We had the just now had the fed interest rate decision decision has been made to increase it by 0.75 percent. That is also what i expected and what i communicated to the channel members earlier today. In the last few days, what we have seen is that originally anticipated was 50 basis points of 0.5 um and, however, in the last few days the expectation has sort of moved towards 75 basis points, and this is in the end also what has happened, my ex, What i also i think mentioned in the previous video, my expectation was that the higher increase that originally wasnt expected but then sort of became the expectation became already priced in in the last few days. And that is why weve seen those prices drop a little bit and it has become priced in now. There is one theory um, you know what my view generally is. I mean im not really focusing too much on fundamental news, but certainly the uh. These events here like today they can generate short term price action, short term volatility, but oftentimes they only accelerate. What would have happened anyway. So, looking here generally at the elliott wave count, we are still with bitcoin in this wave 2.. Now the wave 2 is, after this large wave 1, which was an impulsive wave all the way to the back, then, all time high at 65 and a half k that was back in april 21.. This is a wave 2 corrective wave and this can go all the way down to the 88.

7 percent flip level yeah. So it is extremely difficult to say from a high level point of view where the low will be you know. So all i could tell you was back in november december to give you a target area below 28.6 k that was below the low of june june 21 yeah um, because in such an abc correction that we have seen here, it is highly important to get below The low of the wave a and therefore i could remain so confident over the last six to seven months to tell you that we are going to go lower. Then we came into my target area between 20 and 28.6 k and were still in the target area. So scenario has been perfectly fulfilled now that we get closer and closer to the low end, we can see how the price action unfolds. My primary expectation is still that we havent seen the low and the question is often: how of how low can we go? There are two key levels now the 16.9 k level. So, first of all, should we go below the target error which ends at 20k? We can certainly go to the 78.6 percent flip level at 16.9 k or even to the 88.7 flip level at 10.6 k. This is all still possible in the current elliott wave scenario. So if we go lower than the 20k level, it doesnt have anything to do with elliott waves or that they dont work.

It just means that they extend out a little bit. This is absolutely all possible in the current scenario of a wave 2 as it is coming down um, because anybody whos been watching my channel for a while knows that a wave 2 can go all the way down to the 88.7 fib level, and we can see Even lower at the moment with some altcoins, however, the younger an asset is the more volatile and therefore i would not expect this 88.7 flip level for bitcoin. I dont see it at the moment yeah. So should we really go below 20k? This 78.6 percent flip level at 16.9, k or 17k is certainly a very, very relevant level, where the price has a good chance to turn around. However, it could also just turn around at 20k, because this is sort of the low of the um or the high of the last bull market. Yeah bitcoin, as i said before, never went in a bear market below the high of the previous bull market, which doesnt mean it couldnt. Do it. It just means there will be significant support, yep psychological support, so we just need to be aware of that. Um the low could now be in at any time. Honestly, it really could, but, as i always say, we need bullish confirmation first. Otherwise, i cant confirm to you that the low is already in um and at the moment, the way this has shaped and formed, and i made the channel members away away aware a little bit earlier that it is looking like the way this is unfolding at the Moment, im currently leaning towards a triangle structure, and we can see that triangle would finish at the wave e here.

So we have another in a wave 4 yeah, meaning that the wave 4 isnt finished yet. So it means that we have here another a b, c d e price structure. There is currently also no confirmation that here the wave i mean this could extend out further yeah, absolutely weve, seen it in the past triangles can just extend out further. It could be that the wave c will make it once more higher. You know – and this is what we dont know yet um, but it would suggest either way, even if this triangle changes shape a little bit. It would indicate that what we need to do to break to the downside here, which this triangle suggests we will, because we would normally break out to the downside of the wave e um. We would need to go below the wave d first. That would be an indication, but not a confirmation indication, but that is at 20.2 k at the moment the confirmation would be below the low of wave b. Now that is pretty much exactly 20k just slightly above it um, and if we go below below that, it would confirm that the triangle is broken and were probably going to head down. Lower triangle would be invalidated at the moment. If we go above the wave c high, that would be at 21.7 k or 21 750 roughly yeah. The thing is, even if we go a little bit higher, it could still be that the wave c is just not finished yet and it will extend out a little bit.

But that is not so important to understand what is so important to understand in this triangle. Formation is when we break wave b that confirms that were going to head further down until then, this triangle can move out, can move up and down and its nearly impossible to forecast okay to the upside. If we go really above 23 295 – the wave a high, then this is actually the real invalidation point here. The move above the wave c high will invalidate the current triangle, but will not invalidate the idea of a triangle as a whole yeah which, because it can still move around and get bigger and you know, extend out a little bit. But if we really go above the wave, i a high here, 23 295 or below the wave below its pretty much 20 000. Then this triangle is broken yeah. Then it is not a triangle anymore or weve, broken out to either side so, and this would then suggest that we are going to head further down in another wave five. That is still what i primarily expect, even though i bought bitcoin today around twenty thousand to a hundred um and again, i made channel members aware bitcoin and eth yeah, because um in my opinion, especially what the sort of longer term indicators show it is at the Moment for me personally accumulation time um i mean i already started buying bitcoin again above 30k, just above 30k and um.

You know it is sort of a long term game isnt it um, especially if you put into your hotel portfolio this, especially if you look at certain indicators here, which you can find on look into. Bitcoin.Com weve also have an extreme fear at the moment extreme fee. In the market, which is also a good indication that a bottom is forming, which doesnt mean it needs to form tomorrow and finish tomorrow, but it means were very, very close yeah, and this is also suggested by the elite wave count which would suggest at the moment. One more leg down, but then is there. There is really then a realistic chance that could be it yeah and again, as soon as i see confirmation that we go here to the upside, i will of course let you know. We need a five wave move to the upside and impulse up and the corrective move down. Then we can be more certain and get confirmation. But honestly, as soon as i see something i will make you aware im on high alert here watch the chart very closely and as soon as relevant, i will sketch certain breakout scenarios on the chart and will then make you aware in the videos. Okay. So there could be a bit more volatility today, but again we dont really see a lot of movement. At the moment there was a bit of volatility for a short period and again that could start later again.

At the moment, there isnt much movement, and that is also what i primarily expected um. I told the channel members today on telegram that, because it has probably been priced in already this 75 basis point movement, that we might not see a lot actually and maybe even see a short rally. Now we dont see a short rally, but we dont see a lot of movement, even though there is a bit of volatility currently in the market, but normally you would have seen a bigger reaction to a 75 basis. Point increase yeah, so um could really be that a lot was priced in already okay, so this is currently my view about bitcoin. Hopefully you liked the update, if you did please hit the like button, leave a comment and subscribe and if you really like the content, check out the channel membership and uh yeah, maybe even the trading course im offering on more cryptoonline.com and make sure you follow us On instagram and twitter, and for both you can find the links in the video description.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBrU5qX4L74