You know it goes sideways for a while thats all okay, its gone up. 10X easts gone up 20x. You know that kind of stuff its its crazy, how fast its gone up its like well its not going up today, therefore everythings screwed – and this is the worst thing ever – people just have to be patient on santa horizon. Well, dont forget: when crypto rallies you tend to get these kind of. You know three to 500 rallies in the bull legs, so you know thats a 150 000 in the next rally. Lets say if it goes up 5x and then it corrects a bit and then it goes up again. You know it doesnt take long for the performance to compound. So you know whether its three years or seven years makes no real difference to any of us. The point being is the long term. Logarithmic trend of bitcoin remains in place after a couple of extremely tumultuous days, bitcoin the worlds largest cryptocurrency is back above thirty thousand dollars. The coin has recovered some of the most recent losses gaining over nine percent within the past 24 hours after crashing below two thousand dollars. Ethereum has also regained over eight percent of the earlier loss and is now trading at two thousand one hundred eight dollars. Finance is up by nineteen point, twelve percent at three hundred and twenty eight dollars. Xrp is up by nineteen point. Sixty five percent cardano by thirty one point: twenty seven percent and solana by over twenty three percent, polkadot and avalanche – are also up by thirty four percent and twenty 24 respectively.

The weeks massive sell off seems to have taken its victims, as luma has finally crashed to zero dollars. Taras stablecoin ust has also crashed below 20 cents, though the market is up. We are still dealing with a larger bear market, worsened by macro issues like inflation, fed tightening policies and the increasing threat of recession. In a recent interview, real vision, ceo raul, pal talks about the crash and what investors can look forward to as the market tries to deal with all the negative macro issues. This promises to be an enlightening video, so ensure you watch it to the end and hit the like button. That would really make our day here at savvy finance enjoy the video. The market narrative for the last year has been inflation inflation, with some elements of growth. That narrative is now changing as people realize growth is about to disappear from the from the economy and weve started to see the weakening things like the ism survey and many forward. Looking indicators ive just done a huge piece on real vision about this about the uh. The forward growth is slowing dramatically, so we get this market, this position for inflation and an okay economy. Suddenly you take economic growth and all positions start looking troublesome, so whether youre long commodities or your long equities or your long technology, everything gets blown up at the same time, because the markets really struggle when you change the regime within the markets itself.

I think the regime is shifting eventually to inflation, disappearing and growth going down so a more deflationary environment. So what that means is the financial markets already have tightened? Instead of the fed the rate of change of two year, interest rates has been the fastest on record, and that tends to lead to a slowdown in the economy, as those rate rises kick in. So therefore, the fed are unlikely to raise rates as far and as fast as people expect. My guess is they probably stop raising rates sometime in the summer, and that will be it so and because the the economy is going to be slowing down and inflation is going to be slowing down. That is exactly the environment that crypto likes crypto likes a slower growth, the fed looking to on hold, or maybe on ease thats exactly what happened in 2018 at the crypto low and weve got a very similar setup now, so we should going forward see a situation Where, as the fed narrative changes and the markets start picking it up well see bonds rally, crypto rally, um, maybe some of the technology stocks rally so thats the phase im looking for from maybe the summer but weve got to get from here to the summer. First and thats, when this issue of positions being liquidated can go on were seeing the dollar go up a lot very fast that unstabilizes markets as well. The equity markets cant find a footing.

Theyve probably got another. If we follow 2018, theyve probably got another 10 lower to come that usual that last phase, but i think it is going to be a last phase – tends to bring all assets with it. You know gold is getting hit today, kryptos cant, you know, find traction um, because if you think about it, the reason one of the reasons cryptos not gone up is the fact that and the networks are relatively slow, theyve not grown in a while its because retail Investors, income has not gone up as much as prices, so theyve lost discretionary income. So therefore people can only dollar cost average less can get less involved. So what were seeing is activity within eath, for example, where people are trading nfts and that money stays within the eth economy and theres been a some switching amongst solana, avax luna, that kind of stuff, but the space isnt growing. Because of this issue with with um wages and inflation, so that dynamic needs to shift somewhat, i dont not believe in a halving cycle. I just think its less relevant as more players have come into the space, so it beca doesnt become the predominant driver, but one of the drivers and as we talked about macro, is a big driver in the space that it never was before, because there are different Participants in the market, the different participants, the institutional investors and the hedge fund, investors have also changed somewhat the structure of the markets, so that depends when they have availability of capital and they dont have availability of capital, so theres the market as it broadens out in Its ownership and participants changes structure over time, but the key structure has always been the logarithmic network adoption model, which is metcalfes law.

That is the key structure of markets, whether theres a cyclicality based on the halving cycle or not its kind of largely irrelevant um. What were trying to say is over time. Adoption is everything yeah and also ive done a lot of work on okay. What are the predominant drivers of network effects, and i found that two variables explained most of price. They are the number of active addresses, but, more importantly, the value transacted on the chain. So bitcoin is valued more than ethereum for two factors: theres slightly more wallets in bitcoin, active wallets, but ethereums catching up very fast, and there is um. The value exchanged in bitcoin is higher, so, for example, were seeing terra luna buying um bitcoin big size. We see micro strategies, big size. These size of transactions mean that the value of the network, if youve got big transactions and a lot of people doing them, makes it more valuable. Eth has a lot more transactions than bitcoin, but theyre smaller in value, so the total value being exchanged on each is actually less than bitcoin, even though the number of participants is is, i know whether its higher now or not, but either way its that value. Transacted thats the key part of valuing the network itself. Well, dont forget when crypto rallies, you tend to get these kind of. You know three to five hundred percent rallies in the bull legs, so you know thats a hundred and fifty thousand in the next rally.

Lets say if it goes up five x and then it corrects a bit and then it goes up again. You know it. Doesnt. Take long for the performance to compound, so you know whether its three years or seven years makes no real difference to any of us. The point being is the long term logarithmic trend of bitcoin remains in place and that trend will play out and how it plays out. But over time we know where its going. The real vision, boss and former goldman sachs executive believes there is still hope for the cryptocurrency market later in the year. The fed stop raising interest rates. He also sees larger price increases, driven by larger network adoption in the long term. What is your outlook for the cryptocurrency market in 2022? You see a bounce that takes us to a new all time, high or more months of consolidation between 30 thousand and forty to forty five thousand. Please leave your messages in the comments section below and dont forget to hit the like button.

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