Crypto Flash Crash: Is The Crypto Bull Market Ending?
For me, all coins, as you can see, are down 20 or 30 across the board. Some people are saying this is another well manipulation of the market. A lot of people are asking me if we are now in a bear market and ill be going through all the data in this video ill be talking about that real quick before we get started, make sure you join the free discord. The syndicate linked in the description, its great place on days like this, where you can talk to other investors and also do updates on the market as well. We are closing in on 10k members, so i will be closing it more most likely by the end of the month before it gets too crazy. So anyway, bitcoin as you can see, it dropped around 10k in an hour from around 52k to around 42k in a flash crash. I was actually asleep for this and woke up to dozens of tax people asking what was going on. So a crash like this is pretty crazy, but it does happen from time to time in crypto dips, like this usually happen when theres extreme food in the markets, like back in march 2020, when covet was first coming on the scene and people were getting worried. It was going to be the new black plague or whatever, and it also happens when the market gets too frothy and people decide to get greedy and they take out leveraged positions, because everyone is just so sure that the market will keep going up.
As you can see, if we look at the bitcoin liquidation statistics in the last 24 hours, two and a half billion dollars has been wrecked, a lot of it retail investors. Of course, some of it will be institutions as well its not as much as weve, seen before back in lets, say april or may, because a lot of people did get burned back then, and they have stayed away from leverage and also it and it wasnt anywhere Near as big of a dip down to 30k, like we have seen before the biggest question, is though, why did this happen? Some people are pointing out to bad news that has been coming out recently, some stuff to do with china and also the stock market weakening, and i think its a bit naive to assume that this alone was the cause of the magnitude of a sell off. Like this, in reality, when the market is selling off by 10k, in an hour, its very likely going to be a group of whales coming together to sell when there are a few eyes on the market, when a lot of people are sleeping, and then they cause This massive panic and they get some cheap bitcoin. The pattern that we have seen uh play out over the last couple months. This kind of big wick up uh, followed by a high, followed by a slightly higher high and then a massive wick down. The other side is similar to what we have seen before um from the wyckoff uh distribution.
Where we have the wick up, then it kind of distributes in the zone, and then it comes back down the other side. It is, of course, similar to what we saw earlier this year only was this is more of a shortened version of it essentially now the question is: is this: where were going to stay at 48k? Are we going to come back down to 41 or 42k and consolidate there in the short term? I will be talking about the data behind that a little bit later in the video, but in both cases we had these big wicks up, followed by a new all time high and then generally, there was signs that the market was kind of getting a little bit Tired, where you cant really set too much higher of a high and then, of course, it came back down the other side, and we kind of saw the same thing play out here as well. Now, of course, bitcoin going up or down is simply a function of supply and demand and when theres a lot more demand a lot of hype around the markets, we get these big moves up and then, when supply and demand are a lot more equal and perhaps People are studying the markets and looking at that um, it may be a sign of weakness in the markets, and then we have these big sell offs when, essentially, all the buyers, uh theres, no buyers left to buy the bitcoin its almost like musical chairs and people Get the sense that the market is running out of buyers to hold a bag, and so you get these big wicks down these big sell offs.
Some of it is panicking, but a lot of it is calculated selling. In my opinion, that takes some profits, but also liquidates a lot of positions and allows whales to sweep up massive amounts of cheap crypto, because theyre often the only ones that get their orders fulfilled because of the over in the over the counter exchanges that they uses Compared to not having to deal with the craziness of getting their order fulfilled automatically by an exchange which, even if you have a limit order, doesnt always work. Even if you have a stop loss, it doesnt always work, whereas if youre selling it over the counter can be pretty much done instantly and a lot of exchanges. I didnt really hear too much of this happening at this time, but a lot of exchanges uh closed down or werent able to process all the orders. They were getting back here again, which i think will probably happen towards the end of the bull run as well. Where we have a massive sell off, this market crash also reminds me somewhat of march 2020, when there was increasing fear about the stock market, and there was increasing fear about covid like there is right now with the new variants, and then we did have a much Bigger crash uh, where we went from 8k down to around 4k and thats only what its showing the wick was down to 3k, and i did have a lot of people asking me.
