Why are markets continuing to sell off? I know a lot of people have been calling for all time highs or new highs in traditional markets and in crypto, and several people said that we already found a bottom last week week before so whats going on. So until the fed changes direction and pivots, the markets are not going to reverse theyre, going to continue to find a bottom back to their pre pandemic lows before the fed got into the game. Neil kashkari spoke today, other fed members are speaking and he said we are not going to rescue the markets. We dont look at the markets were not concerned about the markets and he said that markets basically need to revert back to their pre pandemic level. So if you look at the s p, the dow, the nasdaq crypto all of crypto – and you look at the levels that the markets were at before the pandemic of the march lows of 2020 thats, where the markets need to get back to where more of a Fair value pricing, you could argue that you know the markets were still a little overheated at that time, but that is kind of the goal of the fed is to get the markets back to that level. Weve been looking at that on the charts, and that is going to represent around a 30 35 percent drop in all markets. To get to that point, the fed is not going to jump in and rescue any of the markets unless we get into a serious serious market crash situation where youre down about 50 or more like we were in march 20, uh march of 2020.

So until the fed eases off the pedal and reverses course youre not going to see any new new, all time highs really in any assets, not in real estate, not in stocks not in crypto and the crypto markets are continuing to drop uh. As i am recording this video today about three oclock eastern standard time and again, the key is to watch the momentum into the close for traditional markets. Uh to gauge investor sentiment same thing with crypto crypto markets are in lockstep because they are risk assets and theres. A lot of different things going on in the markets right now, so the 29 thousand 000 major structural support for bitcoin is going to be tested. It looks like price has gone down to about 30 000 here today, and a lot of the all coins are down. Uh another 20, you know percent or more from where they were a couple of weeks ago when they were already down 70 or 80 percent. So the things that you know ive been talking about for the last couple of months here and really since the end of last year, beginning of this year, was that the markets peaked back in november december of 2021 and we were in a deleveraging and repricing situation. Because of all of the global macro economic events and environment that were in right now, which are higher interest rates, the fed, removing and reducing the balance sheet, ending quantitative easing going into quantitative tightening the war in ukraine, uh inflation and all of those things and inflation And high interest rates are the biggest thing that are having effects on future and forward earnings for companies which are really affecting stocks.

Cryptos are risk assets. The same investors in stocks are the same investors in crypto, so thats whats, going on in the whales have been manipulating the markets. As you can see, everything is kind of unwinding all at the same time. So these are the things weve been talking about for a while and a lot of the you know, bigger crypto influencers that were talking about new all time highs, and you know bull market and were still in a bull market and things like that. A lot of those people have never been through a bear. Market theyve never been through a uh global macro economic environment like were in now. This is a first really with you know. A lot of the things were facing right now, but weve been through several recessions. Several goal and bear markets over the last 20 25 years in real estate and stocks and everything else so markets dont always go up always and forever. You cant, you know, use the huddle strategy always and forever in perpetuity theres times to buy and theres times to sell, and you have to maximize your opportunity and having a five year or even a ten year outlook isnt, always the best strategy, because you theres no Guarantees that price is going to go anywhere so now. I think you can understand a lot of these crypto influencers just have never seen a higher interest rate environment theyve, never seen a non qe environment theyve, never seen a non free money, zero interest environment theyve seen bull market only.

So you really cant blame them. For that, but you have to qualify what theyre saying you have to incorporate a little risk management. You have to be aware of the downside, those same crypto influencers were saying: youll, never see 50, 000 again, youll, never see 40, 000 again. Uh youll never see. 30. 000 again – and here we are, and its only been a few months were only in the first part of may of 2022 and nobody a lot of those influencers. Never thought wed be here again because of the on chain analytics and the fundamentals of bitcoin and crypto. So the fundamentals are good theres, a lot of adoption theres a lot of use case and they are good assets for the long term and the on chain always looks bullish. So you have to qualify all that, because the whales and institutional investors and large investors can manipulate all that data and that stuff, at the end of the day, doesnt matter when youre looking at a risk asset, because the same people that are driving the market, um Environment and the moves in the market are the same people in stocks that are the same people in crypto, so its all kind of tied together from the type of risk assets that were talking about. So you got to be real, careful and qualify that information from you know a lot of these influencers who are saying price can never go below a certain level or that it can never go above a certain level or that it will definitely hit a certain level Or will definitely you know top or bottom? What we do know is that recently price was uh during the march 2020 pandemic in a big market crash, bitcoin went down to you, know forty five hundred dollars and it went up to sixty nine thousand.

So that is our range. Those are two areas that we know bitcoin has gone to and can go to again beyond each one of those levels would be a new situation that you have to be prepared for and be on. The lookout for so right now were in a downtrend were in a deleveraging moment. We should get a little bounce here, but you know we may get more continuation to the downside depending on you know the economic environment right now, its risk off a lot of technical selling, going on a lot of margin, calls going on things like that. So until that settles out were not going to find a bottom and really were not going to see a bull market, we can find a bottom rebound and kind of crawl along sideways to sideways up in traditional markets in crypto for a while, but youre not going To see bull market on like weve seen over the last, you know a couple of years and really over the last 10 years without the fed being involved, because the economy with inflation is unwinding and going into recession. So those are the things that keep the market from going and uh the minute the fed pivots. You can count on bull market back on so thats going to be your all in moment and signal when that happens, uh and then well just have to watch. We should get some nice bounces in traditional markets as well as crypto along the way, hopefully well see a turnaround tuesday tomorrow and get a nice little bounce.

I wouldnt make any moves based on that, because we are still in a very uh, tricky risk off environment. Right now, so until we hit some of these bottom areas and consolidate for a little bit, you cant really count on a reversal. So these are the things that im looking at the markets are uh very risky right now, its its a risk off market. You got to put risk management in play. In other words, you got to look at whats the worst case scenario down whats the best case scenario up which side of that bet are you willing to take and whats? You know, whats the worst case scenario. If you lose and the biggest thing you dont want to be, you dont want to be without dry powder when markets do rebound and the fed does pivot because thats, when its going to be time to get in and make generational wealth and really life changing money.