WARNING: The Crypto Market Is About To Bottom (THE EXACT DATE I’M GOING ALL IN)
The bitcoin price sees a hell of a reversal candle as 168 000 btc leave exchanges. In fact, btcs price action is back up above thirty thousand dollars after 24 hour gains of 30 percent. Yes, love to see any sort of life in this market like right here, but im not getting too excited yet and heres. Why always just keep in mind? Bounces are just as much a part of bear markets as they are a part of bull markets. They happen in all markets. Now i am not a financial advisor. I have no clue ultimately what the price of bitcoin will do tomorrow. Neither do you, but in todays video i want to share with you my opinion, as well as a series of charts to back it up on where i see this market going next, so, like always check the time stamps down below hit the like button. If you want to support me, support this content and lets jump in starting with, although we have a slight little bounce today, why do i think the crypto market is heading lower in these next couple months to maybe year? Well, this all stems from how the crash started. Originally the crash for all markets, the nasdaq, the stock market, the housing market, the crypto market – why everythings crashing? Because the federal reserve continues to suppress markets to combat all the money they printed. So last week, as we covered on this channel, the federal reserve announced their biggest interest rate hike since 2000.
Raising rates 0.5 percentage points, a very aggressive, raise to combat very aggressive inflation, and that was last week and although nothing significant can change week to week this week we got the latest numbers. Is inflation fixed? Yet, as per the latest numbers from two days ago, inflation barreled ahead at 8.3 percent in april, up from a year ago, 8.3 percent remaining near a 40 year high, so the fed has much further to go and by the way these are just the quote. Unquote, official numbers: if you buy gas, if you buy food, if you buy a used car, you know inflation is much much higher. My point is that we can use this information, this massive inflation and look back at history to kind of give us a clue on what the fed may do next. This is a chart from mid 1970s to where we are today. 2022. The red line represents u.s inflation over the years, and the green line represents the feds actions of either raising or lowering rates to combat that inflation. And what do you notice well number one? We havent really seen inflation as big as this since the 70s into the 80s and number two. When that did happen, the federal reserve had no problem being very, very aggressive, and you can even see here as inflation rose, interest rates went way way higher to suppress the markets, and that brings us to where we are today in 2022.
Interest rates still way down here, while inflation up much higher my takeaway from seeing something like this is. I would only suspect that they would keep raising rates until they push us into another recession. Like weve seen, these gray areas are recessions, like weve seen so many times, so just some macro economic perspective to keep in mind as we look forward into these next several months anyway. Lets keep moving. My point in all that was is thats. Why? I think the crypto markets and markets in general still have at least a couple more months. You know who knows, but at least a little bit more down to go, but i do just want to sum this up before we get to my plan for the future. I do just want to say that i have been actively dollar cost, averaging bitcoin and ethereum btc and eth specifically, so i bought the dips. I bought this dip back here. I bought this dip back here and we when we dipped to as low as 20, 25 26 or whatever it was. I bought a little bit more at around 27 000. So if we keep going down ill, keep buying thats my toxic trait but lets move forward and look to the future, i want to share with you specific charts and data. Why? I feel if slash when we dip lower, it could be the ultimate generational bottom and its one thing to say it, but let me prove it here is the latest data from analyst will clemente for the past few months, ive been saying its a great time to Dollar cost average heavily into bitcoin.
Now i believe bitcoin is very close to a multi generational galactic bottom, where i plan to allocate all of my dry powder for my grandchildrens grandchildren. Let me explain: wow thats a bold statement and how will we know when that quote unquote bottom is here: slash is close. Well, first off realized price. We are very close to bitcoins realized price, which is an aggregate cost basis of investors. The current bitcoin realized price sits at 24 000. So here is the chart and again bitcoins actual price. The one we all know is around thirty thousand dollars btc or a little bit under bitcoins realized price in the green is sitting at around 24 000, very close and again just to make this very clear. What is bitcoins realized price bitcoin realized price is the value of all bitcoins at the price they were bought divided by the number of bitcoins in circulation. That gives us the average cost basis at which all bitcoins were purchased and just for comparison, unlike the current market price right, this is the price we all know which tells us. The price btc is right. Now realized price tells us the average purchase price of all bitcoins in circulation, the last time they actually moved, not on its current value, but on the value when it last moved from one wallet to another. We are assuming that movement from one wallet to another wallet is bitcoins being bought. So i will link this down below if you want to do more of your own research on bitcoins realized price.
But if we look at a live chart like right now, we can see the actual price is just under 30k and the realized price is just under 24k and again. What this means to you is its often been a great model for crypto market bottoms and its not good its, not like you. Cant, pass below realized price weve been below realized price for months at certain times, but its always been the ultimate buy the dip opportunity. If you have that long term mindset so lets, keep moving with bitcoins realized price in mind. The market price for bitcoin to realize price ratio is now very close to the green bottom zone. So here is that chart the ratio between market price and realized price, and you can see every time we dipped into the screen buying zone im talking every single time has been around the bottom and again you dont come out of the green zone right away. You could stay in this green zone for weeks, if not months, but thats the time to accumulate lets, keep moving by the way like the video hit subscribe as these numbers change. As my opinions change, i will keep you updated. I will keep making videos but lets keep going more charts and well move through these sort of quicker looking at dormancy flows for bitcoin. They have been in the buy zone technically for the last few months, but theyre now approaching levels that have previously set generational bottoms.
Here is that chart blown up and yes, full disclosure. We have technically been in the buy zone for this chart for the last several weeks, but if we dip lower seen only about one two three other times in history, that is the generational by the bottom opportunity and again obviously nobody can see the future make your Own decisions: do your own research im, just showing you my thought process. Next up lets. Look at reserve risk. This kind of shows hodlers confidence, reserve risk is heading into the lower bound of the buy zone illustrating hodler confidence relative to price and again last time. This metric got this low was the black swan event of 2020? Was the bear market, the depths of the bear market in 2018, 2019 and again the depths of the bear market in 2015 2016, which in retrospect great time to buy? Also, the mayor, multiple, which i know many of you – have used in the past. The mayor, multiple is in the buy zone almost at historic lows: thats bullish, taking a look at ta bitcoins price is approaching the 200 moving average as well and not to say we cant dip underneath the 200 week moving average, but again just looking historically man. Any time we touched, we hit the 200 week ma awesome time to buy anyway in summation what this means to you just gon na, like the vid real quick, but in summation, based on the aggregation of all these metrics and price levels.
The bottom is most likely in the low to mid twenty thousand dollar region, aligning with the theory of front running previous all time high. The question to ask yourself is: is, in two years will buying bitcoin right now at around twenty nine thousand dollars versus maybe sniping the bottom later. Will that matter, probably not but im gon na? Try all right give me your thoughts on this down below which metric out of all these. Do you put the most credence into? Do you like the most lets, all check the comment section together, but my plan is, as we watch what the bitcoin price does in these next few months. My plan is to keep tabs on those metrics and if they keep flashing bullish or keep flashing buying opportunity. Im going to keep accumulating im, not even going to necessarily try to time the bottoms because, again im taking that long term perspective. Give me your thoughts down below, but that is the video. My names austin, like always see you tomorrow and be sure to take advantage of this promo with sponsor of the channel ftx get up to 100 in crypto, with altcoin daily through one of the most well respected exchanges in space.