Bitcoin CRASH & Where To Expect A Macro Bottom For Price
Perhaps the big old move. The grand finale of this and todays focus for this video is going to be specifically on the macro. Where, essentially, am i looking for for some bottoming action, or at least what do these statistics and probabilities suggest are good place to be looking for so thats gon na be the pure focus of today we might address. You know potential bounce situations on some of the higher term timeframes, but ultimately i really want this to kind of stand, the test of time and, of course, because we are coming at this um from the 12th day of may. I do want to say that, while the charts do essentially suggest some very clear and obvious statistics and probabilities about where to kind of be looking for, for the current time of being that doesnt mean that things cant evolve over time after these sort of targets are Very likely met so with that in mind, um lets get into it right now. I should also humbly request that if you do find this content valuable, if you just want to give back in a nice and free way, the best way to do that is simply just like the video you can always dislike the video at the end. If you happen to just really dislike it, anyways lets jump into it right now, and i want to start it off here with the log curve chart, because something of great interest is happening right now.
We are testing the long term log bottom of this growth channel. Essentially, and the reason why this is very significant is because theres really only been one of the time that weve actually even seen wicks below that region in bitcoins history. So it would suggest that we are obviously meeting extremes right now, which i think is very obvious. Right were not just seeing extremes on bitcoin, but were seeing extremes in the world market with, of course, the whole the whole the whole uh monetary uh policy situation changed around and in this case right here we are already down around the bottom end of this. Now, of course, we can see major wicks below, in fact, even in march of 2020, we did see a wick that was below that lower end level of you know more than 30, which is significant. Obviously, in fact, if we were to take the same sort of deviation from this current one, just kind of being aware of what is possible here, that would put bitcoin into the upper teens actually now im, not saying that that is uh. The most likely thing to happen from right here, but that is about the lowest price target that i can get reasonably based off of historical relevancy for right now. I do think that things likely try for a bottom a little bit higher than that again. Doesnt mean that things cant redistribute from over there, but it would likely take some time.
I dont think this would all happen in, like you know, one day, for example or one week, although timing, not necessarily my forte, but ultimately you know long term on this log curve growth chart. We do see that this area is an area of hot interest as its going to show up many other times, as that number is uh, technically speaking, pretty much where were at right now. Actually now i do think that things very likely do go a bit lower, but ultimately this is a particular interest right here on a closing basis on a closing basis. That is, you can really see that weve never had any open enclosures below that bottom end. On the lowest side of that uh of that growth channel anyways in this case lets now take it one step further. I want to bring us back to this chart over here, and i want to put us onto a bi weekly time frame, speaking about the deviations that we do see from the green moving average, which is a green 55 exponential moon average, which we essentially look for. You know in terms of very violent and extreme price action and as youll likely see in the past, weve seen you know a pretty um. You know pretty standard deviation from that level. If we actually measure these out um consistent over the past. Well, full history of bitcoin. In this case we saw this first deviation coming in back from 2014 that one led down for about 50 over the course the next 28 days from the actual break of it to the next major macro low.
In this case, again, things did even retest that region a few times later over the next four to six months and, and it did take four to six months for really bitcoin to kind of work. Its way out of that um, you know out of that re accumulation zone, but ultimately that was of significant interest right there same thing in two that or very close to what we saw in 2018 right here as well, a little bit less as we do expect. The deviations over time to be less and less on a maturing asset, and in this case it was about five percent less than about 46 right here again about 28 days from the break to the next major macro low. Again, it took about three months from from there to bitcoin, to re, accumulate and put in a nice rally, and then again we saw the same thing in of course, march 2020.. This one happened pretty much all in the same go. You know you could say that it took about 14 days from the break to the actual low thats, a its a little bit of a nuance right there and again a little bit lower on that as well. Being a that that it was rather uh close in time, proximity to the uh, 2018 2019 low right here, but again about 45, and so we could kind of make a nice relationship between all of these and said that hey over time, you know likely to reduce And where that put bitcoin at right here again, this is going to be one of my lower ends that id kind of be looking for on a closing base on a closing basis.
Very specifically – and that would suggest you know lets say like 40 kind of measuring this one out – that would be about low twenty thousand dollar territory, so between about nineteen to twenty one thousand dollars on the most extreme wicks, its kind of where i would be looking For at minimum for a nice bounce, obviously that is bitcoins prior all time high from the 2017 cycle and you know likely to bounce around there, not necessarily i wouldnt just blindly call this has to be the macro low, but you know extremely likely high extremely high Probability to balance it, you know at minimum um anyways, taking this a couple steps further now lets move on into my favorite chart the chart the one chart to rule them all the one chart to find them the one chart to bind them and in the darkness, Grind them doesnt even make sense, doesnt matter, man, anyways uh. This is the five day chart. The five day. Volatility versus momentum chart this ones still going. This one has been uh, perhaps the most important chart, alongside the daily volatility versus momentum, chart that we are looking at for the past couple weeks that ones already played out, and now we have this one to look forward to anyways to explain this were looking at The bbwp indicator – this is a volatility based indicator and basically and puts it into a percentile format. As i get a bunch of alerts over here, what the um anyway anyways before i so rudely interrupted by myself um, we do see that anytime, it is in the teen digit percentiles the expansion phase from those extreme lows over the past couple years.
