Investors starting to see cracks in crypto yield pools: Needham's John Todaro
I i think the risk certainly is within decentralized borrow lending protocols. Uh theres also likely some risk with foreign brokers operating in this space, so this risk certainly seems like its just kind of beginning. What i would say is on the decentralized side, so a lot of the d5 protocols. A lot of those positions are over collateralized. So you shouldnt quite see the underfunding situations that can happen with centralized borrower lenders, but that being said, you could still see a lot of liquidations with that collateral being sold off on d5 protocols, so that could lead to continued price declines, at least in the underlying Class, what about the bigger public companies like like a coinbase? How much risk is there for these companies, given the extreme market conditions, which is something celsius cited yeah so coinbase primarily um is an exchange business right now, so there really isnt that borrowland um issues that youre starting to see in some of the other parts of The market um on the you know on the exchange side. Coinbase seems to be still very solid, its quite a different business model uh than the celsius of the world, or these other borough lenders. Where youre offering really high yields uh for assets to be deposited on those platforms, uh and its you know, you start to question: where does that yield really come from come from coinbase isnt engaging those type of businesses so its uh? It looks quite a bit different, but the the real risk to coinbase now is: where is retail investor sentiment? Not only are there crypto concerns theres.
Also, broader macro concerns thats, probably going to start weighing, even more so on retail investor interest in the space, so that could could lead to lower volume so that that, i think, is the primary risk of coin basis. In some of these trading volumes continuing to fall further, do we know how much leverage uh retail has been using in this area uh and how much of a concern that should be its difficult to say, so you used to be able to get a hundred times. Leverage on international exchanges, so exchanges outside the u.s regulators brought that down some. So a lot of the platforms ended up over 20 times, still thats, quite a bit of leverage in the space um and a lot of the times. Also not only just the exchange leverage. You could take, but you could deposit assets in a number of different platforms to earn additional yield so thats, where youre starting to see a lot of the cracks in these yield, pools what users could do, whether retail or institutional they could deposit one asset, collect a Yield stake. Another asset for another yield, get a derivative asset from that state that for another yield, so youre, starting to see a lot of thats where youre starting to see a lot of the concerns um. And so there is some apparent levels of that aspect. But once again, from d5, most of the positions that you can take are over collateralized.
So you really shouldnt have some of that leverage. Where you have an underfunded position, they arent understood um kate mentioned binance, this stuck transaction. Do you have any idea what that means and what that will mean, or you know, if its a concern its difficult? I think anything in this market right now can be certainly read as a concern. Um, you could have situations where a wallet youre having difficulty with transactions coming into certain wallets, so there could be some issues related there, but the longer it stretches then it starts to become bigger. John, do we have any updates on uh the percentage of holders now? Who are underwater since their purchase uh its a good question? You can track that uh on some of the blockchain applications out there. I havent looked at that um today, i would say at this point youre starting to look at likely a decent amount. If you i mean just looking at the crypto asset prices, if you got in before october of 2021, there might be some positions youre still up on, but by and large youre starting to be down quite a bit. Um bitcoins actually held up pretty well, but ethereum. Now is is traded down quite a bit and then, if you look at a lot of d5 tokens, those are down in 90 or so over the last year. So a lot of different areas within crypto assets, even if bitcoin and ethereum are holding up decently.
Well, uh, some of the smaller market cap all coins that have inherently more risk. Those are already down quite a bit and, i would almost say, ive been in the bear market for six to nine months or so shepherd smith.