Stay Away From Luna! – This Crash Is No Fun!
It all looks nice and rosy at the beginning and then suddenly boom it all comes crashing down now. Do i think this can reverse? I dont think so i think the damage has been done. The brand is completely shattered. The trust is gone, theres no more time to waste, so lets jump right in hi. So this is the total value lock chart of terra luna doesnt. This have a lot of resemblance with this thing over here. The whole lunar ecosystem revolves around d5. It revolves around generating passive income, of course, with anchor being at the top, but theres also synthetic stocks, options on various assets, all kinds of interesting financial instruments, but the problem is all of this is based on ust and ust. Now is at 60 cents and its supposed to be at one us dollar now, theres a ton of people that speculate on this right now, a ton of people that do have short positions on this, its pretty hard to get all of this additional money into the System again to push this back to one us dollar, and so when this does not happen, then how much is it really worth to get like 18 per annum on something thats fluctuating like this right? The basis is really having a stable coin that is stable. Having the burning mechanism that works, that burns enough luna tokens per day to overcome something like this having enough of a treasury that could support this or in the final phase that we are currently in having at least some vcs or some other participants in the ecosystem.
That are willing to bet on this, but it looks like thats, not the case. Weve been deep packing so massively for such an extended period of time. It almost looked like a win right. We had our first crash yesterday then went all the way up to 94 cents, just in order to then again crash down approximately 12 hours ago, who, in their right mind would now buy the luna token all of the brand value. All of the trust it revolves around anchor, it revolves around having this stable, ust pack, and i understand the concept of buying low and selling high and now. Obviously this is not a high price, but the risk is simply massive. Now, historically, when we have seen such kind of a crash with teraluna, we have seen massive crashes before right, weve seen a 90 crash over here weve also seen in the summer of last year, an 83 percent crash. Also, there was some kind of a depending event, but it was way less pronounced and it resolves relatively quickly now. Terra luna is way larger in size and its way harder to get back again. When there is a reversal right, as we have seen in the past, then we still see a floor for an extended period this floor. Here after we had this crash, we still had a relatively low price level for almost two months, so why buy now directly into this crash? Even if the pack restores theres still going to be a lot of doubts right, a lot of money, thats currently still tied up cant exit.
Now the brand will only be attractive to people that look for high risk. High reward kind of place in the past. Terra luna and anchor was rather a risk off play or was perceived as such. So if the lunar ecosystem does have any future its not going to be the safe passive investor kind of people, its going to be the people that are already doing risky plays on avalanche or on phantom on any other layer, one competitor right. The unique selling point of terra luna of anchor it is gone with this event. Now the 20 per annum dont look as attractive anymore. When you get these kinds of crashes you now in order to get again more capital flowing into the system, you now have to incentivize people more. You cant get away anymore with 18 or 19 percent per annum, so the whole nature of ust and off terra luna. If it has any future at all, its gon na be very, very different to how it was in the last months. So if youre asking, should you now sell your luna? Should you now sell your ust? It depends on your risk, tolerance, of course, because the risk profile has simply shifted that massively and when you look at the portfolio composition right as in the idea of having a balanced weight of different assets, you want to have the smallest exposure to the riskiest position, Because the idea is when theres high risk theres also high reward, so given that luna now has crashed that much given.
Now that the risk has elevated, you should account for that risk right. You shouldnt have the same proportion of luna or of ust in your wallet today, as you had in the past, which of course isnt that hard, given that weve already come down quite a bit, luna has fallen in the last week by 90 percent and the remaining Money thats left: is this really just the diamond hands that are so convinced of luna, or is this actually simply capital thats locked up? I think the former is more likely the people that havent sold, yet they simply havent been able to sell yet now heres. What i think, if you dont yet have any kind of exposure to luna or 2ust and youre now considering, should i actually buy this? Should i maybe do this high risk high reward play then i think its best to look at a potential turnaround and what i think is probably easier to turn around is the ust pack than the lunar price. Luna is the risk on play right? Luna? Is the asset that has always been fluctuating and the lunar ecosystem is dependent on ust now without ust? There is no real use case for lunar. There is no real use case for the lunar blockchain, its all d5. So what i would do, if youre considering to catch this falling knife, i would look for the floor. I would wait for a week or so for the price to stop falling, and during that time i would also look for the ust pack to recover.
I think when the ust pack recovers, which im not saying it will right, but if there is some point in the future, where we see again ust equals one us dollar, then at that moment in time i dont think that luna will have already recovered. So at that point in time, theres still the opportunity to buy for a reversal, so theres no real rush to jump into this with each passing day where ust is not at one dollar, the brand of terra luna continues to decline. The trust continues to break people. Continue to exit the system, so this is really a race against time and i think theres no need to be the exit liquidity for the people that are currently trapped rather wait until we see some kind of light at the end of the tunnel. A buying fear is all nice and good, but if you dont have a thesis why this should turn around if youre simply just buying, because now its low then thats. What i think is simply just gambling. What i would consider light at the end of a tunnel is a restoration of the ust pack thats when one might consider getting into luna again until this has happened. I personally hold off. I dont touch it. This is a burning house and theres, not enough water. To stop the fire, we are currently discussing this situation in the telegram group, so in case youre not yet part of the bitcoin strategy, telegram group simply search for bitcoin strategy channel within the telegram app.
We are currently around 2000 people over there. I publish videos on this channel regularly, so dont forget to subscribe as well. Last but not least, if youre interested in a back test of how to trade the lunar token of what historically worked the best, then dont forget to check out this video over there theres a lot of value there as well.