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We will also be going over in this video, something a little bit more fun as to when that might actually happen with. That said, welcome back to elio trade channel im your host crown again today with some good old ta, and this video is going to be a skill video similar to last week. Actually, where we spoke about how to define major market highs, of which, about a day or two later, we got exactly that, and this is going to be the opposite. But equal video for defining major lows and well also go over when to when. Potentially, it would make sense to actually expect this like for for a timing narrative, i should also let you know that i have my own channel. There is a link in the description below and one of the reasons why i want to record this video as a skill. Video is because i do not know when ill do the next video a bitcoin video on this channel. So i want to give you the tools so that in case you are not subscribed to my channel and youre, not watching. You know if youre not getting that daily, bitcoin analysis. You can just see it right here and have it for yourself. Okay, great so lets start off with the fun thing first, when lo not not how, but when, as i think that theres something relatively fun to be looking at over here, we spoke a bit about this very briefly yesterday and today i want to give it a Little bit more focus because i actually wanted that to be the focus of yesterdays video, but i guess the the title and everything and uh it kind of got.
I guess a little bit a little bit different there. All good, though, of course, and more importantly, what am i talking about? Well, there just seems to be some sort of weird thing about the third friday. The the end of the third week of the month for bitcoin. Specifically, all of these vertical lines represent around the 20th of the month. Now the 20th of the month or around the 20th a month means you know, plus or minus a day or two from that date. However, looking at this right here, you will very quickly see that all these vertical bars align mostly with major lows and some of them well, not some of them, but one of them aligns with a major high that one being actually last october 21st right here. Actually, that was the high, so to speak before a nice big meltdown move from 66 down to 60 or sorry 56., a 10 000 move right there. That was the only one thats actually been a top in the past um year. Actually, now that we uh yeah now that we go back down here, anyways the one before that in september was on the 21st right here now, as you can see, bitcoin did chop around that low, but that was our last major and even macro low, very important Before rallying up about almost 30 000 bucks, not bad, you might say what do we have over here in august on the 20th, a nice spike low right there, it doesnt look like much on log scale, but rest assured this was a almost 10 000 move from 44, fifty three thousand uh just a few weeks later, what about the time before that in july, of course? Well, that was our mega massive bear trap on the 20th and 21st before going up well from 29, all the way to 53, not bad.
You might say, okay, what about the time before that over here? That would be the 22nd of june. So again, a little bit of around that 20th of the uh date of the month, but again a 10 000 rally from low to high. As we do see it go from 29 all the way to almost 37 right there. That is close to 10 000. I should say still a rather impressive rally on a 30 000 number anyways the time before that was the last major massive meltdown on the 19th and 20th of may. Bitcoin did rally up almost immediately from 30, 000 to 41, 40, actually, 42 and a half thousand. So about twelve and a half thousand dollar rally right there, not bad, of course right here. This is april lows. This is your march lows. This is not necessarily your february lows because uh this happened on the 27th, i believe i mean we did get a spike down on the 22nd right here, but id say thats a little bit too far out of reach and then of course, one before that was January over here, uh january 22nd, on that spike, low and december uh 20th right here on this spike low and then of course, november well, a little bit out of an outlier there as well anyways. Of course, we we are currently coming into the 20th of this month, just two days away and as weve seen in the past, you know somewhere between the 19th and the 22nd is where this typically does occur.
Now, do i have an explanation for this? So again i come from traditional land. I used to be a market maker authorized trader on the floor of arca, and one of the one of the explanations that i could maybe postulate here is that the third friday of every month is whats called the regular expiration for equity options and the reason why Thats important is because its typically the the highest volume in the most traded expiration for that month and theres a lot of big portfolio rebalancing going around to that date. Specifically, so people are rolling their positions to the next month or the next expiration thats relevant to them or theyre. You know just reorganizing their portfolio, whatever it might be, theres a lot of action postulated or sorry uh pivoted around those expirations. That would be my explanation, for it now does that follow for bitcoin kind of kind of not theres, not a huge options market in bitcoin, but the people who do play the options market certainly have the power to move the market in bitcoin it from what i Understand from what i know, anyways well get off that topic for right now that was just a fun little thing to begin with, so lets get on to the bulk of this video. Now again, this is more like when lets talk about now. How what are we? Looking for on a major low, okay, so first things first remember last week when we spoke about bearish divergence on the daily rsi.
Well, we got that just about a day or two after the video, and that was your high right here, confirmed on the ninth and tenth and then down we go. So what are we looking for on? The other side were looking for the opposite, but equal indication of that which is called bullish divergence. Now this can come in two forms: theres, both hidden bullish, divergence or what should be known as continuation divergence and regular bullish divergence. Regular bull divertance only comes within the context of a downtrend hidden bullish evidence only comes within the context of an uptrend and they both come on local lows. Dont. Let that confuse you dont, let that scare you, you dont, need to know exactly what im saying right there. What you need to know is how to identify it, or at least one facet of them, and it all comes down to what were looking at here on. The rsi remember were looking for a divergence between price action and the momentum oscillator, and i want to give you the underlying understanding of this. Not just telling you like look for this, because you know you sh, you should its going to be better to know that, basically, is what im trying to say, and so what are you essentially looking for? Well, in this case, we use – we are in a downtree. Downtr were not still in a downturn were not a selling uptrend. We have lower lows, but we do not have lower highs just yet so it could be an emerging downtrend uh, but its called, but its.
