I dont really know ive got some reasonable clarity between now and end of year, because theres a seasonality that is pretty observable beyond that. It becomes more speculative in nature, because we dont really have the full signals. I think the adoption by institutions continues and, as we all know, they tend to do january. Asset allocation, particularly if its a new asset class hedge funds, have a new p l. They tend to pile in my guess: is this cycle extends a bit further than people expect, but there will be a bear market? What is that going to look like? Is that going to look like the last one that we had its? Probably a mistake to think that, because the players are different, maybe its longer, maybe its shallower, maybe its just choppy or maybe it doesnt do that at all. Maybe it it just keeps having these sharp corrections down 50 percent and then six months later, its its at new. All time highs again. It was 20 2020 that march to june period, that made me reassess my big macro framework, because we knew what the central banks would do, but they did it harder and faster yep and what we ended up with was the shortest recession in all recorded history and The biggest recession that never happens, what weve done is weve created a reaction function in the central banks to do more because janet and jay will look at each other high five and go.

We nailed it. The world stopped and we only had a two month. Recession and the markets recovered pretty quick. Now we know that the reality of the underlying economy and other things is not so great, but for the central banks theyre going to do more of this, why would they not theyre now thinking do we need a business cycle at all, but what theyre doing, if You actually look at it. The central bank balance sheets, the jeep, the big g4 central bank balance sheets are growing at about 15 a year, so i started thinking this through. I know a lot of people use m2 as a way of understanding printing, but i just im just going to use the balance sheets because thats new stuff, that we know that theyre doing – and i know that – theres no, its its, not a pure way of flowing Into the economy whatever, but anyway, so i put the smp against the fed balance sheet, and all of us have observed that correlation over time and the thing was it kind of told us. What we deep down know is the s p, has kind of gone nowhere. Since 2008, it fell in 2008, the money printing came and the s ps basically been going sideways, and then i looked at gold and it kind of had even underperformed the fred balance sheet. I looked at real estate, it was identical to the fed balance sheet yeah. I then looked at the nasdaq and it had done better because it had all these network stocks in it, and then i looked at bitcoin.

It was like. Oh, this is a whole different world, so theres only one asset that looks like it offset the printing of money. So if you know that – and you are able to trade, it then lets say we go into your quad 4. What are you going to buy right? Well, the highest upside is going to be crypto, so i looked at this and i looked at all the global asset classes, so equities about 250 trillion bonds about 200 trillion real estate about 350 trillion derivatives, one quadrillion ethics. So i looked at that and thought. Okay, we can see the trend rate of growth of adoption. We know that equities are going on. The blockchain bonds are going on the blockchain. The european central bank is already looking at the french central bank, a bunch of others, so thats going to happen so bonds and equities go on the blockchain. People are already starting to tokenize real estate. Well, this is kind of a super asset. Now i dont assume it eats all of them. It could do in the end, because theyll still exist, but theyll be basically on the blockchain. But if im right about crypto, then its currently a two or three trillion dollar asset class and it to be reasonable. It should be worth 200 trillion well thats, 100 x, keith of an asset class, probably in 10 years. You and i nobody in fact has ever seen that in all recorded history, no, no, and that makes and what i like about it, why you say youre all in is because i can be a total idiot pick the wrong thing.

Much like you can do with equities and youve been able to do since the 80s just pick anything and it goes up and so its kind of idiot proof. Now, yes, like equities therell, be bear markets. But if im right and were going from 2 trillion to 200 trillion, the entire asset class is going up 200x. Now it doesnt mean it goes up in price necessary to index, but the opportunity sets going to be enormous, yeah, so thats. Why so many of us are focused on it? If my framework is metcalfes law and its all about adoption effects, then you want to look for the communities or the tokens that are growing. Their ecosystem faster right, defy comes along its all built on eve. Nfts come along all be built on eve. The number of new wallet addresses growing is happening faster at each, so what youve got is the network is growing faster and therefore the price should be going up faster, simple, as that i mean once you understand this metcalfe store things actually all pretty easy to understand, And you just have to abandon linear charts and use log charts, and once you see the log chart, you see the trend, its pretty simple. It gets to like two standard deviations, overbought versus the long term trend. It then corrects for a period of time, and you know in on a linear chart, it looks horrific. Everyone goes see. You know this cryptos worth nothing but on the log chart just goes down to one or two standard deviations oversold and starts all over again and its the same that googles done.

Facebooks done apples done theyre all the same. I did a video that became. I dont know one of the biggest videos ive ever done its like two and a half. Three million views called the retirement crisis, its on youtube, and one of the things i said is listen. If you are a 30 year old millennial, youre pretty right now, because the expected future returns out of equities with all time record high valuations and the boomers needing to sell them over time same with real estate same with bond yields, your ability to generate the same Kind of wealth that your parent generated, the baby boomers is precisely zero and i actually said youve got one chance and that chance is crypto, because you can take risk at your age because youve got nothing to lose right. So we all know theres two times to take risk. One is when youve got nothing to lose and one is when youve, when you can, when you can afford to do it so when youve got nothing to lose, that was march 2020 into september, theyve been given a check 1200 bucks not going to change their life. Theyre stuck at home, they dont need to spend it, so they go on robin hood and they discover call options brilliant and guess what it worked. And suddenly 86 million millennials got financialized all at the same point, but theyre risk takers. They understand crypto, they understand risk. Taking from gaming its very different, we were taught different things and the parents of the boomers were the silent generation and they were much more risk averse because of the back of two world wars.

So now weve got a group that have never seen stuff like that. Before who are who have a lower wealth of their age than any previous generation in history and theyve, seen an opportunity so theyre going to swing from the fences and thats changed? The structure of the option market makes me laugh because everyones like the option markets crazy, look at this complete exponential, um use of oxygen options. This is a bubble. No youve just bought 86 million millennials and probably i dont – know 50 million 70 million gen z into the investing base and give them robinhood options and they cant lose more than they put in yeah for it right. Why the hell not, we all, have to learn the hard way and we also need a few victories and that way they might be able to speed up that process, because you can lose money pretty quick, but you can make some good money quick, too, and whats Really interesting is these: people are all coalescing on a platform like reddit and talking about their losses. Keith, our industry is built around excuse. My french built around people who dont want to talk about losses because it makes them look weak.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4nwJXI_ZM8