Video first is more news on the celsius situation and what theyre doing to try and reduce their leverage. Im going to show you some some facts on this and then the key thing this week, which is the feds rate decision and what theyre going to do, because thats going to move markets as well, so theres a ton going on and its a really complex situation. Right now in the macro and whats going on with crypto and this celsius situation as well. So, as you can see here were trading around 22 000 right now, um the market is, is trying to find a level right here, but there is a huge kind of elephant in the room which is celsiuss uh, wrapped bitcoin position on make a dao, and i Want to show you where they are with that and how kind of in the in the lurch that they are with their leverage position there. So um in terms of the price things should get really volatile around the rate decision this week as well, which is happening. Um tomorrow, on the 15th so thats when the fed is going to come out and tell us what the next interest rate hike is going to be, and the market now thinks this is going to be 75 basis points and not the 50 basis points that was Expected that drove the market much lower kind of over the weekend and on monday as well, and then that was part of the reason why uh celsius basically got themselves tied up with being over leveraged as well, because it obviously sent the market down.

So what we can see here really this 22 is a is kind of a key level really because thats, where some liquidations were going to happen for celsius celsius, have added um some collateral and actually moved that lower, so ill. Show you exactly where that is, but in terms of levels right here were really in uncharted territory. Now, if you go to the 200 week, moving average you can see. Bitcoin is right on that now, im just going to reset the chart right here. If the 200 week, moving average was actually visible, which it isnt right here were actually right on it, so this is like a a multi year, um for the last kind of 10 years that the 200 week moving average has actually been able to be calculated, were Right at that level now so in terms of, like ultra long term, support this is kind of it and theres a ton of kind of on chain cost basis that are around this level as well. So this is a very key level. It does not mean that its the bottom here, though, because essentially, what were trading on now is liquidity and nothing else were trading on how liquid are you um? You know with your leverage right and essentially this is celsius which is kind of the big block. Right now like how liquid are they, how much do they have in the tank to put um more bitcoin into their leveraged position? Can they afford that the market is trying to figure this out, and something really interesting right you can see here is that you can see both bitcoin and ethereum are really really down right.

In the last uh 24 hours, bitcoins down, eight percent ethereum only two percent things like so. You look at these all coins, all kind of um. You know having a dead cat bounce off the lows: why on earth would these more speculative altcoins um come up around 10, but bitcoin itself is down seven and a half percent thats such a strange price movement? Well, the reason is is because there is a specific player in the market which is celsius. Who really is the market is essentially the big whales are really trying to turn the screw here on celsius and find their liquidation level. So what youre seeing is big players at work right now, trying to essentially cart celsius? So why is that? This is really key here, so this 22 level is where celsiuss previous liquidation threshold was around this level um, so thats really important. We need to get on to that. Firstly, though, what i want to touch on is rates also, if you do want to trade this, which is, you know, pretty crazy, but if you are a trader and you want to trade, this volatility check out, buy a bit ill link them in the description. Theyll. Give you four thousand dollars in your futures trading account as a deposit bonus or up to four thousand. So if you trade futures, you havent got that check that out by the link in the description. The key rate, though, and this is going to affect celsius and crypto this week – is the feds latest rate hike expected to be 50 and now expected to be 75 basis points from what ive been reading.

Essentially, the fed have leaked uh that they are going to be raising 75 basis points now because of the terrible inflation figure last friday, and so that was way over what people expected, and so the fed has to basically become extra hawkish. Raise rates by 75 basis. Points in one meeting, which is a lot um and thats, obviously sending all risk ass risk assets lower and what triggered some of this celsius sell off. So what we can see here, this is the us 10 year up at range highs again around 3.2 percent. So we were coming off this and things were stabilizing when that inflation figure came out were back to these kind of you know. Multi year resistance levels now um 75 basis points uh can potentially thats what thats whats going to happen. So i think the market is pricing this in now. You can actually see this right here from from ftx. You can see that what is the market pricing in right now? The market is pricing in a 74, basically, 75 basis points move so thats whats being priced in right now that was what monday was about. You know interest rates going up, inversely, risk assets, go down and so thats what we saw now for the next three meetings. A 200 basis points cumulative move over that time, so thats 2 times 75 and 1 times 50.. Its a ton of interest rates, um ton of rate hikes that just werent expected a few months back so as long as inflation stays high and the fed keeps raising like this just expect more and more pain in equity and crypto markets in risk assets.

