MUST SEE DATA? COULD BTC DROP TO $23K? CRYPTO MARKET ANALYSIS & UPDATE
The like button, i really do appreciate that if you happen to be new to the channel, then why not go ahead and subscribe tap the bell select all notifications, and in doing so you will be kept up to date with everything that we do here at cheeky. Crypto, if you have not yet joined us in discord, links in the description down below its a fantastic community, talking crypto 24 7. uh, its completely free and i dont think youll – be disappointed by what you find down there. So why not go ahead and check it out if youre looking for a little bit more from the crypto space, everything from you know bear market strategies through to project reviews and trading. Why not go ahead and check out the patreon services as well in the description below okay lets get into this okay, so bitcoin paired up with usdt uh, one of the bigger trading pairs, and obviously this is the hourly chart and binance is the data source. So i want to kind of just talk through this pattern. Ive obviously cleared off a lot of the the noise thats on here. Just so, we can kind of talk through whats been going on. In fact, i might as well clear off these as well um, so we can make it a little bit cleaner, essentially, weve actually pulled down to this low point of twenty nine thousand seven hundred. I think it was uh twenty nine, twenty, nine thousand, seven hundred and thirty according to binance okay, so we have that low.
Then we bounced up again now we were expecting a bounce for a couple of reasons. Basically were just so heavily oversold. You had to have some kind of relief bounce upwards, and but i still expect us to pull on down a little bit lower, okay and theres lots of different ways. We can kind of look at this. You know and im going to go through some of those in a moment, so um this whole entire pattern here has actually now started to do something really really interesting, and so what were going to do is were just going to start things off with that. Okay, so were going to start on. This hourly chart then well progress on from there. So we have this low point and we have this high point here: okay and we can do a fibonacci retracement tool from this low to that high, and what we can do is to move this over to our bounce point, which is just up here, and this Bounce is actually 42 981. Okay, we can see. Then we pull back down. Okay and uh. We actually have pulled back down very significantly. The one to one ratio here was at thirty four thousand dollars. This is why i had been talking about thirty four thousand dollars for quite a while um, and you can see here that the seven eight six was thirty six thousand dollars another stopping point for us. You can also see how its resonating, incredibly well, with the 88.
2 bouncing around a little bit and but essentially, we have pulled back quite significantly past the 1.236 past, the 1.382, all the way down to 1.618 and we bounce from there just a little after that. 1.618 point: okay: we just moved up now. This is actually already important, because essentially what this means is that this structure here is a giant wave one uh, this being a wave two, and this now being a wave three okay. Now it is possible that this is still just a b and c, however, its more likely that we have some kind of bounce up and then some kind of final pull back down taking us lower. Okay, now with this bounce, it could also have happened, but i would expect maybe something a little bit more drawn out than what weve already had so ill go through that in a moment, and but essentially we are looking coming down a little bit lower. Now ive got marked out here, 28 805, and because that is the previous low from june. I think it is june yeah june 2021, okay. So this is the point that were looking for a double bottom, for those who were unfamiliar double bottom essentially is a bit of a ball signal um. If you can get those kind of things or triple bottom, in the same way that you have double tops. Being a bad signal and a triple top being a bare signal: okay, so were hoping for a double bottom around 28k.
However, it is possible that we come down even lower than this okay, so we want to be very open minded to where these discounts are going and uh. What would actually come afterwards? Okay, so just keep that in mind. Um so essentially were going to focus in now. Let me just remove the fear, because we, the only reason we have, that is to measure out that this is in fact a third wave okay. So what were going to do is were going to take a look at this. Okay were going to see this bounce right here and we moved up. We pulled back, we moved up now we want to do. Is we want to understand this particular area and whether or not theres anything special about it or uh? You know we are just its just a regular bounce, its that kind of degree so were going to do a fib again were going to measure it from the high to the low and then were also going to move it over im just going to move it To the side here, just on the low point of this wick, so as i was moving this around, you can see that we are right there on the low point, okay, and so that then actually looks like we just come out to the one to one. A little bit shorter 1.236 and we could be potentially looking at some kind of pull back down and maybe another surge upwards.
So the thing that i would look for here, specifically with our fourth wave corrective move, is that this is some kind of a well look for some kind of b, and then we look for some kind of c moving up to that kind of effect. Now, when we take a look at the stochastic on the hourly, we can see that were now. Overbought weve basically moved that small amount of percentage points after dropping down to the oversold area in a really significant way. The four hourly chart has actually just got a little bit of progression here, so you know we can see this thing progress up a little bit after a little bit of a pullback thats, okay, the eight hourly theyll, see started to move up quite a bit as Well, um, without actually doing too much in the way of price movement, so thats, never a good sign and the same for the hourly there and the weekly still has to progress down a little bit more. This is an indication to me that we are likely to pull back down ever so slightly lower on the macro scale, so essentially, im thinking over the next few hours were probably going to see some kind of pullback then were going to come up again and probably By the end of the day, and then i think from there well talk about you know, moving back down, and now, if this is the case, were going to go through some typical kind of stuff, this is getting a little bit of guesswork.