You know its kind of in limbo right now, anyways what does that essentially mean for what were looking at right here? Well, most importantly, we are looking for a loss of momentum to the downside, so that would imply that bitcoin comes down, makes another low or two, and then we do see if were going to see, bullish divergence, a higher low on the rsi. Now, the higher term timeframe that we see this on the better and the more likely it is to be a major low now that doesnt necessarily have to be on the daily right here, youll notice. We do not have bullish evidence over here, although we did have it on the 12 hour, for example, youll notice. If i go down to the 12 hour in on our last major low, that was in september by the way on the 21st as well. What did we see? We do see an ever so slight amount of bullish, divergence right there as bitcoin did make an ever so slightly lower low and the rsi also made a higher low. So again, price action closed lower and it only mounted on closest by the way so price action closes lower and the rsi oscillator is making a higher low ever so slightly right there. But that is completely fine, and that is what were looking for, because it suggests that theres a loss momentum to the downside, and thus we are looking for a bit of a role reversal right there.
In this case, then we go off of trend. We pick out the last local high, which is right here and as soon as it takes that out. Well, youre, not always gon na have a result like this, but that is you know, youre, essentially looking for some upside after that, okay beautiful. Should we pick out one more example? Yes, we can certainly do this. Lets go to the last major massive macro low that we had, which was back in the summer, and what do you know throughout this whole grind down, and this took you know months – remember from may to july, but this whole grind down from in the 30 000 Territory whilst bitcoin was closing on lower lows, we were making higher lows on the rsi the whole way through, especially this one to this one, and that was this low over here and this low over here, massively closing lower lows, but massively higher lows on the on The on the daily rsi, as of right now, we are in no way should perform making bullish divergence on the daily rsi. But, like i said you dont need to see it on the daily uh, even seeing it on the 12 hour or the six hour would be enough for me and right now it is starting to show itself a little bit, but we still have some work to Do so well, i do think that bitcoin is very likely to bounce off this region similar to yesterday, which, by the way, the six hour very well, could put it in right here.
If you do confirm a local low, as you are gon na see a higher low on the six hour rsi, i do think that bitcoin very likely bounces from here now. With that in mind, i would not call this a a major low and say that bitcoins out of the woods similar to yesterdays video intel bitcoin is back above 65 000 on a daily closing basis or a 12 hour closing base. If it can do that, yep its all good in the hood once again – and i am going to be talking about all sorts of fun upside targets – i dont know about this uh. I dont know about the plan b targets by the end of the month, but you know – and i have a lot of respect for him but uh well, maybe in like the next few months, not necessarily in the next couple weeks. I think thats a little bit a little bit aggressive for myself and i tend to err on the side of conservativeness when it comes to trading anyways. So that is the first way and one of the most powerful ways lets go over a couple more a couple. More interesting ways as well: okay, another classic way of where to look for on your higher lows – and you might not like this one as much. But a very, very good way in this case is to go to your higher term time frames. We can go to a daily or weekly.
Apologies for the doggies outside were dog sitting in a couple of pomeranians and uh. Theyre theyre quite excited right now, anyways. What do we see over here? Well, we can pick out the last major highs on this trend and we expect those to be respected and for those if tested to put in another higher low – and in this case, where do we see the last one at that – would be 50 about 52 000 Bucks and this what im gon na make as a blue box right here, also youll notice, its directly in line with the weekly yellow 21 exponential average. Why is that important? Well, just so it just so happens to be that bitcoin seems to love that throughout its history and ill. Actually, just briefly show you this right here, just one of those weird things that tends to work, but in bitcoins bull markets. It tends to well not just uh, come down to it, but give some amazing entries on it and in bitcoins bear markets. It tends to give some amazing entries for shorts on it as well. Now, the way to kind of look at this uh, if you already uh youre, probably already figuring out this out, is that if price action is above the yellow 21 on the weekly – and it has a positive slope, so both of those things are very important on An open and closing basis, generally bullish, generally macro bullish trend.
