CRYPTO MARKET POSTMORTEM ! LUNA Crashed as UST Unpegged!! Markets In EXTREME Fear! What Now !?!
Explaining a lot of what went on yesterday, um from not only somebody that was trading yesterday, but also observing it from a number of aspects and the terror luna story with the ust getting de pegged actually played a significant role in everything that happened yesterday. Now you guys will know that we were expecting this on the channel for nearly a month now, weve been pulling up this long term, regression uh bitcoin bans, and we were actually looking at this taking place. This was a video from over two weeks ago that we released called danger ahead for cryptocurrency markets, and we were pinning out these levels and saying look where we are on this long term. Regression ban for bitcoin is very similar to where weve previously been um. In 2018 and prior to that 2014., and we were looking at the three day, we were looking at this death cross and we were saying things are playing out very well and we actually drew this level down here. Sort of 29k for you, which of course bitcoin ran so were going to be getting into it all in this video yesterday is a terrible day for many, but if you can understand markets and understand the bigger picture that markets bring with them. So in regards to crypto not just looking at the crypto space, but the kind of economic landscape and what that is supportive of or regressive of, then youll understand a lot of what happened yesterday, and this is a huge risk off environment.
We have a a tightening fed. The fed are looking to tighten uh their monetary policy. They are indeed doing it, and this is all before theyve even really got serious with it, and actually look to reduce the balance sheet and a number of other things, but theres also the huge terra luna story that were gon na get into in this video. This is gon na be a bit of a long one guys because weve just got so much to talk about. Like i say yesterday, we were short, your altcoins if youre following me on twitter, you know this was weve been short luna for nearly 11 days now. Expecting something far greater and we actually gave this call out by the way when luna was at 81. Ladies and gentlemen, lets take a look at where luna is today its currently set at 31 and actually ran uh 23.. We obviously cut the short a lot. We didnt even get down to 31. I think i closed my shorts around about 40 dollars. I was happy with that, certainly on a leveraged account um, but we were short, a load of all coins yesterday um and had been fought for a number of weeks. I mean we even called out near yesterday and a number of other altcoins that we were looking at. So if you guys arent already subscribed to my twitter, make sure you do that because youll get some more timely updates as things unfold.
But this is what were looking at. So what? What is the modus operandi moving forwards? Well, its still very risk off, i think markets having sold off like this. You are going to get a bounce, naturally youre at a key level of support for bitcoin, but ultimately, the the issue that youve got is: where does the relief come for from in these markets? The relief for me in markets across the board is when the fed pivots on their hawkishness and goes to a dovish market in an accommodating market. Again were not there yet so theres still, potentially significantly more downside to come, and what im watching when im? Looking for downside is your equity market. Ladies and gentlemen, this was, and this wasnt me pointing this out. It was pointed out by a man called francis hunt. The crypto sniper the market sniper weve had him on the channel a few times, hopefully going to be talking to him later. Today, um essentially called out this head and shoulders for the nasdaq and said that theres more downsides come and thats still in play. Whats going to happen to crypto, if that takes hold, we had um the luna foundation essentially have to sell and exit bitcoin yesterday, which actually led to this to try and steady their pegging of the ust. I mean its just insane. The the eu i mean ust, which is a stable coin, down seven percent, its lost its peck. I mean thats.
Why luna? The second we saw this? It just gave confluence to everything and technically it was already there. Ladies and gentlemen, and this is the importance of technical analysis – i understand the stigma that oh well, how can you know? Ta um predict the future it doesnt, but it gives you a probability of what way these markets are likely to go and the technicals are absolutely there and were before this capitulation event to suggest it was coming and, like i say, weve been giving people heads up About that on this channel for a while, whilst youve still had people posting and comparing charts from the 1900s to bitcoin currently and saying that you know were only going one way, theyve simply neglected the environment that were in and youve still got this death cross to Come so what so lets just get into straight away? What i actually think um is likely to come. I think youre gon na get a bounce here. Weve got the cpi data tomorrow. I got that wrong. It wasnt! Actually, today, if that comes in lower than prior inflation markets, may take that as relief and see a bounce, but my ultimate thesis on any kind of a bounce that you get and lets actually take the long term regression vans and dive into bitcoin a little bit. My ultimate thesis um is that okay, the bounce were already at a key level here, where youd expect to bounce, providing that this doesnt roll today and you close below it, and you fail to get above it.
That would signal more downside, but providing that this holds you know your markets may be in full, maybe a a return to sort of your 35k range um and then i think things get killed off. Excuse me, guys, um, i think things get killed off. I think any i think people are going to be looking to get out this market now the tone has been set and theres still, and we spoke about this sort of element of denial. You know that people are still sort of scratching their heads a bit and then actually you know consid. You know sort of still thinking that this market is just going to 180 in turn that isnt going to come unless the fed decide that thats the direction that theyre setting things um and again were watching the equity market lets take a look at total. Total still has quite a bit to go. In my opinion, this is the total market cap of all coins, excluding bitcoin. You know, i think these levels get hit on the total um youve not revisited your sort of may uh june and july lows, and i think that comes for all coins and i think thats largely supported by bitcoin and where it currently is some of the harshest Rallies you can get are actually in a downtrend, um and thats kind of what im looking at thats. Why? Right now my shorts got closed. Yesterday, im gon na sit on my hands.
