I actually missed that last little major with down as i was sleeping but got to uh got to enjoy all the fun before that anyways with that said, i would like to sincerely wish you the best of the best and the happy sappiest, even during these more Uh distraught in times and were gon na be going over the short term time frame in this, as we have hit the more higher term timeframe targets and now what thats? What it means for the next few days here and perhaps mediate that with some more long term analysis if time does allow other than that, i should humbly request that if you do find this content, valuable or if you just want to get back in a nice And free way, the like button is the easiest way to do that. You can always dislike it at the end, if you dislike it, you know its all good. On top of that instagram bunch of scammers, there only have one account. The it is in the link description below, as is the buy bit, show link for some good old leverage trading. As always, when it comes to leverage trading. I strongly suggest you not doing it unless you already have a winning strategy which can do without risking any finances by simply back testing on a paper or test out account or even using the crown trading application, which does have a trading journal over here. And that is also for free as well.

Only until then would i suggest maybe considering it all right first. So lets start off with this chart over here. I want to once again follow up on this one as the target has been not just hit but smash, and that is the daily volatility versus stochastic chart. First, first things: first, we start off with this with the uh, with the daily bbwp over here, representing volatility. The dispersion of returns and anytime that we have to get down into the single digit percentiles over the past couple years. The expansion phase from there has on average, led to about a 20 move. Now we did say that, because this current one over here was down for so much longer at a more extreme uh pace. Well, the expansion phase from that is probably going to be on the upper end of that, which is maybe closer to 30 percent and thats. Actually, what weve gotten thus far in this case, obviously daily socas momentum was giving us the direction on this as of just a couple weeks ago, in late april, and in this case i believe we have played down almost 30 – actually uh yeah about. Oh sorry, about 26 from the expansion, so very much in alignment with that. Yes, i do still think that bitcoin can maybe come back down and re test around these lows. But ultimately, i do think that bitcoin very likely puts in a little bit of a bouncy bounce rally off of these lows, first and foremost, which which were basically seeing right now.

Actually, i mean bitcoins almost three: what 3 000 bucks off the lows: yeah uh yeah? I think i think you could very much say that, so this is playing out uh as intended, or i i actually. I really dont want to use that terminology, because thats thats, not what real trading is were looking at. Statistics were looking at probabilities thats. What were looking at thats thats? What i want to focus on i dont want to get in this. It was exactly as predicted. No, you cant predict, theres only statistics theres only probabilities. Anything else is silliness um other than that uh. The things that do make me look at this as likely to bounce around this region is one round psychological, even number many people, looking at thirty thousand bucks, which is likely going to about us in the ass later on, but for right now, okay, we have a Major volume extreme here, so this is a cataclysmic volume event. I would say, at least in the context of the last uh in the last year. Obviously, last last uh summer, like literally one year ago, we saw much greater over here, but this is you know. This is like the first major spike that weve seen in a long time now. So this is a particular interest and usually a good short term. At least bottoming point, which is what i believe, that we do have anyways other things that do suggest that bitcoin is likely putting in a nice uh short term or medium term low, which perhaps could be a macro low over time.

Although i do reserve my, i do, reserve uh skepticism about that again pointing towards the weekends video which, if youre more interested in a long term, macro analysis, the video from sunday in the long term, analysis playlist still very much relevant in this case right here. We do see daily bbwp is, you know up to like 95 96 percentile right now it actually jumped up about 40 percentile from 50 to 90, uh plus in just one day here. So this is suggesting – or at least it is suggesting that uh we probably are gon na, be looking for contraction phase relatively soon. Contraction phase equates to likely correction within the current context of a downtrend bounce um, of course, all lower time time frames below this are already redlining here, two years or 12 hour, heres our full hour, for example, and uh, and so on and so forth. So you know very likely looking for a bit of a corrective phase here again, there might be one more sweep of you know around the lows, but ultimately i do think that we have a nice low end for now at least anyways other than that. As far as the uh, as far as the higher term timeframes go that do suggest a bounce remember, we did come off of this region over here. Sorry, let me uh, let me pull up the macro chart uh. This is the not 0.5 fib. Obviously – and this is a macro from the ultimate high to the ultimate low of the past market cycle – and you know on a on a closing basis – we do expect a bounce from here and so far so good uh.