And yes, we can go even further back than this has led to an average move of about 45. I would argue, however, that, because this current iteration started in march april, has been on these lows for longer than all of these past ones, we probably do expect on the upper end of that average, which has seen even almost up to about 50, or i guess The biggest one was yeah, almost 50 uh – that was your dumbola party from nearly a year ago in may of last year, anyways in this case right here. We have also used the five days to cast moment to get the correct direction on this. Its actually been perfect over the past couple years. Again, you can backtest this even further than that its not always going to be perfect, but not only do we have a trendline regression test on or in rejection on this on this particular take over here, which is where we really start to get very bearish on This price action um we do see that downside pressure is going to resume as long as bitcoins below 37 thousand dollars so intel until we do see the five day start to close above the stochastic momentum pivot. I would not feel comfortable at all whatsoever coin. Any certainly no macro lows, but even just like a nice higher term timeframe bounce, you know a big bounce, probably like 10 or more, if i guess, but ultimately that number will very naturally move down significantly uh on the next closure and the closure.
After that, i imagine as well, but for right now you know its back in the bearish control zone and uh unlikely to flip anytime soon as far as im concerned, and because we do have an average move of about 45 and again. I do kind of expect this to be a little bit more on the upper end of that um. You know we can look at the expansion point over here, thats, the green vertical bar, and if we were to measure that out about 45 that puts bitcoin about 24 000 bucks. I do want to redo this just to see what it would look like if we were to. You know, move closer to 50 or i guess i could just do mental math, but that would put bitcoin at the low 20 000 territory so again uh. You know just bitcoin wicked down to like 20 to 21 000 bucks and then maybe close somewhere in the mid 20s definitely possible. But ultimately these are zones on the macro scale that im kind of looking at as light at least very, very likely bounce regions um. If bitcoin starts to fail those – and you know you got bigger problems than really anything else as far as im concerned, um anyways with that in mind, lets now move it on to the next chart over here. This is the secondary chart. Another chart that weve been uh hammering on for a while. Now ever since we got the monthly macd cross, the downside.
There are three components of this chart: the monthly macd, the monthly pmar, although less important, and then the monthly 20 simple. This is the first part that kind of allows the other ones to be initiated if you will and any time that we have seen the monthly macd across the downside, well theres been a very consistent response on price action. Ive highlighted these three areas over the course of bitcoins full history with these green vertical bars. Right here, obviously were working on number four right now and in this case that combined with the pmerp losing the moving average, although that happened like a long long time ago. So that ship has sailed, but the next piece is rather important for the timing of this, and that would be after the monthly macd crossed the downside, when bitcoin closes its next monthly below that white moving average, which is a 20 simple moving average that essentially catalyzes The move, historically speaking, all the way down at minimum to the green 55 exponential. Yes, weve seen plenty of looks lower, but you know typically bitcoin kind of finds its lows around that region in this case, took about one two, three four months to find its lows again, even grinded those lows out about half a year later. But ultimately that was the macro low and then of course same thing over here in 2018 monthly macd. Across the downside, we get the closure below the 20 simple and double a party on my face.
Uh one two three months and the low was found and then another three months and a nice little rally. Of course, march 2020, the old rona we do see a major wick below this was a bit more on the black swan scale. I would say i mean this: one happened, obviously a lot more fast and thus the recovery was faster as well, but ultimately same sort of an idea and yeah. You know we can get. You know wix wicks like that, definitely possible um. We just want to see kind of bitcoin on a closing basis for the monthly find it footing around there. You know within a reasonable uh amount, i would say really no lower than a monthly closure below like 20 000 bucks, for example. In this case, right here um well, we already got the monthly macd across the downside. We lost the pmerp before that actually, and we closed below that white. 20. Simple at the end of april, which was a big another big sort of initiation thing on this channel. That weve been focusing on saying that hey, you know things likely to come down here, um or at least a lot more like than there to go up in this case and wheres the green 55, that is 24 and a half thousand bucks. Again. I look at this on a closing basis. We can certainly get a wic a little bit lower. You know perhaps down around the backfill of the macro breaker on december 2020, which is about 20 000 bucks.
But ultimately, i really dont want to see bitcoin close too far below that on a monthly. We have seen it before. You know: whats happened over here, but not anything like super, egregious in this case um. So, ultimately, you know thats kind of what id be looking for again, a bitcoins going to you know find its footing within that region and re accumulate, which is going to take some time anyways. You know, even if bitcoin does doesnt put in a macro bottom here, its likely to you know bounce around redistribute and then move low. If thats going to happen at all um and by the same token, if it moves to the upside well, its its still likely to re accumulate for a long time. Typically, your accumulations are in equal severity to the to the volatility severity that were seeing right here. You know its a pretty massive move. I mean this is this is a pretty surprise. This is a pretty big move um, you know even for me and im sure many other people whove been around here for a while as well uh. This is you know these. These are, in my opinion, in my humble opinion, very fun times and very opportunistic times, but i do understand for a lot of people out there. It is also you know difficult as well, which i i sympathize with other than that. The next piece that id like to bring up would be this chart back here a different look on this one, but i would like to get a more well rounded look, so let me put on the yellow 21.