But well, if we assumed a 50 retracement um on this, then that will put our b wave at about here and if we assume a one one to one ratio from our b at to our c wave, then that means that were probably going to be looking At about thirty four thousand dollars at the higher point here, and but as again, you know if we actually take a look at the chart and we think about the support and resistance lines uh. We could, of course, be looking a little bit higher around the 36 000 and, if were really lucky to get past, both 34 and 36 resistance, and then, of course, we can be talking about 37 and a half k. I think moving past 37 and a half k is incredibly unlikely um, specifically because of the amount of resistance thats going to be found in that area, and so essentially id be thinking. Yeah lets just focus on 34k for now um and see if that gets the reversal. If we go to be able to get through there then 36 and then of course, 37 and a half from there. If that is the case, though, let me just go ahead and remove that fear, because we dont need it uh. We always. I think that this is exactly what its going to play out just a little bit of guesswork there and then essentially outside that would mark the end of our fourth wave, which means our fifth wave would have the potential to come down to our twenty eight thousand Dollar range on the one point, two three six uh, which would be the higher end of the spectrum.
We could, of course, come down a little bit lower and that would actually mark our fifth wave down here anywhere between twenty seven thousand two hundred and twenty. Eight thousand seven hundred or twenty eight twenty eight thousand eight hundred right uh so essentially were right inside that sweet spot, and it really depends on how high this fourth wave goes as to how low our fifth wave is likely to go next. Okay, so essentially thats kind of what im looking for im, hoping for the 1.236 here and no higher than 34k on the bounce um, as that would actually tie and tidy up a nice double bottom. And then we can kind of maybe take it from there to the upside now uh. With all that being said, though, there was something that were talking about a little while ago. Let me actually just tidy up some of that um and ill come up into our daily for this one, and that was essentially uh, and do i yeah remove that 40 pull back there as well. What this is is a larger move to the downside. Okay. Now this particular kind of pattern would basically be taking all of this as a corrective play, and so all the way from up here all the way to the downside. Now the structure that id like to keep i spoke about this before would be that we did not lose our twenty eight thousand eight hundred dollar low okay, because we have a five wave structure up here, one two, three: four and five.
I would ideally like to keep this above that a low point. Okay, and if we lose that, however, its not the end of the world, its just very frustrating more than anything else um. But on the corrective side of things and the the lowers that we could. The low points that we could potentially see here if we take this particular measurement right, so this pull back from 69 000 to the low of 32 900. We go ahead and move this over to the bounce that we got at 48 000. So you can see here that we could move down to a theoretical, 23 000 low, okay, and essentially that would be an entire large correction like this. Okay and you can see how that would play out. Okay, so thats kind of the thing that were looking for in a slightly more macro scale. That would actually mark the end of this complete uh corrective phase, and it will also stay above our previous all time high and would not fill the gap that had been left behind. That many people are calling for us to fill, and so weve got to bear in mind that that is also something that we need to consider and keep in the back of our heads that we could potentially be pulling back down. And but we should also acknowledge that any of these other areas, specifically something like the 702, which resonates incredibly well with bitcoin, could be the bottom here um.
So you know 702 786. Any of those are really important. Now the 702, coincidentally also comes in on a double bottom scenario: 28. 800. So we could potentially be looking at a 702 bounce and something that happens with bitcoin quite a bit if you just go ahead and just throw fibonacci retracement tools on various different areas. On the charts, youll see that the 702 seems to be a bit of resistance or a bit of support from time to time for btc and so its important that we kind of acknowledge that that 702 is also at the same area as our double bottom scenario. As well so really cool to kind of see that, but otherwise 786 is 28 out. 26 900 um or, as i said, 23 000 dollars, basically takes us down to the one to one ratio um, but lets go ahead and take a look at whats been going on from some glass node data. So yesterday we saw a significant jump in the inflows for btc. Now these inflows have gone up to a hundred and seventy thousand a hundred and seventy one thousand btc thats, quite a significant jump from where it was previously, where those inflows were about sixty six thousand btc, so uh on this note, its worth also indicating that we Cannot just take a look at the inflows without taking a look at the outflows, one has to go with the other. If we look at one in isolation, we dont get the full picture.
