I hope the sound is working well see. I should be live but um anyway. Thank you all for being here. These market conditions are brutal and im going to dig into part of what i see out there and i have no audio whoops hold on a second. There is. Where is my sound there? We are testing one two three well, hopefully, hopefully i guess audios good good. I wasnt sure its uh okay, keep going, keep going so sorry, everybody very stressful day, very uh, disturbing day sickening day, sick stomach all day, worried about it right. There were gon na talk about where we believe we are right now and what has technically potentially caused the crash, or at least added to it. So first of all, this is capitulation were seeing that in all markets, everythings been sold. Some things are getting no bids. Everythings crashing down and its just a really really tough day. So, hang tough, so lets talk about the hard day. Real, quick, the s p 500 is under 4. 000. 4 000 was a critical support level we broke through that uh. The c19 lockdowns in china are fueling. Inflation fears were hoping for a print around eight instead of eight and a half on the may 11th, which is wednesday morning at 5, 30 a.m. Pacific watching that number carefully ill be up and fingers crossed its good. If its, not good markets could tank further now the two and 30 year rates gap or widening is not good.

Ukraine tensions are rising, not good and were going to talk most about the ust losing the peg rattling crypto markets today and bitcoin, actually just bitcoin hit 30 300 again, which is a 10 month low. We are about 13 1500 away from the july low as well and microstrategy smashed down 75 points that hurt me today was a big money losing day, so everybody out there is hurting so lets talk about uh bitcoin exchange inflow. This uh got a lot of attention today. Bitcoin exchange got hit with the biggest inflow since january 2022, nearly 80 million worth but theres a lot more apparently about 80 000 bitcoin hit gemini as well to be sold from the lfg. The luna foundation guard. Well, talk more about that as well and what how its impacting the market so first of all, luna lfg dumpage! You can see clearly here on last note again and the big thank you to sanjay for sharing this with me. The balance is tanking and well dig more into exactly what that means and the wallet address this is the actual live wallet was heavily drained. They had as much as 70 000 bitcoin in this wallet and they had 80 000 bitcoin in total and now thats gone down to about 28 200. As you can see here, so a huge amount of what they had as a reserve to stabilize the peg has been depleted to help preserve the peg now lets look at the lfg reserves.

This is, as of yesterday, the lfg foundation, which is there to support luna. Had about 2.84 billion dollars in it and now its got a lot less. I estimate about 1.2 billion 1.3 billion left because theyve already spent over 1.5 billion to try to stabilize this thing and even as im talking right now, the the peg is gone again. Bitcoins heading towards 30 000.. So this is not a good situation. Now lets talk about dokwan hes, trying to hes tensions, and he said: hey, steady lads, everythings, okay, everythings under control, but i dont think so. He has deployed the lg bitcoin reserves. Liquidity is going to be used to borrow against ust to defend the peg. Now lets. Look at some of the problems behind the scenes. Curve pool weve heard a lot about curve pool over the last couple months, and obviously it has too much ust. As you can see here in this graph from m hunt, casalo hope i said that right now, all the trade on the other side of this is being run down, and there is not enough liquidity and people are taking a bath to get out, which means they Are selling at 90 cents in the dollar 85 cents in the dollar? Last time i checked right now live, and this is this is kind of both terrifying and fascinating, if thats even possible, but you can just see here. The luna is tanking as we speak, its lost the peg and now its just dropping down.

It is 70 cents on the dollar. Everybodys bailing and well talk more about exactly how much. So when you look at the ust usdc pool it, the liquidity is extremely low, and this was when we put this together, you can see the rate of time is 0.895, but 8.8915 now its 0.70. Just in the space of an hour, it is crashed now the curve pool ust ustc again only a million dollars in exit liquidity and people are getting. People are just desperate to get out right now, but can this get worse? Lets have a quick look um again. Another old chart its already out of date. It fell as low as 82, now, its 70 cents. Now, even if you just take this alone and you look at 18 billion usts out there times – 18 cents, thats 3.2 billion, now its 18 billion times 30 cents. That is over five billion dollars gone at this rate. Um, the three billion in the lfg reserve is not enough to support and stabilize the peg, unfortunately thats, not good. Now, interestingly, again, this is probably out of date. Right now i know luna hit 30. um luna right now is trading at 27. uh um, so the loss is way in excess of that and anchor protocol loss is down around the same percentage as well. So you can see here they are both tied and in sync. Nothing but terrible bad news were seeing cascading liquidations happening now.

Lets look at some of the smart contract platforms. Again, this chart is an hour old and its different, but the biggest loser of the day is tara and its only just begun. Now its trading at 30 bucks instead of 45, so slow as another big chunk, um ethereum is holding up the best of all the smart contract platforms out there and other ones that are hit hard. They were phantom down polka dot down cardano down all down. 16, 18, etc. So it has been just a nasty day really bad and things are happening really fast. So the good thing about these things when they do happen fast, is the pain, is short lived, but lets talk a bit more, so first of all whats happening. So lfg is forced to sell bitcoin to collateralize ust. One week ago the anchor protocol had 20 billion in it. Now it has 8 billion. It probably has about 6 billion now and 12 billion drained in a week is a massive amount of cell pressure, and this selling pressure on ust is also bringing about selling pressure on luna, and we always knew that the 20 api was never sustainable. But i was optimistic that at least putting 10 billion dollars in bitcoin as a bitcoin, backed algorithmic, stable coin would be successful. They never got a chance to get above 3 billion, so it never came to fruition. We always knew anchor was a ponzi anyway. So here we are so anchor just a reflection of how much its drained 31 in the last 24 hours alone.