On top of that, what else do we have? That does suggest bouncy bounce times over? Here we are seeing our first sort of spike into negative funny rate territory. It is kind of questionable just because obviously you do expect negative rates and a strong downtrend just like expect positive rates and a strong uptrend, but hey you know a little bit a little bit of short term hope you might suppose right there and then, on top Of that, if we go over here to our stocas momentum charts, you will notice that on the daily specifically for cme, this is a big one. For me, if bitcoin closes above the pivot here at 30, 640 today for cme, which i believe is 5 pm central standard time – then very likely – we do initiate that corrective bounce here um. So i id keep a key, and i on that region, obviously uh other lower term timeframes, pivoted around that same region as well. If we go to the six hour thousand six hundred pretty much, the exact same number four hour is showing about uh, thirty thousand. Even so, ultimately, im looking at extremes on on bbwp plus momentum, turning up as indicated indication of a corrective balance, so the question becomes: where does you know the bounce likely come up towards, assuming that we do play it out? Well, lets go back to this chart over here. Lets, go down to a lower term timeframe and lets denote a couple things.

First and foremost, we do see the gapola from cme uh, coming in from last friday to this monday, open and thats at around about thirty five thousand bucks um, and that is also, if we take a fib of this current range b at the three eight two. So i would say anywhere between about thirty. Four five to thirty five thousand five hundred region is uh is fair game. There doesnt mean it necessarily to get there, but anywhere within that box. I would be looking for a bit of a pullback and then come back to it, after that i wouldnt necessarily call like a full on collapse after that, nor a continuation, its a nothing its just. You know for right now, probably looking at a bit of sideways and probably up with maybe one more test back down around about 30 000 bucks thats completely fine. Ultimately, though um i do believe that long term risk is lower, so just as a general sort of mike mark psychology thing or something that ive kind of noticed myself and many others as well. Im sure – or i know for certain – is that any time that you do have a a major number like this 30 000 bucks, which many people are talking about. It was a target for a lot of the bears, its its been an area that must hold for a lot of bulls its. You know something that you know just keeps on getting spoken about in the media many times or almost always, itll bounce off those regions.

Initially and then perhaps a few weeks later, you know rolls over and then everyone pukes it up and fair enough and remember, we do have several things that do you know suggest lower over time, so ill get into them right now. I want to present something thats. Actually, new um for this uh for this particular stream here and that would be yeah. That would be this chart right here. Okay, so this is a bi weekly chart and what were going to be looking at is the deviations from the green moving average, which is a 55 exponential, in fact, ill just get rid of everything, except for that, so its nice and easy to see and im Talking about this baby right here, anyways anytime, that we have seen a deviation from it as bitcoin you know, puts in its macro cycle lows: uh that deviation has had a well well ill. Just show you its been its been pretty consistent. Basically is what im going to try to say and what i mean by that is that from the break of hey, this is not uh. Oh no! No! Its on this chart over here, thats. Why uh? Yes, here we go here, we go sorry. The other was was uh was relevant for a weekly which well get into soon enough, which well get into soon enough uh, but the deviation from that green 55 towards the towards a low like the ultimate low. In that case, the generational low, if you will um, has been you know, on average, pretty consistent in this case, you can see coming in back from uh whats called uh 2014 2015 market cycle.

Let me actually do this properly, because this is a little bit off right there. There we go. This one was about 50 from high to low on the break of the 55 in this case taken about – and let me actually get this right as well – uh taken about 28 days so about a month from the actual break itself. Obviously bitcoin still took, like you know three four months to re, accumulate on the lows and you know basically about a year before it ever really did anything interesting to the upside. Yet again, but yes, you know that was uh very consistent with what we see over here in even 2018 um and this one again taking about 28 days from break of that 55 to the next major macro low. Again, it takes about three months before bitcoin gets going again but 46 to the downside, and you can compare that again with the rona dump over here this one doing about 44 or sorry 45 to the downside, this one really done, basically all of it. In seven days, uh, let alone 14, but you know basically, one period again. This one was more of a black swan. If you will and then what do we have over here? Well, we can kind of forecast these sort of things. I suppose you know get a general guideline id say on average about a month, so 28 days give or take you know – probably seven days from that number and if we were to shave off and keep in mind that this number is going down over time.

