Finland. Plenty to talk about today, as were gon na, go through a bit of a statistical analysis of what to kind of expect next for bitcoin over this next, like uh, maybe 7, to 14 day period, and with that in mind, i also want to reiterate my thoughts That uh, while bitcoin, has had a phenomenal bounce, and i suspect that this bounce probably does go upwards and onwards over some short amount of period of time. I am not of the opinion that that i would theoretically call the macro low in just yet. In fact, i do think that bitcoin uh for all the people who are saying this is the last time below 30 000 bucks. I think that that is perhaps misguided for right now at least thats, not what the data suggests so were gon na go into that into the macro video tomorrow, perhaps in detail, but for right now. I just want to make sure that, like im not inciting the fomo fears anyways with that said, i want to humbly request that if you do find this content valuable or if you just want to get back in a nice and free way, the like button is The easiest way to do that and its also free, and if you want to dislike the video you can always do that after the video as well. If you just you know, if you decide that you hate it other than that, i want to get into it right now, wasting no more time and lets start off right here.

Actually, this chart is not going away baby, and this is going to be a little bit more of an insight into how i kind of do my own fiscal analysis, uh analysis and kind of the data that im mining for my own strategies. Anyways in this case. This is the five day chart yet again, dont worry were not going to go over the exact same things that we have been before, but i just want to point out that, yes, this has played out weve, seen essentially what you would expect on this move as Much as you can expect from something like this, based on the statistics from it, which was essentially low bbwp over here in the teens, the expansion phase from that on average, has led to about a 45 move to the upside or the downside dont over the course Of you know around about 40 days, what have we seen thus far in comparison to the last uh to the last four or five iterations? Well, we saw a 47 move to the downside, okay thats very much in alignment with what we have seen historically speaking down during the course of 40 days. Actually so not bad right there, i still will be looking at the five days to pass the momentum to kind of judge uh. If and when major pressure for the downside does subside and that number will very likely change massively on the next closing period for right now, it is thirty, six thousand five hundred and thirty um, assuming that bitcoin isnt closed above there like on this next closure, which Is coming in tomorrow night at 7 pm eastern time, i would say that there is still, you know, range at best on the higher term timeframes, but range at best on the higher term.

Frames could still likely uh produce some nice upside over the next coming weeks. So with that in mind, what i want to do now is actually want to and were going to get a little bit more uh in depth here. But basically, what i want to do is i want to now measure the likely bounce or or pull back just essentially like that mean reversion play after this volatility explosion. That typically happens after that target is met, so in this case well start back on over here. This was from the may dump of just last year, so basically exactly one year ago, and what im talking about is, after that first initial move played out based off this signal with the bbwp on the five day and then, of course, the five days cast momentum. After the target was met right here on the ultimate low from you know from that move essentially, obviously not like the ultimate loafer forever uh, but the bounce after that about 29.23 of interest right there. So ive actually already recorded all these down. But what i want to go through is you know how i you know basically taking an average of all these. So in this case, then, we get another upside move over here, a little bit later, a few months later actually and the mean reversion play after that was a move to the downside of about. You know 26.78 in this case same thing again, a few months later on the ultimate high from november, and what do we see from that to essentially the next signal building up right here about 24 and change percent move? So so that was kind of the play right there and then the more recent one we did see this major move this one actually a little bit more on the uh.

You know on the higher side here, of course, coming off the lows to the next major high was about 45 or so so ive already gone ahead and done the math on this and the average uh the average mean reversion play on. This has been essentially uh. 31 spot one percent – now, of course, this this does include both the upside and the downside moves from this. If we were to just look at the downside, moves and the average from that itd be about 38 spot one, two percent, so what we can do now is we can come in from those lows and measure up where those areas would be essentially around and see. If that lines up with anything else from a more tentacles perspective, so in this case right here, we can take the obviously we already have like you know the low for this one and moving upwards and onwards. We do see about a 31 spot. One percent moves put puts bitcoin, basically at about 34 000 bus and im not doing this like exactly. You know perfectly right there, but an average right there. Now again, if we only measure the downside, moves which did have you know, bigger bounces respectfully to the marine version plays from the upside moves. Well, that would be about 38, so i want to mark off first the 34 region, so we dont forget that. Well, just do that right, right, come on its hard to do there we go nice, one and then 38 puts bitcoin uh, basically like 35 000 bucks, which is very interesting, which is very, very interesting in fact, because that is going to align up with a couple Of the major areas that weve that were that weve been looking at from a fibonacci perspective on a likely bounce.

You know over these next couple weeks if bitcoin does indeed initiate it, and where would that essentially be well as we denoted over here? That would be basically around the 0.5 fibonacci retracement, which is also in alignment with the last major gap that we do see from cme right here, obviously from last week, not this past week, but the but the week before that the friday closure to this past monday. Uh open, we do see a nice little gap bullet right there right around the 0.5 fib, essentially 35 thousand buck give or take. You know, 500 bucks from that number all kind of within that same pocket. So, ultimately, you know if bitcoin does uh pop back around there. I would be looking for pullbacks at minimum uh. You know, based off this fib gap, fill and, of course, fiscal analysis. Alongside that and theres very likely uh. You know an area of interest along the way as well the 382, but besides that, i should go over why. I think bitcoins also a little more likely to bounce here, not just because we have met that target based off of that analysis, but also just you know some other macro things as well. Some pretty you know some pretty significant things. Bitcoin came all the way down to the 55, basically on the monthly. You know thats gon na very, very, very, very likely be a a poppy area and also hit the macro fib here, the 618 from the ultimate high of this cycle to the ultimate low of the prior cycle.