Is it similar to what we are right now, and i do think that, while the magnitude wont be anywhere near as big and hasnt been um, i do think that the effect will be somewhat similar, where it doesnt take like what we saw during the summer or It takes months to crash further and further and further and then months to rebound slowly. I think itll be more likely that we do have this flash crash and then over the next couple months we will be starting to see the market. Do probably something like this, because i do think that it will be q1 or at the latest q2, when the full uh, where we get the final leg of the ball, run where we get the most parabolic end and thats. When the market does end and then goes into a multi year, bear market, so a question i have been getting is: are we in a bear market right now, and i didnt expect that we would have this flash crash down to 42k? I didnt think we would have this in december. I thought we might have some consolidation down to around 52k and then we would kind of slowly start going back up towards setting a new all time, high, maybe end of december or january. But of course, these flash crashes do happen from time to time at crypto. I dont think anyone was expecting it there. No one was expecting it there.
No one was expecting it there, so they happen from time to time. Where you have these 30 to 40 sell offs during the 2017 bull run, i think there was seven or eight different sell offs that are around 40. So while you know if you havent experienced too many of them before it may seem like the market is over right now, but that is far from the case now. Eventually, there will be a 40 drop that is the end of the market, but based on on chain data that i will be talking about a little bit more on the discord later on, and also i might make a more detailed video if people want to see It as well um it doesnt look like were at that stage or anywhere near that stage. At this point there are essentially two camps of people right now. Some people believe that the market is going to crash much further, potentially heading down to 20k for bitcoin and obviously much lower for all coins as well and then well, just straight away head into a multi year. Crypto winter bear market, and that will last for many years until 2025 or whatever and the other kappa people say that the original dips in may fundamentally lengthen the market cycle and that, even though perhaps the initial thought was that the market would end at the end Of 2021, its now pretty obvious that the peak will occur sometime in 2022, as ive been saying for months, i do believe that the bull run will end in q1 or at the latest q2 of 2022.
I think its possible that this could be the end, but based on the on chain data ive seen so far and more will come out in the next coming days that doesnt support that this is the end. If you see this flash crash will mean, i think that the market wont be setting a new high. I dont think until 2022 crashes of 40 percent generally arent what retail investors want to see before theyre thinking about getting in the market for the first time. So i think that the market will have to recover not slowly as in it wont take months and months once months like this, but i think it probably will take most of december, if not all of december, maybe even early january before bitcoin is able to slowly Build its way back up to 50 to 60k, and then, after that, i think it will be a more of a snowball effect like what we saw here, where the market then shoots up to 80k or 100k bitcoin before the next big consolidation. I think it is possible that we will consolidate back down to 42 41 40k, this general zone over the next few days. So far we have wick down and the market has bounced back up to 48k. Of course, it would be better for the market in terms of how fast it can recover if it doesnt consolidate further and spend an extended period of time down at 42, 41k or whatever.
The fear and greed index, unsurprisingly, is registering at extreme fear right now. I did see something on twitter that it was below 10, which almost never happens when the crash was happening. I think many retail ambassadors will have gotten burned in the short term and theyll be waiting this out until the market recovers somewhat to jump back in similar to what happened to popular stocks like tesla this year. I think it is important to remember that this index doesnt necessarily reflect how the majority of bitcoin being held is feeling right now it represents how the majority of investors are feeling right now, and the majority of bitcoin is held by wales, and i dont think that They will be feeling as much fear, so this might lead you to think that we have a long way to go before the market recovers. But if wales are generally buying the dip and expecting 100 150k bitcoin over the next few months, then this doesnt generally represent the picture and the unchained data of whos buying bitcoin, which i will be covering later in the discord and other stats like. That is a much more uh solid indicator of what is actually going on uh with people who hold the most bitcoin. El salvador did also buy the dip, didnt buy much of the dip and only spent 6 million or whatever, but it did buy the dip 150. At 48 000., this isnt that surprising, as they do, do it pretty much every dip, but it does help to restore some confidence among investors who follow them and look to see what they are doing right now.