I may pick up some sort of very small intraday trades today, um, which im not going to be sharing, because i dont think i think that thats, none of them are high probability plays at this point, given everything that weve ran um i mean we looked at Near yesterday was a big favorite of mine and its actually, i think near still got quite a bit to go um and, i think thats, the consensus across all all coins. Uh luna, im im stepping well away from this. I dont want any part in this at this point, because its just too volatile and hectic, and certainly if im, going to be leveraged trading this. This is something im going to see what the cpi reveal is and then play accordingly tempting to long. But given everything going on internally with them, its an absolute show guys um tera peg mechanism in doubt, as ust crashes to 67 cents. That is a bad look and i believe these guys actually had to get rid of some of their bitcoin in order to um. Actually, you know maintain the peg, so they were a huge cell pressure. This is crypto. I love crypto. Uh yesterday was one of the most exciting days, ive had in a long time guys. It was for me a very good day in terms of the positions that i had on my spot net long crypto position. It is what it is thats why we short the market to hedge that and actually make money in a downtrend.
My spot crypto positions here for the next five years. This market will come back but the time isnt yet, and what i want to talk to you guys about very quickly um. As a side note is im thinking about making a group, so i already have a discord and those of you that are in my discord and have actually been present for the sort of discussions that weve had um. We did point out a number of things like the yield curve and how we thought look. Youve got to apply caution to these markets, and this was you know. Over a month ago, we were sort of saying this on the discord in the in the group chat. Um im thinking about coming up with some sort of a membership um based group, so im going to make it as cheap as possible. You know: weve got a number of things that we want to do on the channel, such as a newsletter. I think a newsletter is going to be really beneficial for those people that cant watch youtube videos every day and that just want a hit of everything going on, and maybe some guide in terms of our thoughts on direction. Moving forward for that week and everything going on in the space, it would be good to get a newsletter out. That gives people a sharp hit of that at the start of the week that informs them about everything going on in the prior week and what were looking at moving forwards, and also i want to do group discussions where we have a chat once a week.
All of us, and also come up with some sort of a discord group where you know i can be sharing my thoughts on a day to day basis, and we may do that as a paid thing. Let me know in the comment section if thats something youd be interested in, maybe well do something like 10 a month or something for all access and well just keep it as that um and well try and build up a group moving forwards in the cryptocurrency market. Looking at this market daily, and not only that the big thing for me guys, i cant tell you the opportunities that are presenting themselves right now. It is my full intention when this market reaches the bottom and weve got buy zones for a lot of altcoins out there, that havent yet been um smashed into um. You know to to accumulate all coins at a significantly cheaper price. All coins that ive peer reviewed and actually done – and you know, used and been active in um to buy moving forwards for when this market does turn, because it will turn. However, the time isnt now um thats my general consensus – and this was just really a postmortem video – those of you that watch the channel daily youll know that youll know the story already. This is what we were watching and weve got it. My thesis at the moment is that im going to sit on my hands um, i dont want to be in trading this right now.
For me, none of it is high probability based just given how volatile everything is. We have some directional swing, trades that are still open, but theyre extremely light leverage, but in terms of capitalizing on any sort of a move i mean you know, answer this seriously now what what way do you think crypto or bitcoin is going currently it could go Either way we could see more relief to crypto or we could see further capitulation and its really dependent on this sort of um, 29 to 33k range and and what you do within this again, you start to come down and break below it. You know were looking for divergences below this level and actually above this one um, but right now, im sat on my hands and i think the cpi data is going to be extremely revealing thats tomorrow, not today, i did actually mistakenly thought it was on the 10th Ill have to double check that actually um but weve been giving you all these all coins to the downside, um and showing you look. This is whats happening guys. This is where we are wed actually compared, and this is a comparison that i dont really like giving because it kind of puts the fear of god into people. Is the nasdaq composite and are we entering more of the you know, 2008 or 2020 style market now? Given everything thats going on, because theres just so much risk to markets across the board, guys um well take a quick look.
Actually, whilst were here the ftse. I know i watch that daily, because ive got family members that are involved in it and i keep an eye on it for them. That saw a little bit of an uptick today, very common, that you get that after a sort of down leg. But ultimately, i think markets across the board are going down. You guys know we had david bell on. We spoke about apple and that being one of the key components to watch. If you want to know the direction for the stock market because it makes up a large part of it, nasdaq closed pretty much hard on the nose how these open and ive got any futures. Yeah ive got a smp 500 future here, thats seeing an uptick, but this is to be really expected. That doesnt mean that this doesnt do a 180 and close down today. If that happens, crypto is likely to see more downside. Quick look at the dollar its at this point. Weve called and i might still have the draw on here. Yes, i do uh, we weve called for the dollar going to 108. and people go. Oh, you know the dollar, you know. How can it do that its around a key level, its at a key level of resistance? Well, what youre failing to understand is what the dollar is pegged against its against the euro, its against the yen. That makes up the majority of the dollar peg uh in terms of what its pegged against and how it shows its strength.