You know again, bots and alligators are just typically. You know going to be designed to be closing, typically theyre short positions right around there or you know, buying for a bit of a bounce, although i imagine the short side a little bit more pleasurable right now. Obviously, and if we take this one step further, i do want to say that im generally looking for bitcoin to bounce out of this range now we have not addressed by the way the lower term timeframes just yet well get to that soon. Enough um, but id be looking for bitcoin to bounce out of this range and probably over the next couple weeks, um with upside likely, perhaps around those targets, disagree speaking as long as this condition holds true over here, and this is the daily stochastic momentum. This was essentially what weve been looking at on this channel for the past uh. I guess the past like week now uh suggesting that hey as long as this is down risk is still to the downside. Obviously, but if this pops up corrected, move very very likely incoming, and what do we have right here? We see that dailys cast momentum. Uh is gon na be upside postured as long as bitcoins, basically above its current low, which is 25 600 or so thats. The pivot, obviously thats going to change with each and every passing day, but for right now you know that in alignment with what we see over here on extreme volatility conditions with the daily bbwp actually maxing out at 100 off for multiple days in a row, i Just want to see this get below the moving average and then yes, i am looking for corrective move again corrective move within the context of our current trend would imply likely a lower high and another try to the downside.

Over time, doesnt mean its going to end up completely being that way, but ultimately um, you know im not going to be calling a macro low here, just yet were going to go over the reasons why in tomorrows video, because i want to keep this video a Little bit more on the shorter side, but in this case a few other things of interest right here, as we do see the open interest to use a bad pun, i guess or alliteration or whatever the has come all the way down to levels that we havent. Really seen since september of last year, so we are seeing the grants like its a great reset right. You know everyone with their tinfoil has talked about the great reset, although there is actually i mean they literally do call it that which is kind of crazy. Its. Like who the doing their pr for real uh anyways in this case right here, you know, were seeing the great reset with a leverage you know, people are, are getting washed out of this market, as you would expect, and also just kind of like as a uh As an observation, maybe youve – maybe youve kind of seen the same thing as well. Maybe not, let me know in the comment section below, but what ive noticed is is the i follow like a few uh twitter accounts that just they literally can find a bullish narrative for anything its insa, its like literally insane.

You know its just as bad as like the perma bears as well right, but these people ive been looking at to kind of uh judge the sentiment and i finally started to find them post. Like some, you know more bearish charts, rather than just like straight up. You know just ridiculous right, anyways um, in that case uh. I just thought that that was kind of interesting from an underlying you know. Market sentiment, uh perspective obviously were at like a 10 on the fear and greed, which is you know. Basically, you know some of the lowest that you typically do see it, not necessarily by signal in and of itself, but the other thing that i wanted to get on to now is a shorter term time frame, so we have weve only been addressing the you know. The daily and above uh up until this point, we have not addressed short term time frames and bitcoin has a big range, as we did say yesterday, on the short term timeframes, even uh. Seen as you know, this is a very volatile move, so naturally the ranges will be bigger. In this case. I do look at bitcoin as likely to make that next leg up towards you know probably towards those targets. Uh short term. You know more around about 32. 000, bucks, as that was a 382 which i dont think i mentioned earlier, which you know very likely is a short term resistance at minimum um, but as long as bitcoins above the 618 right here on this current uh consolidation, which is just below 28 000 bucks.

As long as bitcoins above there, especially on a full hour, maybe even an hourly closure as well, i look at bitcoin as a lot more likely to put in a base here whether it comes down. You know a little bit lower to 28.5, like this or or even lower to 28 000, even like this, and then pops back up and does something like that. I dont have a strong opinion on especially seeing that as a weekend, but ultimately um. You know as long as bitcoin remains above 28 000 bucks, thats kind of my line in the sand for the blue laws right here. Bitcoin loses 28 000 very likely gon na retest around the lows, probably make a slightly lower low and ill be wrong about bitcoin, rallying first before playing out more downside, but in this case um you know its still a game of range resolutions on the shorter term Time frames right, uh, the short term timeframe range high is obviously going to be right around here. So i would be constant of this on like an hourly about just below 31 000 bucks doesnt really mean too much, but above there i would be looking for this. Next region to be tested, which is again in alignment with about the 382, i believe, let me just double check yep right. There had about uh 30 to 40 to 32.5, any sort of a four hour closure, maybe even an hourly closure above about uh 32.

Five id say uh and id be looking for that next leg up around that sort of average play that we have seen in the past fulfill the cme gap, very likely, uh pull back from there and then, if bitcoin were to, you know, grind it out and Then roll on over that would be a good time to be looking for you perhaps around the lows, be retested yet again and again thats around about 35 000 bucks. I am still uh macro bearish on bitcoin. As long as bitcoin is, i mean obviously below like 40 000, let alone 45 000. So we wont even discuss that topic for right now, but ultimately uh. I do hope that this was in some way helpful. I think ill be signing off now. This nice and short one. I should remind you, however, that on instagram theres, a bunch of scammers there, only one account the link is in the description below any other account is not me. I dont have any secret trading funds and then also uh buy bit yep. We do have a buy bit shill link in the description below as well its a great place to go get wrecked on. They got good liquidity if, if you need and uh and more importantly, in a sincere tone, as always make sure that you test your strategies out before actually putting anything to work, whether it be levitrating or spot trading, doesnt really matter. In my opinion, theres no reason to put money at risk unless youve actually like backed us, your strategies which you can do for free.

You can do it even on the crown trading application for free its all there set up for you. You can do pen and paper for free, you can do it on excel or or microsoft sheets or sorry, google sheets, whatever the hell for free as well.

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