I think it probably is a smart thing to do. Buying the dip around 48k, if you look at it over a period of the next three months, because i do think we are gon na – have a very bullish, q1 and potentially q2 of 2022 to cap off this bull run. Most all coins got absolutely hammered. It doesnt look too bad, but earlier today they were all down. 20 30 percent cardano went as low as around 120. I believe i still think that cordano will have a very bullish 2022. Based on the fundamentals i explained in yesterdays video, although clearly uh, it hadnt reached a dip and pretty much this flash crash made it dip even further, i will be buying the dip under 154 ada whats. Very interesting, though, is that ethereum is still above 4k. It only went down around eight percent and obviously these were. These numbers were a little bit different when the crash was happening, but it didnt dip anywhere near as much as bitcoin, and i think this is very bullish for ethereum. It shows that a lot of people werent letting go of their ethereum, a lot of whales, werent selling their ethereum, even for the chance of potentially buying it back cheaper because it probably indicates what they expect to happen over the next few months, that the risk and Reward just isnt worth it. I did post a video a month or so ago about selling some bitcoin, because the risk to reward wasnt as good as some of the big all coins.
I think if bitcoin were to go below 40k, i would consider it a bear market like what we saw during the summer where bitcoin went down to around 30k and spent a few months down there. That doesnt mean that were going to spend anywhere near as much time in a uh, an inter cycle bear market or whatever you want to call it a bear market during a bull run, but if it does go below 40k, that is where i would classify it. As a bear market in the short term, but not necessarily one thats going to lead to a multi year, crypto winter, at least not yet, i think once crypto breaks through the support that we have established down here at summer down around 29k. I think thats, probably when you can officially say: okay, the long bull run. The long bear market is here to stay. Of course you dont necessarily want to be waiting for that final sign to be getting out of the markets. You definitely dont, but that would be the last confirmation when the show was over and you would have had to have taken a lot of profits by then i will be picking up a lot of layer ones. During the sell off some solana, some cardano polka dot got absolutely hammered. I wont be picking up much dot, though um, because i think that that will be a coin ill, be picking up boatloads of during the actual bear market whenever it comes because its a solid, long term project.
But i dont see that it has too many catalysts. Uh coming for it in its future, i will be buying up some luna. Unfortunately, luna hasnt had much of a dip. It did wick down to, i think 30 dollars, so it kind of sucks if you had a stop loss around there, but if luna were to go back under 50, which it probably wont just based on its barely dipped at all. If that does happen, i would be picking up some luna avalanche uh. I probably will be buying the dip ill, be just kind of waiting to see where the market ends up over the next few days does bitcoin consolidate back down to 42k uh matic as well. I will be buying matic uh, probably under around 170. If i uh, if it does go back down there, i will be picking up a lot of and studying a lot of um metaverse and gaming cryptos decentraland uh sandbox. Neither of them are necessarily where id consider them great deals yet uh sandbox under five dollars, i think, would be a great deal and i think, decentraland under three dollars. I think a lot of there will be a lot of opportunities to pick up a lot of new coins that are launching in this space uh over the last couple weeks. Theyve just taken off like a rocket, and they havent necessarily had much time to pick them up, and i will also be picking up coins that ive talked about in the trading series that ive talked about in my previous videos talking about gaming, cryptos and the metaverse.
I think pretty much all of those coins are solid holes that will do very, very well over q1 and q2 and i will be hinting at what coins im picking up in the syndicate discord and i will be going through my buys and sells on patreon.