I think it was up to 14 billion just 24 hours ago now, its 8 billion and its probably again even less, because this thing is unraveling. So fast before our very eyes, this is another snapshot of the balance. You can see here, 28 000 bitcoin remaining, and i know that they pumped 70 000 bitcoin or at least 50 000 onto gemini to sell – and this is whats really crushing. Uh bitcoin, i did say yesterday that 32 000 was a level that many big people with big money were gon na, come in and buy, but now with all the markets, unraveling theyre, probably sitting back and holding also the selling pressure of forty thousand fifty thousand bitcoin Hitting the market all at once on a very weak day, is catastrophic for the markets, but its not over. If you look at additional pain possible, these are the loan liquidations with the different liquidation prices and how much are there? These are already hitting right now and again, billions will be liquidated at fire sale prices in a very short window of time and thats. What were seeing happening right now, very sad, so quick conclusion to what weve talked about here is, first of all, all algorithmic stable coins lose their pegs at one stage or another and when they are needed, the most like a market condition like now, they tend to Fail theyre putting the most pressure and they show a lack of stability and once the peg is lost, it starts a cascading effect and layer on the complexity of anchor and that being drained as well.

There is a massive liquidity scramble going on and all we can do is watch this in real time. Just you know. I hope people didnt have very very high allocations. I know people like ryan from crypto banter. He says 80 luna, but he got in a very low price but im sure hes trying to take whatever he can off the table right now, um. So with that remember, luna did not cause the bitcoin crash, but it definitely added a ton of fuel to the sell off as were out there lets talk about a couple of other things. Final part is, tattoos, are permanent, luna may not be so luna you can. Its just one of those things that they just the wheels are coming off and it could not happen at a worse time and the level of liquidation thats going to hit is extreme. So lets talk about a few other pieces of news as well. Lets talk about bottoms, we have the anchorman here, so this was interesting from the rational route and a big thank you to dr emrani and not dr dr emrani. This time said this, and this is a cycle comparison from previous all time highs until bear market lows. Now i always try identify some positivity here and per the rational root. He believes we its not the upside we hoped for but looks very close to a bottom to the rational root. As i said now, what i see in this is one well clearly: weve had no blow off top number two.

We have a more mature product, bitcoin three theres, far less volatility, even though today you would argue that and number four much longer cycles, and i added some rings here. The two rings at the top are kind of indicating the 2017 cycle, and you can see the bottom to the next bottom again after a long period of time and this cycle, although we never reached a blow off top, you can see in july 2021, we hit 29, 000, 28, 800 to be precise and in 2022, were here right now banging on the door of that summer low. So the question is: will this become support? Will this 29k level become support? Even as i look at it now, the ust just hit 68 cents. People are liquidating as quick as they possibly can, which is really bad. Bitcoin is about to hit 30 000 flat and then well see if the big money comes in, i didnt see people coming in normally when we hit certain levels you see people coming in and buying. Nobody is buying right now in big volume. So lets talk about somebody who is buying, though naive buchelli. He did buy the dip. He bought 500 coins at an average of 30 700 and he seems happy about that. So there are some people buying, but not everybody and in other news as well galaxy digital. They did report a 112 million dollar quarter loss uh trading volumes on the platform have dropped 30 compared to the previous cycle.

Despite the onboarding of about 50 new enterprise counterparties and the they also earned uh, i think 10 million dollars of mining revenue for the first time ever, but the stock fell 30. Today, under trade under trading pressure, its under 10 bucks, it hasnt been this low. Since i first covered galaxy – and that was in about 14 13 months ago in my galaxy video that i had mike novogratz – actually check the content for by the way this is mike novogratzs arm so hes, a big lunatic, big luna fan so well see if it Survives but uh its looking very risky now so anyway. Um lets talk about a little bit of tesla versus rivian news very quickly. This is the relative chart again everythings getting quiet today, but rivian their ipo lock up was unlocked and riven fell. 25 tesla fell down in sympathy because its also an ev maker fell 9, so were getting to a very juicy price for tesla. Very close to 750 750 to 850 was always a good place to enter, but in this market id err towards the side of 750. Before deploying capital, not financial advice, of course, and final piece of note again big. Thank you to sanjay for sharing this. This is per liz, ann saunders, and it is the consumer credit in the united states and how its ballooned, in march, to a record level of 53 billion dollars, i think versus 25 billion not too long ago.

Now. This revolving credit includes things like credit cards, car loans, school loans, etc, and it has exploded now with an increasing interest rate environment. This makes the whole world we live in far more unstable everybody, so we could have another financial crisis on our hands. Based on these types of charts and increasing interest rates – and the fed is well aware of that right now and thats why they completely emphasized again this week that 75 basis points is off the table. I do believe theyll do another 50 – maybe another 50 after that, but probably not at this stage, because everything is unraveling and if they jack up the rates by 100 basis points its only one percent, ladies and gentlemen, but its enough to throw us into financial armageddon And they realize that better than anybody else. So with that everybody hang tough, hang tight um.

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