This is what priced in at the moment. So if a 75 basis points rate hike comes tomorrow, that will not be surprising to the market. The market is pricing that in if it comes in at 50, thats going to be below market expectations. I wouldnt expect the market to rally on that, though, that would tell the market that the fed is totally detached from reality. So essentially, what were seeing here is that we are raising rates, um, raising the price of money, raising the strength of the dollar versus everything else, and so, conversely, youre seeing all risk assets come down and crypto. Is that and then obviously a recession coming from this? So eventually were just going to see oil tick, up commodities, tick up again and again and again, and then suddenly everything theres going to be a big crash of all that demand as the recession hits so thats. What were really going into this is important for celsius. As well, so let me get on to that. So by now you know, celsius essentially had loads of wrapped bitcoin and staked eth in d5. That was obviously the price was coming down that they had loaned dollars against. This means that they, essentially the the price of the collateral that they had on account for their loan, was coming down. The big thing here is that celsius were owning dollars against a risk asset, and that means theyre, always on the hook for those dollars.

So lets say: bitcoin was 1.5 billion worth right, so they had 1.5 billion dollars worth of bitcoin uh on lets, say, are they or maker and they borrowed lets, say a billion dollars against that? Well, bitcoin comes down in half, but you still have the dollars loaned that you need to pay back and so its just like anyone right. When you get a margin call, then you need to pay back the loan. The thing is with celsius is that obviously they have customers withdrawing assets and thats where they had to stop the assets because they had these leveraged positions and they also had a lot of staked ether as well, which you cant withdraw. But they were honoring withdrawals from their platform, so its a really complex situation. I dont know all the specific things about celsius and kind of what theyre doing here. I just have bits of information, so take this. What it is this right here is celsiuss maker, dow vault, so maker dao is a protocol where you can put assets on, and then loan die stable coin against that and you pay an interest rate now. What the market is hunting here is essentially celsiuss liquidity and ability to um have collateral to back their loan. So what you can see is that their liquidation price is now 16 852. were just going to click into the history right here and see what theyve done in the last few days now uh on thats today, right june 14th, they added another 2 000 wrapped bitcoin To this vault in order to lower the liquidation price, whose bitcoin is that celsius is which is their clients right um, so you can see june 13th, they added 4 000 wrapped bitcoin on the on june 12th, uh whats at 1165.

. So obviously, as the price of bitcoin comes down, your collateralization ratio goes down and you need 150 percent. At least the last liquidation price is about around 21 22 000, so theyve added wrapped bitcoin on here to take the liquidation price down to 16 852.. You can see, though, that they can uh generate around 90 million dollars. I think 90 million dollars worth of diet. Now they have to pay that back right. So they have two options here. They either pay it back those dollars right and thats an issue because where, where are those dollars now, or they just keep adding wrapped bitcoin um to lower the liquidation price? So this is what the market is essentially trying to turn the screw on its like hey. We know that your liquidation price is 16 800., so we are going to sell and sell and sell and short the market and turn the screw on you, because once it gets down here, then the whole position is liquidated and its worth half a billion. So the market, obviously looking at you, know bitcoin versus all coins its going to keep depressed until um. You know one of the other parties in whats happening here. Uh gives up essentially celsius have a few options here. They can pay back the die loan and basically take a huge haircut on the wrapped bitcoin that they have, and that means clients take a haircut as well. They can potentially raise funds from investors to further back the collateral that they have on their account.

That would be difficult because who is going to give the money now? Because the brand has been solid right. So how you know if they have to raise money from investors theyre going to either have to sell equity and quite a lot of equity. They may have to get you know a competitor to try and kind of come in and take a controlling stake. So a lot of this i dont, know whats going to happen. These are just speculations. So all of this is speculation on my part, so dont take it as obviously something that will happen, but you know this. This is where the market is looking and saying. Well, if celsius is weak, theyre going to try and and test celsius by driving, bitcoin lower by driving ethereum lower, which is the positions that they had and really you know, try and turn the heat up on celsius. So that is a market dynamic that were going to have to look out for and if interest rates, keep rising and rising and rising. That means the price of all these assets will keep falling, which makes things you know more difficult on celsius, all the time and other players in the market. Many other players that have leverage as well so youre. Seeing all of these liquidations happen now and so every liquidation that happens, the price just gets dumped on a little bit more and then eventually, when the leverage is out. That is when you know all the ashes are there and then you start to get these little shoots again.

So how long that takes? We dont know, because this recession could be very quick this year it could be going into next year and so theres. Just a very complex situation, uh with crypto and the macro right now as well when it comes to bitcoin and eth, because these are the largest assets and theyre actually used as collateral, whereas most other cryptos arent to any massive extent, theyre going to be hit. The most with these force liquidations and so dont look at the chart going back and saying. Well, these are good levels from the past. What were looking at now is what is the pain you know how leveraged are people? What are the levels that they need to get out at in terms of forced liquidations and how hard and deep are these rate hikes going to go? Thats really the three things to look at? They are impossible to foresee um, but only when the leverage is out can you start to even think about things kind of settling um and then going back to some sort of you know kind of out of the bear market, but obviously the macro.

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