I i need to orient myself as well here its absolutely crazy whats going on um bitcoin, obviously came below 30k, so it hasnt strictly reached my target area of 29k. Yet but i mean we came down to 29.8, i mean that is um for me. I think very successful, given that weve been talking about this price area back in november december, and i was able to prepare most of you at least for these price movements, that it happened here so fast in the last few days. Um that surprised me as well. So obviously, im going to update you in separate videos about the altcoins, but tara luna with its pegging issue. That is something that obviously happened, that also a ta cannot sort of forecast, but what we could do in the ta was to show you an alternative scenario. If bit, if terra luna drops below a certain level, it will come down all the way down to 25 dollars, so unfortunately, it maxed that out as well so a lot of selling pressure and obviously terra luna is a thing in its own. With the people saying its gon na collapse now completely which, to be honest, nobody knows all right. Nobody knows if obviously a when a project obviously gets gets messed up or is under attack or some whatever it is um. You know these are some circumstances that just of course, scta cannot forecast it here. It can only give you an orientation.

The market can give you an edge in the market, can help you identify opportunities and identify with a high likelihood potential reversal points, and this is exactly what were doing, and one potential reversal point is this area here between 20 and 29 k for bitcoin um, which Weve had on the chart since the end of november. I think, for the very first time i made you aware in september, but in september we were still on our way to new all time highs and at that time the all time high scenario was more likely until we dropped below 53k. That was the invalidation point for the bullish scenario, and at that point i this year became my primary scenario. Nobody wanted it, nobody wants it unless people wanted to buy cheaper, but it was a journey. I can tell you that, and it still is a journey and were gon na do this here together on this channel right, um and um, i think, were all learning a lot as well and then on our way up, we will know how it all came together, Which target areas the altcoins in the end reached how they maxed them out their target areas, because i think they are now all in there. I would need to double check um. I will need to double check polygon medic hasnt reached it yet, but also on its way to it. I believe um yeah, so bitcoin. What did they do it? Obviously, from a high level.

Point of view 20 to 29k is the target area here um. We have important support on the left hand side here back in june july, where we have a real zone of support in that area where we currently are. As you can see here, this is a significant low, also here previously back in january 21. This is pretty much where were hovering around now around that area of 30k 29.8. This 30k is also a psychologically very, very relevant area and um. You can see here when we actually came down back in may 21. This was basically to the same area. The overall drop in percent was less because we obviously did not reach any well. We did reach a new water high, but we did come even higher back in november, but um. We obviously spent quite a long time in this area. Yeah we were sort of not bleeding out but um, coming down, slowly slowing down the downtrend that gave people the opportunity to buy in if they wanted to um. We had a lot of weeks coming down, they were all brought up and in the end, the 30k level wasnt broken really yeah only for a short period of time, but that was it. It was like the last step and then we had a breakout to the upside, and that was it and what are we doing here now, weve come down to the same level, pretty much um as forecasted overall and we have reached here for this wave 3.

I told you that this, in my view, is now a wave 3 that was just in time um a relabeling of those waves here, because until then i expected a corrective move up before we come down, so bitcoin took the direct route which, in the end, i Think most people preferred, because it is just it just means – the correction can probably be over later earlier, and everybody i think, wants to have this overall correction over, because any sort of diversion any corrective move up takes much more time like this did. All of this was, or that with this was this upward. Sloping channel was just a corrective move up. Therefore, i had labeled it as a wave 4, which is a corrective wave. As you know, a wave 4 can be very boring, can be very long. We experienced that just before christmas as well. It was also a wave 4., not that long though it it was here yeah, and this drop yesterday remember reminded me of the drop from the 4th of december, where we also came down all the way to 42k uh, but it was all brought up and we Came up to 50k again in the end that week was filled, but it was also a wave four here that we did yeah a corrective wave four and um. Then we came down in a wave five, and this was part of a larger wave. Three now we had our wave four here, um, which also took a long time and from here we now rushed down, and we are in this fifth wave down that you can see here and this fifth wave should be the last wave of the downtrend, but its Not a straight line as you can see, weve got waves and sub waves and we can also see that with them.

With this wave three here in yellow yesterday, i showed you an a possible target area to get into to complete the wave three and we came into it. We did undershoot it slightly with the selling pressure thats going on here and these target areas. They are only, they are um target areas where, with the highest likelihood, we are going to see it turn around now. Of course it can be and it can undershoot it slightly um, but it looks like at the moment that, for the wave three at least here the low could be in which means that we could see a corrective move up now in a way. Four, this wont be much though, before we see another move down in a wave, five um. At least that is here the current scenario: how i see it and we can um, we can draw the fibonacci retracement levels for that wave 4 that could be coming. So the area, sorry with the highest likelihood for a wave 4 to get into, would be the 33.6 k level. So we draw the which we draw take the length of the wave three and we um we get the area with the highest likelihood is the retracement to the 38.2 fibonacci level. So this is the area where we ideally see wave 4 to get into just to give you some orientation, and then we have here the 50 fib retracement as well. I dont know why this says 21.

