BITCOIN BULL MARKET PROJECTION | Crypto Dip Almost Over
Im, michael and in this video were going to look at a prediction that i made on the 20th of october, how it has played out pretty much exactly to plan, but now things have changed so im going to share with you. What looks like is coming up. Next for bitcoin, but first i will remind you that everything i say is general information. Only everybody must do their own research and trade and invest at their own risk. So on this day, the 20th of october marked on the chart, i put a video out called bitcoin double dip 50 50 chance of a massive correction. Now, im not going to go through everything that i said in that video, because after this video is over, you can go back and watch that if you like, but essentially at the end of that video i mentioned how there is probably much more higher chance than 50, 50 of seeing what weve seen now with a break to a new high and then a dip below another break to a new high and then a correction. But to show you what i mean quickly going back to 2014. We had this instance of a significant all time high. Then we had a break and a dip, then another break and another dip, and if we go forward to the next cycle we also had a significant all time high. We had an almost re test, then a break and then a dip, and i was saying that i thought were going to see something similar, probably a merge of the two previous cycles and if we look at whats happened now, thats more or less what weve seen Weve had a break and a dip and then weve had another break and a dip ill get my pen working for you break dip, break dip, so its played out.
Basically what i thought would happen and what i shared on this channel. But now the patterns are starting to look a little bit different and to show you what i mean by that. Well go back to the charts because the data doesnt lie. So while there were a fair amount of similarities going into the top or coming into breaking back into fresh highs just last month, things do start to change, so weve always got to be looking out for similarities and differences and to show you what i mean the Difference that im pointing out now is, after breaking to fresh all time highs. Yes, theres been another couple of dips but notice what the dips have done. Each time weve had the break then weve had another break and after the dips the dips have actually been putting in higher lows so thats what took place in 2017.. If we go forward to 2018 ill just zoom in so we can get really clear with what were looking at. We actually had just almost a break, but it didnt quite break. It fell just a little bit short, but after falling a bit short, we can see that the market did break out, but after it broke out and dipped again, it also put in another higher bottom as opposed to basically what were seeing now. Weve had a couple of dips, but now were actually putting in lower bottoms. So you can see we had that previous all time, high in april weve had the new break and then the new break.
We had the dip and now weve got this other dip, but, as you can see now, its looking different weve got lower lows as opposed to higher lows, which is what we saw in both of the previous situations. So, although we had lots of similarities going into the top – and we had a reasonably high conviction – or at least i had a reasonably high conviction that were going to be getting another double dip scenario, whats changed now is where the lows are actually falling. Now, if anything, we could quickly jump to conclusions and think that hey this time around after breaking to some fresh highs, looks a little bit like last time. In april, we had a few breaks to fresh. All time highs had some higher bottoms, but then all of a sudden new break and then the lows start breaking so one could build the case that, after this break, we are seeing something similar to what we saw in april, which obviously resulted in that fairly savage. Sell off closing in almost 60 losses from the top now. This is where the crystal ball starts: to get a little bit murky, theres a bit of cloud coming over in terms of seeing clearly or having a fairly close idea of what could be coming up next in terms of the patterns that were looking at and remember. Just like were doing before were looking at similarities and differences, and if were going to be trying to compare this current fall to what we saw in april, its only fair to do the same to look at similarities and differences.
And while yes, there are similarities with the market, breaking down breaking lows, but also breaking those highs, like we saw last time, lets point out a few key, significant differences that could be telling us that hey. Perhaps this time were not going to be seeing something like we saw in april and may, and one of the first things i hope has jumped out at you is how savage the sell off was from the april top. We had 11 consecutive days down. There was no higher high on any day from that drop and it was just a very savage drop. We can see the volatility that did kind of hit in the middle and then still remain for the end of the run. If we look at whats happened this time, we did have a bit of a savage drop where you know a bit of volatility, but in comparison, its nothing and its also starting from a relatively higher price at 69k, as opposed to 65k. The other difference to note, which i touched on just before, is that the market did just go straight down without putting in a new daily high this time around. It is different. We have had the sell off, but weve been getting new daily highs in between. So the sell off by far has not been as savage as last time around. So although there are some similarities with the tops and bottoms pattern, theres definitely a lot of differences too, with how the market has sold off and what the sentiment has been like.