If we just looked at the inflows here, it would basically scare everyone to think that weve got so much bitcoin going on to the exchange as its being flooded and oh, my god were going down to zero right um. But when we take the outflows into consideration, we also get a good big spike to the upside here indicating to us that there is a serious amount of accumulation going on now yesterday. We also saw this particular outflow spike up to 118 000.. Now this is the first time for a little while that weve actually seen the outflow slightly lower than the inflows. This does mean that theres slightly more inflows into the exchanges than the outflows. However, the net position change when we consider all the different variables of bitcoin on the exchanges actually still shows that more bitcoin has left whether that is inter exchange, transfers, um or you know, other kind of factors here and with the internal wallets. Essentially, what were talking about when it comes to the net difference is actually still uh. More bitcoin has left the exchanges total. So, even though weve got slightly higher, inflows and weve got really high outflows, and when we take into consideration all of the uh wallets that are held by the exchanges, we actually see that the exchanges lost a little bit of bitcoin now its not too much. It has dropped down significantly its only 15 000 btc at this point, whereas the day before we were talking about 66, 000 btc, so a pretty significant reduction here, and i think that already comes down to this huge spike with the inflows of btc.
Now, obviously, we want to be taking a look. Whats been going on. Where did this bitcoin come from? Well go ahead and take a look at the wallets. I will take a look at the sharks at the moment. 100 btc. Well, they havent been selling theyve been accumulating, so we know its not those guys that have been adding bitcoin to the exchanges right. These sharks have been accumulating. This is something you can see massive uptake on, okay, so pretty much from february here, theyve accumulated. They continue to accumulate this huge pullback that we had yesterday has also led to more accumulation. Uh well take a look at the 1000 btc wallets. Now these guys have actually just put some onto the exchanges, so those huge inflows, i think, actually came from these guys again. This is actually a significant deduction um, but its not that bad. If we think about where we were previously 2120, we are now sat at 22′, so were still a significant amount. We havent seen a huge dump by these whales. If anything, i think this is scare tactics. Push the bitcoin onto exchanges make the whale alert everyone that bitcoins flooding to the exchanges and on reflection, all you actually end up seeing is uh, is basically the outflows of that as well. So i would imagine that, as this price is getting starting to get down a little bit lower as people continue to buy into the fear or sell into the fear uh.
Essentially, this is being mopped up with these outflows. I imagine the outflows are going to increase dramatically today, um, because you know this is only for one particular calendar day of the ninth and the price actually started to move back up again. Quite significantly um, you know in the early hours of the 10th. So when i get that data tomorrow, i imagine that these outflows are going to be really really significant and you know its going to be back on the back of, i think, a lot of short positions that are opening up and basically shorting the market. The second that we went down and that created the pocket of liquidity for these whales and institutions to basically accumulate more btc, so just want to keep an eye on guys. I dont want to kind of scare anyone with any kind of crazy numbers. If were in a bear market were approaching the bottom of the bear market. We are not approaching, we havent just started the. What i mean to say is we havent started the the bear market here we are and have been in a bear market for a while, and if we are to think of this as a bear market, then we are approaching the bottom of the bear market. Potentially around that 23 000 range right and so really bear in mind that now is not the time to be panic. Selling. Okay, now is the time to hoddle your bitcoin.
Now is the time to be and thinking about what you want to be investing in. Okay for that next search to the upside. The other thing i want to note here guys is this is a corrective pattern, its not a trend based pattern; okay, whereas if i were to zoom out a little bit – and you see this move up here this – this five wave structure is a trend. Okay, and so when we take stock of this position – and we think okay well thats a trend – what is this and what is this all right? These are two corrections of a trend, and we have one last push upwards before we actually go into a really big bear market. So just bear that in mind. What youve got right now is actually really tamid uh or tame and timid was the word. I was looking for there and basically, what were going to consider is what actually does a bear market feel like a bear market feels very much like the covert dump, although that wasnt the bear market, but that was a bear market low for many altcoins. Okay but thats what it usually feels like this is not what it feels like this is vastly different. But again you know history is there to to necessarily repeat itself but to change and adapt and to challenge us from time to time. So just bear in mind that you know. Essentially what were looking for here is: corrections were coming towards the bottom of those corrections.
Weve got data which shows sharks and whales have been accumulating. I imagine theyre going to continue to accumulate theres, going to be lots of noise about the inflows onto exchanges, um significant inflows. Yes, there were significant inflows to the exchanges, but they were met with significant outflows to the exchanges. Do not take them in isolation. You will be misled that way and do your own research make sure you uh understand the data your best you can and if not then join us in discord and ask me some questions ill, happily, answer them down there for you guys.