There will be this hyperbolic scenario, but the powers that be with the largest armies, the biggest balance sheet and all the political power they will fight. They will fight till the death thats. The big battle were seeing at the moment. The big battle is between math and thermodynamic certainty, bitcoin. If you will the best money ever theoretically and mathematically and the powers that be right, that want to protect what they have because theyre going to lose it all right or a lot of it, yeah its a political power game with the most powerful countries and armies In the world and central banks against a mathematical physical thermodynamical, optimal solution, so yeah, i dont know who wins. But it sounds like the church. At the time saying, the earth was flat and some some weird mathematicians saying that the earth is round and in the end of course, the optimal solution wins the truth wins, but can be a lot of war and nasty time fully agree. Real estate is not fungible and its not portable, either either yeah in all those dimensions. Bitcoin is the better money. On the other hand, the only thing what we defer, i guess, is the timing of the events. So, yes, the dollar will die. I mean every reserve currency dies right, its a certainty, so there will be something new something better, but when is that happening its the same question as the super cycle? Are we entering the super cycle now or later? I think where the super cycle will be there.

Its inevitable, but not now, i think there is it will happen after next. Halving if you will, after the stock to flow of bitcoins, will be higher than gold and higher than real estate, because until that point of a structure flow of 100 real estate will, for whatever reason, be the preferred asset, as were seeing right now. Im. Seeing around me, people put more money in real estate, like hundreds of millions. Blackrock, for example, is by the entire city of amsterdam, because those companies and the money right now is with old people, the real estate and the gold, the physical world and not the digital world. The digital scarcity is a next generation thing, so i think it will happen, but i also see in my own model that there is a linear relationship between scarcity and value, and i agree that is one of the dimensions of money. Fringibility is the other one. Portability is another one, divisibility is another one thats also very problematic, with houses divisibility, but scarcity is the, in my view, the most important factor causing that linear relationship and causing people to put more money in real estate. Now that will change once next to the visibility fungibility portability also, the scarcity of bitcoin will be better than real estate, so my guess would be were probably going into that question right now, but so are we going into this? This fomo hyperbolic uh scenario right now or next year, the year after or are we going to drop 80 first, have a big war with the powers that be the central banks, the u.

s dollar, etc, etc, and go into that that hyperbolic scenario or or a u.s Dollar scenario, if you will, where bitcoin is the best store value after the next halfway so say: 2024 28. That would be the period or maybe a little bit after that lets see somewhere between 2024 and 2032.. I think we both agree. There will be this hyperbolic scenario: bitcoin will be by far the best asset – physically dynamically mathematically, above all other, but the powers that be with the largest armies, the biggest balance sheets and all the political power they will fight. They will fight till the death. Adam beck had a very nice tweet about that, not to tweet from about that stock to fomo model, but the the one earlier about where he compared it with asimov trilogy the foundation trilogy written by asimov, fantastic story. Fantastic must read books and, yes, you could say the stock to flow will be killed by when the dollar falls. You could also say that the stock to flow model is actually predicting the fall of the u.s dollar and, and it gives a time frame as well for that, because the stock to flow model uses the bitcoin price to nominate it in dollars. So as we all do right, i mean between prices and dollars, but its also making an assumption that you wont have a contagion of fear on the dollar or whatever fiat currency right. I think thats a little different.

I think its not making that assumption explicitly. Of course, maybe implicitly, but i think its like this and thats, why i like the stock to flow x model more than the stock to flow model. If we look at the stores of value that, in this weird macroeconomic environment were living in right now, with negative interest rates and quantitative easing going through the roof, if we look at the stores of value that are available, then real estate is the biggest one. Its about 100 trillion u.s dollars globally, its stock to flow is about 100 and its the number one store value that that people around me at least use as a store to put their value in. They just buy extra houses and rent them, or every b them or whatever so thats number one. The second store value, of course, is gold, with the stock to flow of 60 and a value of 10 trillion u.s dollars, theres, of course, equities and bonds. All in the 100 trillion range, but if we look at stock to flow x, model for bitcoin bitcoin is 55 now stock to flow ratio and the values of around 1 trillion so its much smaller than real estate, its much smaller than gold still. But the good thing about that stock to flow x model is that we do not have to extrapolate like all the other models extrapolate into the future that we do not know. The stock of x model is stock to flow ratio on the x axis and value on the y axis.

There is no time element its not a time series, its just gold, real estate, bitcoin silver and diamonds, and we can interpolate that model. We know what a stock to flow 100 asset is is valued at its the real estate market. We know what a 60 stock to flow ratio value asset is value at it. Thats 10 trillion thats gold. So i think that hyper bitcoinization scenario that we were talking about breaking the model is, after that stock to 400 ratio. So in my in my point of view, the dollar will die. The empire will crumble after stock to flow 100 for a bitcoin thats sort of where it all goes wrong and where well, the model fails, but maybe the denominator of all valuable things fails. We have to replace the dollar by, i dont know gold, bitcoin, maybe or something else, maybe theres a new world reserve currency.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqWC7yhFymc