4. It should be the 23.5 one sec um, 38.2. 20. 23.6. For retracement, that is sort of the the first um, the first level, where we would expect some kind of resistance here, the 23.6. As you can see, this is also, at the same time the resistance level of the target area. So we can expect you some resistance. There 23.6 is sort of the minimum requirement for a wave 4 um, so it wouldnt be a lot at all. It would only go up to 32.1 and theoretically here. The wave 4 could be finished already um, but the ideal level, and we can only work in the space with probabilities. The ideal level would be here somewhere between the 38.2 level, which is 33.6 k and the 50 fibonacci retracement at 34.8. The way we currently see this play out here and the selling pressure um, i mean depending on how this playing out, but it might be that bitcoin doesnt retrace a lot because i think the low isnt in yet we havent even reached the 28.7k level. That is really the beginning of the large target area here. That is where the lower low starts compared to the low in june. That is what we need to reach in this expanded flat pattern, in my opinion, um, so yeah expecting now a retracement up, not not a lot anymore, so just a wave four just a shallow wave 4, and the reason for that is that the wave 2 retraced Quite a lot yeah in terms of the retracement levels.

You can see that here this was the wave 1 low. This is the wave 2. It retraced quite a bit compared to the beginning of the wave one and then um yeah. The wave four should just be here, this 38.2 percent retracement, ideally, and then we could see a move down in the wave five and that could take us then already in the target area from this wave five. This was a would, however, only complete a higher level degree wave three. Then we should see thats corrected in a larger wave four, and then we get our final capitulation, hopefully um so yeah. I think we can all expect lower prices for many coins still yesterday. I think it was quite a bit of a over signal to everybody that no the low for bitcoin is not yet in. Nevertheless, i think personally, the current levels for bitcoin the prices. They are absolutely amazing, but we also need to understand that there is a potential to max out this target area completely down to 20k. Can we drop below it some people talking about 12k already and yes, this is possible um and i will adjust my target area if we get closer or if we get further into the yellow target area, seeing how the price reacts to these fibonacci levels and everything An ideal level would be the 27k level, that is, the 61.8 fibonacci retracement level um of the whole move of bitcoin, and that would be a very, very important support level.

If we drop below that yeah, we could drop just below 20k to the 78.6 level. I think that is around 18k, but yeah. If you lose, that 12k is possible. I mean these are just areas where we get into with the highest likelihood and um this area hasnt moved since the end of november. So we need to see how now the next waves play out and then we can possibly narrow it down further and im, probably going to do that in the next few days, but yeah. This is bitcoin currently um again not reached yet the target area. But i think we can already count this as um a success, because it is proven to be the correct pathway overall, yeah um, with bitcoin getting from up here to here. Warning people making people aware the prices are with a high likelihood, going to drop even further, which is happening and we are. We can now wait for the reversal now that can take a while. I dont want to paint a super good picture here that can take a while. We can spend some time in the target area. We can even mix it out. I mean even this move here back in may took from may all the way to july. So this already, this took a couple of months um, so we just need to be aware of that and to enable in order to show you here the next. What would be the next target for bitcoin right for in the for the lets say this is a wave one.

All we are doing here is wave two lets say we max out the target area then target for the next major wave for bitcoin. The 1.618 trip extension would be 120 k. At least this would be the minimum if we end a little bit higher here in this target area. It would also go up, as you can see, it shifts those targets up and we can talk about maybe 125k bitcoin, but in the end, if we get 220k or 125k, probably doesnt, really matter too much, and also this is only the minimum target for the next Major wave, the wave 3 to the upside um and yeah to qualify for away three. It needs to reach at least that 1.618 fib extension, so short term now um lo higher prices expected yeah. That is currently my view here. Um before we come down once more. If we take a look at the the indicators i mean it was, it was, you know, down to 25 on the daily um here the four hour came down to 11.. I dont think ive seen 11 rsi on bitcoin before that is absolutely no its crazy. Oh yeah, there was one look the four hour chart here: november 2019, absolutely crazy levels and um. I will for every channel member. Yet just that you know today i will update systematically my buy order sheet because i believe most of them have triggered now um. I will probably add one or two more buy orders for everybody who is interested to buy even lower um.

I mean weve, been dollar cost averaging into bitcoin. I will update these. I will flag up high risk, cryptos um and i will do that later today, but it wont be before uh the evening here, uk time and currently its early in the morning. So i have a bit of patience, but i will do that today and then well. Make channel members aware of my updated, buy and sell order sheet? Alright, so hopefully you like the update, if you did please hit the like button, leave a comment and subscribe and if you really like the content, check out the channel membership, and maybe even my trading course, im currently uploading onto the website, morecryptonline.