The last capitulation was this. The final drive to the downside before we can finally see some stability or some growth, and how can we go forward at this point to continue looking for ways to maximize our gains now, what we can see is that, of course, bitcoin has completely crashed for the Last eight days about 34 in value. Now, as that has happened, we have seen our overall capitulation candles come in, which has been a fantastic sign, that we could see relief of some sort towards the upside for sure. But although that is a good thing, and although we did see that capitulation, which again does sometimes have the results of being followed by growth, similar to what we saw back here, what we need to be aware of is that, while we are in times of these Downtrends relief, bounces and rallies, such as the one were in right now happen that will fool people into thinking that this is the moment were going back up to 70k, when people start to get a little bit over optimistic, they start going along, and then next thing You know the wells wrecked them again, so what we want to focus on today is not necessarily if the bottom is in, but how to confirm the bottom is in in order to minimize our risk against these whales. Our whole game plan here is to not fall into their traps, were not going long too early were not shorting too much too far in order for them to then start to add, you know put in some of these relief rallies.

The next thing you know we end up getting liquidated by no, we want to make sure we are looking for the right confirmations at the right time and so thats what im going to go into today. So one thing that i looked at was historically lets kind of just see some similarities and lets see some things that are happening now that we can pair back to you, know, history, to say whether or not its feasible for the bottom to be in just yet. Now the biggest thing that i would go ahead and say is that it does seem as if we have a little bit more room left to fall, and so i am somewhat um a little bit skeptical that were this isnt anything but a relief rally, and that Were just gon na bounce a little bit here and continue to the downside. In my honest opinion, one of the biggest reasons being is just looking at this monthly macd and, as we can see, every single time that this macd crosses, we had one back in december of 2018, one back right around um december of 19, and then of course, We did have one just recently. There is a pretty much a strong commonality over the last couple times in which every time that magdy crosses from that month that it crossed lets go ahead and go back here boom from that month, in which it crossed from the bottom of that month.

To the bottom of the fall, the capitulation that eventually does follow. We can see a loss of about 43 from november 19th to june of 2020 and then, if we do that, put that in the comparison of what were seeing um in 2018, you can see from the bottom of that month to the bottom of the market. It was about 47, so its usually somewhere between 42 to 48 percent, whenever we do see that monthly macd cross now, if we do bring that up to where we are now and put that in comparison, we can see that when we hit the bottom of this Month in which that mac be crossed to where we are now or where we went to, we only went down about 30 percent. A 45 move looks a little bit more, like you know, 20 000, which does align with the general idea that at some point we will come back to retest the previous all time high in which we put in last cycle. Now. Not only that, though, something that also does need to be considered is that we have this moving average, the 20 week moving or the 200 week moving average, which does get interacted with more than any other moving average in the macro sense, and, as you can see, Right now, as we did come back to retest it this time after that magdy cross and this time after that, magni cross that 200 week moving average is also sitting right around that 40 to 45 range, and so for that reason, im still have a conviction that We will visit this range between 20 to 22 000 now that we have set the lower low on bitcoin itself.

So, for that reason i am being extremely cautious and i am being extremely skeptical im saying that im not convinced right now that just because were seeing a little bit of relief that the bottom of the market is in and so for that reason, im gon na Now go over the confirmations, i would need to see for me to be confident to say. Okay, i was wrong. That was the bottom now were working our way to the top side, but what im going to do is im going to just start with the short term im going to talk about the things i need to see in the short term, to start to get more Confident that the bottom is in and then as these goals are you know fulfilled, then we will start to look at some long term goals and long term levels. That will be of importance to saying that we are now in an uptrend, so the biggest one of which im paying attention to at this given point is our 20 simple moving average and the bollinger bands. Now these are going to be fantastic representations of. If we are, you know going back into an uptrend or, if were seeing a relief rally now, generally speaking, if the price of bitcoin is doing what it is now in which its extending to the downside of this bollinger band envelope, almost always, we will get the Resortment back up towards the 20sma, and so what we need to pay attention to is the fact that, as we are now at this point at any given point, we could just see that simple relief rally back up to that 20 sma, which at this point is Currently, sitting at about 36 000, and we at that point could still get capitulated and pushed back towards the downside and rejected similar to what we saw here.

What we saw here, what we saw here, we could go to history and show exactly what happens whenever we get rejected off of it. Look at this fall. Look at this fall. These rejections off the 20 simple moving average are extreme, and so for that reason considering the fact that we are, you know still well within this, the bottom side of this bollinger band envelope at any given point again, we could come back up to revisit it, but While we are under it, i 100 would not be that confident to say that we are in a position of any magnitude to be able to work our way back up to even forty thousand dollars. Now, of course, in the event in which we do clear it, i am expecting us to revisit the top side of our bollinger bands, which, in this example, is currently sitting at about forty three thousand dollars. But of course, this is going to take some time to get back up to that level and clear it and hold it, and so for that reason, im just going to go ahead and say that right now, if im just personally looking for the first confirmation to Say that we have put the bottom in and that we are looking to make our way back up towards the upside. I absolutely need to see this 20 simple moving average get cleared and i need to see us hold above it similar to what we saw back here if we can hold it similar to what we saw back here.

That is a fantastic step, but it is just the first of many steps and which we will need to take to even get close to thinking about setting a new all time. High, remember macro conditions are not good right now. Inflation is not good right now were not at the point that we need to be for these broad markets, especially something like the nasdaq to be able to see some growth just yet, and so. For that reason, it is very important to either be dollar cost averaging, as this thing is falling or if youre a trader and youre someone who just wants to go long and is what you know willing and ready to make a big accumulation. I think the best thing to do is just to be patient and look for those confirmations, because at any given point i still believe that we could see a capitulation back, another 20 to 30 percent for bitcoin. So for that reason, of course, this bounce does look great and im very happy that we are seeing it its nice to finally see a little bit of green in our portfolios. But i wouldnt get too ahead of myself until we again at minimum and minimum get back above this 20 simple moving average. So with that said, im going to continue to update you guys on this as much as i possibly can im going to give you guys. These steps in these goals and as they are fulfilled or as they are canceled out.

I will then update you guys and let you know hey. This is not in play. This is not in the picture. We came back and we lost 26 thousand dollars. So now we need to expect you know 20 000 or something of that nature. I will always keep you guys as up to date as possible and if you do want easy access to me, if you do want access to even more streams and if you do want access to more content, do go down to the link in the description.