Everyone welcome to crypto cap adventure. Thank you. So much for cruising by the video lets talk about the crypto winter lets jump right into it, its funny. I i, the ac, is running running high today and im cold. I have my hoodie on lets. This is so simple everyone. This is such simple data. This is data this isnt. This is not financial advice. I want to get that out there. This is data that ive been tracking with you for a very long time. Lets just lets jump into this this this bearish winter, that were talking about swing high all time. High here we are, this move approaching the 200 week moving average and if we just want to visualize what a what a bearish winter looks like i mean this was all time highs in 2017 to the 200 week moving average that winter, with a capitulation right here. Very similar to so far what were seeing the extension away from the the 20 week moving average right there in green. So this is where we are were watching it, and this bitcoin chart is foundational to crypto markets, foundational to altcoin markets and whats happening and foundational to bitcoin. I think we cant ignore is this chart the traditional markets – and this is the s p 500 index – lets lets throw this out. There too, check this out the last well before covid, but that last consolidation to its own 200 week, moving average in traditional markets.

The s p 500 index: this was bitcoins, bear market low. It is no coincidence its because bitcoin very much was following traditional markets in that move and so bitcoin once again following traditional markets in that move. Now we see theres still room to the downside. For s p 500 index uh to that 200 week, moving average if its going to make a move to that area, its another 10 or so move for traditional markets to continue consolidating. So with that said, there could be continued downtrend for bitcoin, for crypto markets be ready for it, but lets discuss this winter lets discuss well. How long do we need this this hoodie on for and and were going to go over here? I want to take a quick clip from december 9th 2021 check this out for 82 million in cash average price 57 000 people like michael saylor, are scooping up bitcoin at prices, where we are right now, let alone if, if bitcoins, even entering or even approaching the 618, at around 28 000 – i think theres just so much demand im, not so sure how how long a bear market type of dip would even last im, not even so sure it would be nearly as prolonged so thats. The question now were in this were in this cold environment, this crypto environment. We dont have to call it a bear market. We can call it whatever we want, but i like, i, like the thought of just calling it a kind of this, this winter, this bearish winter, its a consolidation and on the macro charts its a higher low on the macro charts right and what i mentioned in That video is im not even so sure in this area and and by the way this video, 48 000 bitcoin was at in december 2021.

Anticipating the move to the downside im not saying i predicted it, we also talk about upside as well. Its just being prepared for every scenario is the key to success in crypto, and here we are in the scenario and that scenario is bitcoin falling to a macro. Uh fibonacci theres, the sev theres, the 618 line from the macro fibonacci right around 28, 000 and bitcoins really on the weekly chart. Interacting with it now, and what i mentioned in the video is im not even sure, with all the demanding crypto and all the demand for bitcoin how long its going to last im, not so sure it will last as long as it did back here right after That capitulation so weve identified. We know theres room to downside in traditional markets. We know theres room for downside to the 200 week moving average in the lower 20 000 range for bitcoin, so theres room to the downside still, but with the demand for bitcoin. How long will that last i mean we can go over here and we can chart lets say the lets. Take our bars pattern and lets chart from when bitcoin fell away from this green line. The 20 week moving average into its into its own winter right this. This entire area of consolidation, a lot of unknown and by this point people probably really talking about when bitcoins hitting you know right around three to four thousand dollars: people talking about a thousand dollars next right and then finally exited but lets lets take that range falling Away from the 20 week moving average and then lets take it to where it kind of escaped the 50 week.

Moving average right here so lets take that its kind of the bearish winter right there on the bars pattern and lets place it from where bitcoin just kind of basically fell away from the 20 week moving average in in the perfect, perfect exact reflection. If bitcoin did exactly what it did in that last bear market, it would show bitcoin at you know breaking this this little area that it this this capitulation area that left the 20 week moving average. Basically, in october 2022 and the question this video is, will that happen sooner or later than that time right and with the demand on bitcoin right now, if bitcoin does fall, could this be a little bit quicker of a bounce right? Could it be maybe, sometime this summer, bitcoin just getting maybe a capitulation to 200 week moving average but a stronger bounce to the upside um? I think weve identified if, if it lasts as long as the last bear market, we see that it could extend to fall of 2022 and listen. Maybe the data doesnt repeat itself and it actually lasts longer right. We need to prepare for prepare for that as well, but i really think theres a lot of demand for crypto. I really think in general traditional markets. They could turn around right very quickly, theres a lot going on in the world with you know, with the war. Obviously, but even inflation, if inflation in even the next coming weeks, months starts to really kind of turn around come down, and there theres this positive sentiment coming back into the markets.

These markets could rally really quick right, and this is what it looked like back then and bitcoin now, going back to this chart with a more established, uh fundamental value across the world countries adopting bitcoin. Now this wasnt happening back here there could be a stronger, quicker bounce out of this mess and im not saying its going to be in the next week, but im just saying over the next few weeks. Couple months, if sentiment in general in this world starts to turn positive if theres a bounce on the traditional markets, this might not last as long as it did in this last bear market. Why? I think thats worth noting and why i think its worth doing this video right its the same reason. I did this video and same reason: ive been charting and tracking. These longer term macro targets its so that we can be prepared – and in this case, if bitcoin were to bounce, maybe it bounces off of the 618 that its at right now in this fibonacci or it comes down to the 20 week moving average in the lower 20, thousands, the point is, we should prepare for it not lasting, perhaps as long as it did back here this in this this. If you look at that very sideways, looking consolidation of bitcoin for months wow, what an opportunity for accumulation – and so it begs the question how long starting now, starting today, will this opportunity of accumulation last? How long will that last for and so its its a certain data point that we all have to consider because, as were all trying to accumulate crypto – and this obviously is a bitcoin chart, but this really applies to the the grand landscape of crypto, as were all Trying to accumulate, we take this data into consideration because its like how much time do we have to accumulate right, and so we have to take that and make our decisions mix it into our plan.

The possibility that it might not last as long as it did. Last time so were were really on track in terms of bitcoin consolidation, its been a mess, the luna situation thats been a mess, uh theres, so much unknown in the world, but wow the data on the screen is so its so on point, theres, absolutely nothing! Out of the ordinary, this is an extremely commonplace chart for bitcoin, and this is a chart. I charted this bitcoin chart theres so much going on, but i charted it back in the bottom of 2018 and its just its its revisiting the fibonacci uh that weve seen it do time and time again in in previous cycles, so its where we are, and now That were in the winter, its a question of how long will we be here – and i think the ultimate answer to that is – nobody knows im a youtuber tracking, the data with you. But what i do know is, i think, theres a very strong possibility. It doesnt last that long as long as it did back then and uh, i think thats very much worth noting even real quick, if you, if you actually look at the how long it lasted from this swing low to to kind of a swing high 301 days, That was all the way back in 2015. This lasted the last bear market 182 days that that bearish winter i should say – and so the question is, will that get cut in half again and will this only last, maybe 90 to 100 days? Could it be this summer, where bitcoins making a turnaround? Is that as much time as we have so? These are just just things im thinking through.

I wanted to just propose that data to you so that you can also kind of think about these things as well. Let me know in the comments below what your thoughts are, but here we are were in the winter. I dont think its a bad thing, its certainly not a fun thing, but well get through it. I think uh, as we always have, but either way everyone please be very careful. This is risky. Crypto is risky, i always say: crypto could fail. I mean this chart could completely collapse right, so take that into consideration as well and be very careful out there. So i appreciate all of you cruising by hit the subscribe.