So we start up 50, 45, ish or sorry 46 and then 45 about a year later, um. Ultimately, you know we do expect, probably somewhere more around like 40 um. If you will – and that puts bitcoin, you know around low 20 000 territory about 21, 000 ish, or so you know obviously thats confidential with a few other things as well. I think everyone like the next meme within this mark is going to be sailor, is going to get liquid. I dont know how true that is. I dont even know if i really care if that even matters, to be honest with you, you know these things have been in the charts for a long time now, uh. Also, on that note, we can bring up this chart here yet again, which uh, which is right here – is the monthly chart. It hasnt gone away, its been relevant ever since we pointed it out in january and february, and we have the monthly macd cross. The downside represented by these green vertical bars also losing the moving average on the pmerp over here, but less important, and then the final sort of nail in the coffin was the closure on a monthly closing basis below that white. 20. Simple thats. What really catalyzed the drive down again to that green moving average, which is a 55 exponential in this case? You know boom about another half year and then finds its lows and then about a year.

Another year gets going again. We can see the same thing over here in 2018, closed below all the way down to 55 bases there for about a quarter and then up again same thing over here in the rona and then once again or perhaps the same thing over here as bitcoin did Close below the white twenty simple obviously already got the monthly macd across the downside, uh much earlier within this year, so taking his time obviously um, and that would be about 25 000 bucks. Again, you can get wicks lower, thats, completely fine, but ultimately thats kind of where id be perhaps looking for a long term. If this, if this bounce attempt does roll over, perhaps over the summer, now again im notoriously terrible with timing, because i dont, i dont – think that you can actually reasonably do it, but id imagine probably over the summer. I think that we probably do see the lows in this market. You know maybe around like end of uh summer or early q4 of this uh of this year. Um. What else do we have? Okay, all right, uh? Yes, i forgot to mention this. We also have the silver cross over here, uh, the silver cross very similar actually to the prior deviation that we looked at in terms of targets, but i suppose worthwhile to call out yet again uh. We did an analysis on this over the weekend and i believe yesterday as well.

All these red circles represent the silver crosses to the downside. You know same sort of thing basically, but uh. You can see that that would imply you know somewhere down around here, and that also is, i would say, confidential with the 618 target and then the last thing should i even bring up the five day. Volatility versus momentum chart probably shouldnt even bring this up. You already know uh, but basically five day, bbwp versus uh versus momentum. We have seen extreme lows on the five day, bbwp, so im a lot more stronger than the daily. Of course again, you can get daily bounces within the context of a five day trend here, but ultimately um any time that weve seen it this low for the past couple years. The expansion phase from that has, on average, been about 45 percent um done over the course of about just over 40 days, so for right now, weve seen expansion, id say officially as of uh uh yeah late april, so about two three weeks into this right now. Uh, probably have another a few weeks to go to be fair and uh 45 on average. Again, you know that is an average, but that would forecast a price target to the downside from that expansion point towards about 24 25 000 ish, which does show up in many times um and then, of course this is valid and actually we just got another five Day, closure here, uh and the number has moved down significantly, so i would potentially call you know lows in or at least a major corrective rally if we do see price action pop above this specific level, 38 700 in the next period, and that number will naturally Come down as we close into the period after that, but for right now you know correcting heavily there uh so pressure.

What im trying to say is that pressure remains down and those targets are still, in my opinion, or at least cystically speaking, valid and worthwhile to be aware of uh. As long as this condition is met over here, so the number has significantly moved down, but still not out of the way, so i think thats a good place to leave off on this particular video. I want to wish you well stay safe within this market. Theres! No need to necessarily be a hero, even if you do think that this is the ultimate macro low for forever and its never going lower ever again uh. You know its very, very likely to spend a bit of time going sideways there so uh, so i think ill leave it right there. I want to wish.

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