On the sell off, if you can cast your mind back to seven short months ago, if you were around, then the sentiment throughout this dip was still incredibly bullish. Everybody was buying the dip every single day, whereas now the sentiment has shifted a little bit with a little bit more fear around. Yes, people are still very bullish, but at least the way im interpreting sentiment, i dont think were as bullish as we were back here and thats kind of a good thing for higher prices, because most people we know most of the people are fooled. Most of the time, so while there are a lot of people sitting on their hands, thinking that this is the start of something major major bear market or something like that, its going to leave them on the back foot. If the market does turn around and hey, of course, i could be wrong and this could be the start of a big bear market and if you want to know when i think that could happen watch my video from yesterday, where i map out my lines in The sand its going to be telling me that perhaps ive got this wrong, but at least from where i see it now were sitting at a pretty decent looking support level. I do think we may go a little bit lower because theres, no confirmation that this is going to be a low just yet, but ill get back to more on that very soon.
So now that weve mapped out some similarities and some differences ill just go over it one more time we had the higher tops, and then we had the breaks of some lows thats. What were seeing this time the higher tops and the breaks of some lows, the big difference is how savage the sell off was and how kind of orderly this sell off has been now ill, happily stand corrected. But if someone wants to drop me a comment with a more orderly sell off that bitcoin has seen please let me know, but as far as i can see, it is just quite a orderly, looking sell off. Like i keep saying and to me, that is more more so a bullish case than a bearish case, because its more balanced, its more kind of measured as opposed to something savage and highly volatile. So taking that into consideration, this kind of you know balanced or not so savage sell off. What kind of recovery do i think could be taking place? Well, when the market is a little bit more balanced down? Often we do see a little bit more of a balance run up. We dont get these v or spike shaped bottoms when we get the volatility in and the volatility out so thats, something im, keeping in mind and just as a couple of recent examples, and maybe not the best examples, but something worth paying attention to is what we Saw in 2021, where, although it was a very volatile move up, this rundown relative to the run up was a little bit more orderly.
Yes, like i said, a lot of volatility up but relative to the rally, it was more orderly and we can just kind of see how it did round out at the bottom before eventually picking back up again. Now, yes, its not the best example. But if you can just kind of squint your eyes a bit and get what i mean with relativity, but a better example perhaps is what we saw in around september of last year. We had somewhat of an orderly drop, then we did get some volatility, but we had some an orderly drop here. Yes, that was quite savage, but after the savage drop off in early september, the market did just go quiet for a period of time and really needed to work its way back up. So this is when a lot of people are still scared and not getting involved. In terms of the masses, because we know the masses are generally fooled, most of the time and most of the money shifts into the smart money and the whales pockets. But i think we may be seeing something similar in terms of a more balanced correction. In terms of balance recovery, rather so we weve had the dip, maybe were going to get another capitulation low, maybe im not exactly certain its. Like. I said, the crystal ball is a little bit murky. We dont have a lot of clear patterns to go off. At least not ones that ive identified in recent history, so the fact that we are starting to slow down at this low of just over 55k – maybe we are going to get more of a balanced recovery.
You know something a little bit more slow and grinding, which is going to bore a lot of people and get people looking elsewhere. Get their attention shifted to something else before they know the markets broken away and on another run so thats. What im planning for thats? What im looking out for this time around now, if youre interested in any of the things ive been talking about on this channel, be sure to check out the links in my description below where weve got a massive black friday special on right now for the tia Memberships or you can get yourself some free bonuses by using the links below so where bitcoin is right. Now i am seeing more of an orderly correction in play and now were starting to get a fair bit more of overlap or indecision, and by that i mean we can just see how much overlap is taking place between the bars. So the fact that thats taking place does kind of murk things up a little bit in terms of the patterns playing out because it just doesnt mean theres, more indecision, indecisiveness people trying to make their mind up, which way this things going to go. First, is it going to go up from here or down, and while i do really like this mid to low 55 000 as a position for bitcoin to base that it doesnt mean it has to base there so obviously take everything. I say with a grain of salt because now the patterns arent so clear and i think it could get a little bit messy.
Obviously the best case scenario is always if we just do get a pump up and then that really gets the trend going again. But until then for me, anyway, its about mapping out a few different scenarios because, like ive said before, the market will do just enough to fool most of the people most of the time. But by mapping out a few different scenarios. When one of them eventually does play out, we can have some kind of an idea of whats going to be going on from that point forward. So my big picture view for bitcoin and crypto in general is still macro bullish and i do encourage you to watch yesterdays video, where i talk about my lines in the sand or whats, going to turn me from a macro bull to a questionable ball. Ive got clearly mapped out what would have to happen to change that view, so do go back and watch that video, but until then the short to medium term is what im looking at right now for how the next days to weeks could be playing out. So well see if this orderly correction does give us an orderly recovery or if we are going to get a capitulation low or something in between. But if you did enjoy this video – and you want to see more of this kind of thing, let me know get the youtube numbers up and until next time ill catch.