Today we are going to talk about a coming recession. What this means how russia ukraine plays into this were going to be talking about the fed rates uh. We got some surprising and then some not so surprising news from the fed this week, as we are heading towards the middle of march, which could be doomsday for crypto and the stock market and the whole economy. Okay, so its a big video, so im not even really sure where to start. I guess we got to start where things are in ukraine, because that is very important to this whole conversation. This could end up, and this is going to sound, very callous, but accept it for face value at what it is. The conflict over in ukraine with russia could actually help out the markets in the united states for this year. Now let me explain what i mean by that we do have the fed supposed to raise rates in the middle of march. Most people were expecting a 50 bips or 50 point raise. Half a percent basically is what it boils down to now pretty much across the board. It is now considered to be that a 25 bip or a 0.25 uh rate raise will be the max. So that is the kind of uh you know not so surprising news but kind of the more surprising news. Is it doesnt look like regardless of whats going on in russia and ukraine right now that theyre, considering not raising rates? Why are they not considering or why are they? Why is not raising rates in march off the table, economies and shambles it is heading towards what could be the scariest economic move of our entire lifetimes, and i know that sounds very doomsday, but lets look at the latest gdp numbers.

Okay, the latest gdp numbers that came out for the united states were seven percent growth in the economy over quarter, four thats, not a huge percentage of growth. Okay, so lets compare that to the cpi number, the consumer price index, which they use for uh. You know tracking inflation, which is totally made up number. The number is probably way way more than that, but its also about seven percent year over year. So if our economy now were comparing quarter to year, but lets just lets just think about this. If our economy grew seven percent, but inflation is up seven percent over the last year did we actually grow the economy at all. Many people would argue that we havent weve actually been going backwards and the numbers are being inflated to borrow a term from uh. You know current buzzwords, okay, so if the economy is not growing, inflation is only getting worse. Where are we heading, and you also have to take into consideration on this discussion the fact that wages in the united states are not rising. That was also a report that just came out so regardless of whats happening in russia and ukraine right now, and you know, were not going to get too geopolitical today about this. Well, talk im sure about this on the live stream this week, as we need to start looking at what a solution could look like. How does this end? How long does this go the longer? It goes most likely, the better for our economy, thats, a very dark thing to say, but thats true.

If this is over very quickly, then there will probably be much more aggressive raising of rates. Now, none of us want war. We dont want this to continue. Nobody wants this to continue. We wish there was a solution to this yesterday, people, you know, i think its like 25 civilians and 100 civilians or 25 civilians have died in ukraine. 100 have been injured. We all see the footage. I was actually watching these people today, uh on some news channel talking about how professional the operation was and how there hasnt really been that much damage compared to what russia could do. So i i dont know that that was also like a very dark thing to hear people saying, but it is what it is at this point, guys that you know there hasnt been a ton of um. You know uh collateral damage at this point other than the main targets. Theres been a lot of damage to buildings, but it could be a lot worse and it could get a lot worse. Theres now talks of nuclear threats and stuff like this, so this can unfold in a very dramatically different way, one way or the other, but if it continues thats going to really stifle the plans of the fed to raise rates, but at minimum over this year, theyre Going to have to raise rates like one percent, why is inflation continues to grow and as gt gdp continues to stifle? Is wages continue to hit ceilings and not rise above the cost of inflation? This leads to protesting.

This leads to civil unrest. This leads to um. You know people wanting to take action because theyre, you know maybe people arent necessarily hungry. I know there are certainly people in the united states that are hungry, but youre middle class people its not like theyre starving at this point, but when they cant pay their car payments, they cant pay their mortgage. This stuff starts to add up, and the middle class really really really gets affected. So where does this put us at this puts us? It looks like almost no matter what, at this point, heading towards an absolute recession. The question is the timing. When does this happen? Does this happen at the end of this year? Some forecasters are saying november december. Some people are saying next year will be a very dark year. I believe. Last year it was going to be this year, but things have just continued to be pushed and pushed and pushed jerome powell should be fired. The fact the jerome powell did not raise rates already and its so far, behind the eight ball that now, in light of a world disaster, uh a war, the biggest war in world in europe by the way since world war ii, the biggest invasion since world war Ii, his hands are tied. He cant do anything because he waited too long and kept saying that inflation was tran, uh transitory, which meant that it was just. You know, for a short period of time and itd go back to normal.

What an idiot jerome powell needs to be fired, theres, no question about it. I dont even know who has the power to do that? I assume you know. Technically, the federal reserve is a private entity, but all of its board members are from the government. So its a little confusing on who im not sure who would actually make that call, but he needs to be fired. He has gotten our economy in the worst shape that its in my lifetime that its been in, and so we really have to wonder whats going to happen and well, you know if you really want to you know get into it here. World economic forums looks like a great time for a great reset, its probably what theyre going to be pushing for, but we dont know whats going to happen ultimately in russia and ukraine, but in the united states we do know. Recession is probably coming at some point. Now can they extend it another year and it doesnt come till 2024? I dont know, but how does this affect crypto? How does this affect bitcoin? Well, a lot of people have already factored in a 50 bip or a 50, a half, a percent increase at the fed meeting coming in march. That will enact in the middle of march, but now the general thought is theres no way it can be less or the way theres. No way it can be more than 25 bibs or 0.

25. So all that being said and all that being taken into consideration, this could be good for the markets and then, of course, if, if the the invasion and the war unravels and gets to be a larger conflict, and we get drawn into that, there will probably be Another plunge down, but ultimately that would be bullish for for the price of bitcoin. And let me tell you, i tweeted about this on twitter best place to tweet im, so sick of people saying that that i or anyone else that we cant comment on the realities of our financial situation, because theres a war going on somewhere and people are getting Hurt thats so idiotic, uh guys what matters more to you individually as a person if you live in the united states. Now, if you live in europe, this is a little more complicated. If you live in the united states, what matters more people that you dont know in a situation that you cannot affect, or your future ability to be able to provide for your family, because, ultimately, the end result is the same for either one. If you cant provide for your family, then your familys on the street the same place. People in ukraine are finding themselves just because youre not under a dire attack of your physical safety. That doesnt mean you cant, be concerned about your portfolio. These are very important. Big picture things that people need to talk about and need to understand.

So when it comes to how to manage this crisis and understand this situation when it comes to uh your portfolio, the best thing that i can tell you right now stan pat just stand. Pat, we dont know if this is the best place to get in. We dont know if this is a great place to sell. We just dont know yet we have to wait and see how things unravel a little bit more. But if you are the type of person that you want to get ahead and maybe take advantage of whats um, you know presented before you whether its to get out of the market in the morning. Just remember, you know: dont just pick one strategy dont go all in on one thing: maybe if youre feeling scared you want to sell some and move it to the side. Maybe if you think this is ultimately going to end in price action for bitcoin going up. Maybe you want to accumulate some keep more money on the sideline thats, the most important thing, part of whatever the plan you want to do. Do that, but dont go all in on one strategy: thats, never a great thing to do in a time of uncertainty. So later, today, im going to be back were going to be talking a little bit about xrp swift. What this means with russia they just been removed from the swift banking system were going to talk a lot about that in a video tonight and then also dont.

Forget tomorrow we have jeremy, hogan and jeremy deaton, jeremy, hogan and john dean coming on the channel uh to discuss xrp and the case all right, guys, thats.