. What were gon na do is were gon na. Look at the iterations of silver cross, oh by the way i forgot to mention this as well. Let me just get rid of this. For a second uh, we have a 618 fibonacci retracement from the ultimate high to the ultimate low of this cycle. In the past cycle – and the 618 is around that 25 000 region, as well again, were looking at closing base cs but uh getting closer and closer, and it aligns with a lot of the other things that we looked at as well. All right cool lets put this baby or doesnt really matter but uh. Well, we would like to see this anyways. My point is: is that what were looking at right here is a yellow and a green moving average? The yellow is a 21 exponential. The green is a 55 exponential when they cross, it is called the silver cross and its honestly, i think, its way better than a death cross or golden cross. I think thats mostly um, although you know death cross players, theyre – probably rather happy right now as well, but i think youd be just as happy playing this one and probably more uh opportunities or youd be doing better opportunity. Costs basically is what im trying to say. Anyways um weve, seen this cross happen to the downside a few times in bitcoins history, uh four times to be exact, counting the current iteration that we have going on and the move from that um uh, basically from from that from that cross, has been rather consistent.
As well starting back on over here in 2014, right weve got the silver cross to the downside. Next rally up to the 55 gets rejected and about 63 spot six, two percent from that high to the next major macro low over the course of 63 days does uh does occur um over here we do see the same thing in 2018, but different percentage points In this case about 10 percent uh uh less severity again, i kind of would expect this or i think, philosophically you should expect this on assets um that are, you know maturing over time. This one takes about 50 again about 54.5. Dont have the course of 56 days from that last attempt at a rally towards those moving averages, rejection and down. We go this one over here again, uh rona dump. We do see, you know we do see the cross happen after the dump. Again, you know when we have a black swan event like that, its you know its just its not gon na its, not gon na get them well, but uh, but still the percentage drawdown from the from the big break to the next major low. Very much in alignment with the past few ones as well about 51 and a quarter percent so again just kind of playing out around with numbers here from that last uh, rejection high to where were currently at. If we were to say you know, uh 45 is relevant, um or even 40 is relevant.
That puts bitcoin about 24 and a half thousand bucks um. If we say you know closer to like 45, is relevant. You know because again maturing over time puts bitcoin more around, like 23 50 puts bitcoin at about you know 21 or so so i do kind of like this area in general, for at least at least a bit of a bounce, at least a bit of a Corrective bounce, this move has been pretty damn aggressive. Uh like i said, but you know maybe thats just me, maybe thats. Just me anyways uh. We are 14 minutes into this video. I want to go over now, just one last little thing um. This is going to uh. This is this is basically the only thing that id be looking for to kind of denote the next daily balance for bitcoin um. This kind of what i was posturing, yesterdays analysis on in the day before that saying that a bounce is possible, barring or sorry uh confirmed by either an hourly closure above, i think it was uh whatever the top side of the range was yesterday, which didnt happen. Obviously yeah it was like 30. 32. 6. You know with targets up towards the mid 30s if that were to happen or if the daily still cash across the upside. Obviously that did not happen. That was uh. That was it didnt just not happen. It continued very heavily to the downside right here now. The daily momentum pivot is is at 28 000 bucks.
So if bitcoin could close the daily above, there probably would be looking for you know a corrective bounce again corrective bounce, not the same thing as calling a low. I do think that we probably washed this one out um first before putting in like any sort of like a major bounce. If you will like a a very, very uh, impressive balance, a tradable bounce, you know with conviction anyways other than that. I think thats, a good place me to kind of leave off on this video um. I guess ill shill, my instagram, while im at the end here, please understand a bunch of scammers on instagram im, not them uh. The only instagram that i account that i have is in the link description below any other account is a scammer that is trying to get you to trade like some secret fund, which again i do not. I do not have uh. I certainly have my hands full trading. My own accounts uh, especially during weeks like this. This is you know really where most of work gets done. Uh. What else um buy bit yep should do the old buy bit chill as well. There is a link in the description below uh for buy bit, which gives you some sort of a deposit bonus. Um understand that when it comes to leverage trading exchanges, especially during times like this very unwise to be trading there, unless you already have some sort of a working strategy, some sort of a working strategy that you have back tested and forwards tested without risking financial equity.
You know what you can do on of course: a test net account which buybit does have, which im very supportive of thats, awesome, thats, amazing, uh or even just pen and paper, or we even have a. We even have that for free on the crown trading application over here as well, but other than that uh. I think thats a good place for me to yeah for me to leave off um, keep those areas in mind again: im, not saying that things absolutely have to bottom there, but likely we see at least some bouncy activity and uh from there. You know well kind of judge, is this re accumulating and or sorry is it accumulating and uh, and this is the actual macro low or is this redisputing it and we should get ready for not just rex city but goblin town? You know well into the mid. Maybe even low teens, but for right now, uh that is fiscally speaking um.