those uh the hour chart the 15 minute chart the five minute chart: etcetera, theres, a lot of noise in there that you kind of clouds, peoples, judgments. It makes you panic and really leave that kind of stuff to the day traders the people who are literally scraping profits, um every kind of five 10 15 minutes or so, if youre, looking at the longer term picture and youre, not using leverage because thats just awful In itself and youre, basically looking for finding the trends that you want to be backing, then you want to be focusing in, on those larger time frames right. The four hourly, the eight hourly, the daily theyre good for kind of short term uh month kind of views and again, if youre looking for true ball, run perspectives.
Uh huddling our way through dollar cost averaging better positions, and you want to be looking at the weekly and the monthly charts. Those are the ones that give you the better picture of the overall of what is actually going on, so guys im going to leave this video there. Hopefully, you have found this useful and informative if you have hit that like button.