You see it get all the way up here. Breaks right here, boom down regains it right here keeps you long. All the way to you know top of 2013 same thing over here regains. It all the way to 20 thousand same thing over here, four thousand to fourteen, more recently from eight thousand to sixty five, and then we regrained it recently at the low forty thousand dollar territory. So bitcoin did come back down around there. Not only would it be a test of your prior major high, but also the yellow 21 right there, and we just know historically that bitcoin tends to like that one. So bitcoin did come down around there. I would quite like it as well again. I am not saying that bitcoin is is destined to come down to 53 000.. I am actually only looking for bitcoin to come down to 53 000. If, and only if, bitcoin does close on new lows out of this consolidation range, meaning a uh, we need to see like a 12 hour or daily closure below about 58 500. If we see something like that or 58 000, if you want to be super conservative, then yes, i do start to look towards 53 or 52 000 bucks with very likely a bounce along the way at uh, 55 or so, okay beautiful, so that ones rather simple. Rather easy and lets get into another one that should naturally have confluence with that, or what i should say is that if it does have confluence its very likely thats going to be a strong bottoming area as well and its going to be this its going to Be the good old fibonaccis here, so what im going to do is im going to draw a bullish retracement for the fibonaccis, and i just want to see where major things come in at and that can you know give us an idea of where were at in The grand scheme of things, so how do we do this? Okay, we go in the direction of the trend, so that means in an uptrend we start low.
So we start from the last major low, which is going to be here at 40 000 and we end high and we go from bottom to top, and now i only have three of my levels here uh, i think theyre i happen to think theyre. The three most important ones to be honest with you, but fair enough, um anyways. What do we see right here or did i did i get this right? Yes, uh, okay, yeah lets actually get this exactly right there and exactly to the high right there. Okay, beautiful all right, so the rule with these is the general rule i should say is that your 3a2 fibonacci retracement is where you expect to retrace in a very strong uptrend that is still okay and guess what thats pretty much. Where were at right now? Yes, its a little bit lower, you can see that we more officially tested it on the 29th of or sorry the 28th of october lows, but again coming into this region would be considered kind of another test of it. Essentially and again, i do think that bitcoin probably more likely to bounce off this area, first, probably into the mid to low 60 000 territory and then hey if it does retake 65 theres, no more talks, or at least in my opinion, theres. No more talks of relevant downside right now, anyways uh. If this area is to fail wheres, the next big one, then not 0.
5, which is right around three thousand dollars, which is interesting now isnt it, because that is exactly where our last major high was and then below there. We have the six one eight. So the six one, eight, if you do retrace around there, its its an extremely strong bounce area. However, i do start to get a little bit more concerned that the trend is actually in a macro reversal. If we get down around there in comparison to the 382, which is where you do expect, our new, very strong uptrend, so uh below the 618, usually going to see a macro reversal right there in this case, or you know, were going to see like a you Know big downs after that to be fair, anyways lets get into the last one. I realize that this video is already quite long, but i do think that its rather important – and it is something thats actually relatively simple and its this well its all these white lines. No, what do they all have in common? They all are going off of this indicator right here, called the pmarp ill. Show you my settings very quickly if you type in on the training view indicators, tab, pmarp, itll, pop up its by caretaker its a good friend of mine, and these are the settings that im running right here and by the way, just make sure that its on Price moving average ratio percentile. Basically, this is telling you uh in a percentile format how how far away current price action is away.
Uh is away from those user specified, uh moving averages of which im running a volume weighted moving average right there anyways. I marked off these horizontal or sorry horizontal again, american, my education, not great, but vertical bars alongside the alongside all tests into these two green horizontal bars right here, which are very low, and all of these have been, as you can see, some pretty amazing and lovely Lows for bitcoin uh going back, i mean going all the way back to 2020 right here and we could obviously do more. We could obviously do you know this last one from uh the flu dump. If you will anyways, i wont, say the real word there, because uh youtube doesnt like that one, but all good anyways uh, you know you can you can eyeball this yourself, but all these were major major lows and whats. Interesting right now about price action. Is that we are just getting into the top portion of it? Now, of course, have you know? Do we typically see it on the extremely major lows come a little bit lower than that? Yes, we do, but once we get into this green territory right here, it is time to be looking for a major low most likely, but you know at least the the probabilities are on that side. So the longer that bitcoin does chop around this 59 to 60 000 territory, the more and more. This will actually inevitably come into the bottom end of that, and this will start to look like bitcoin is very likely bottoming within this region and not going to trade lower if bitcoin dumps out basically between you know now and sunday, then probably going to see like 55, 000 bucks and try for a major low right there.
I am actually still of the opinion that bitcoin has a chance right here and again. What would make me uh, like not just from my personal opinion, but as a trader and technical analyst? Where do i essentially just say hey, this is not just a major low. This is the low that youre looking for again its back above 65 000 bucks – that is a critical area, just this last little high right here, technically a little bit above there, but that would be where we can start to talk about. You know plan. I refer to them as plan b targets once again, not necessarily in the same time frames, or at least i wouldnt feel comfortable saying that uh, but i hope that this video is both relevant and hopefully digestible for you. I realize its getting a little bit too long now, but i thought that it was an important one as uh its important to have these tools, so you can decide for yourself and i believe with that said it is time for me to sign off ill see.