So those currencies are in huge, huge, huge trouble with no end in sight for the trouble thats unleashed and thats before theyve. Even upped interest rates and started really putting this squeeze on everyone um the important thing is and as a trader you know i was getting pho mode into trades left right and center. Yesterday that i was actually very tightly killing, you kill a monster, whilst its small um, because our main trades were already set. We were set in motion to see this downside continuation really from here and certainly on the likes of luna. You know we were up here trading this guys. We were short here. Nearly a perfect entry, now theres an element of luck. There theres an element of bias, remember trades. It could have gone the other way um, but given everything going um on right now, high probability that that was going to happen not to this degree, i didnt expect this guys im, not a mine reader im, not a clairvoyant. You know. I had no idea that this was going to unfold the way that it did, but the technicals certainly supported a move to the downside, lunas in trouble. Um ethereum, i actually think, is held up very well. I mean it can consider compared to bitcoin. You know ethereums. Actually held very well and not actually ran its march lives, which is promising actually to me, but my thing with the altcoins is okay. Well, bitcoins have that spiller are all coins kind of in shock right now and ready to receive that, and i think youve got a lot of people looking for markets right now and i dont think markets have really seen the full level of pain that they need To in fact, i think i was tweeting about this the other day i lose subscribers by the way for talking here we are.
This is on the eighth day market sentiment isnt as low as it needs to go more off this likely to come over the coming months. Didnt even take that long, but we always got to be conservative as a um, as somebody who speaks publicly because the last thing i want to do is mislead people. You know the game has changed. You cant take 2021s mentality into 2022. thats, the kind of menta. We still got people calling for a blow off top right now. You know we were calling for a blacktop by the way im not gon na act like im holier than now, but we were calling for a bluff top into 2021. We didnt get that and then you readjust and and reallocate and – and you know, play the game accordingly. Theres no point marrying a bias is going to get you killed in this game and markets are ruthless. They dont care about you, they dont care about. You know what direction you think theyre going if theyre going a direction youre along for the ride, unfortunately, and the gate, the aim of this game is to basically um. You know be in front of those moves and thats what were trying to do on these channels and were getting a lot more serious. I feel, like my knowledge, as somebody involved in markets has grown tremendously over the past two years. Ive been in crypto for five years, but the last year really has been a huge learning curve and a lot of the guys that i followed lost all credibility um with me um now that doesnt mean that you know they cant gain it back.
But in terms of weve been saying, look this markets due for more downside videos are there up um and in actual fact, in the discord that i did ages ago and ive got people that kind of test. For that we were saying: look youve got to be cautious because these markets look like theyre going down, and that was months ago, um so yeah, so thats, really all i have for you in this one guys. You know dont panic. The opportunities are becoming almost right for the picking at this point a little bit more downside and, were you know, fomo him back into these markets, because crypto isnt going anywhere certain cryptos may not recover and and may have sort of ruined their chances at a top 10 crypto, you guys know that were into coins like ada, which i get a lot of stick for, but guess what guys? I think these guys have built a blockchain in the right way. I really do believe that i know people hate on them and all this stuff, but somebody who uses their ecosystem um whos followed the journey. You know. I think this is a a top 10 crypto for sure and in fact, top five. If you take out stable coins, in my opinion, so thats really all i have for you guys if you have enjoyed this content, a like is always appreciated. So as a comment, one thing to look out for is a little bit of knowledge here, is to look at what has sold off to what degree.
So you call it like ethereum thats, actually showing quite a bit of strength. In my opinion, in regard in the face of everything – yes, its tumbled, but its not you know tumbled to the degree even of bitcoin, but that me, and that kind of leads me to people – are awkward in shock right now, um so thats all weve got for You we are probably going to do a deep dive. Video, if you guys would like that on the lunar foundation, and let me know what you guys think about the group thing, the membership thing and, if thats something you guys would be interested in um. Ultimately, we do give a lot of information away free on youtube and thats. How i like it. You know we dont charge you guys for anything, but the group thing is just a way for me to um. You know at the end of the day, time is money for me. You know the the time im spending even right now, making these videos a time that im not plotting trades and plotting positions and trying to flip um and also you know doing my own research. My due diligence, you know theres a lot of stuff i can get on with him. You know theres not enough hours in the day for me, so for me to not only give over the time to write a comprehensive newsletter, thats going to be informative and give people everything they need to to kind of have an outlook on markets from the prior Week and the one coming, and also provide a service where you know we can sit together and we can talk and answer, questions and everything and look at markets together on on a weekly basis.
You know thats something that it would be nice. You know for some sort of appreciation for, but its just through for thought it doesnt have to happen. I want to know your thoughts in the comment section if thats something you join and and be a part of, even if i get three people doing it. You know for me its worth it, and it means i can really uh. Small groups are great because we can get into um a lot more of individuals, questions um, moving forward, so yeah, im, rambling on now guys thats, all ive got for you in this video. If you enjoyed this content like its always appreciated, so as a comment and ill catch, you all in the next youtube video thanks a lot for watching.