For you. I know a lot of you are abuzz as we watch bitcoin plummet in price. I have some good insights. I think to share today im going to try and make this quick, because i have a consulting session, starting which im still offering uncomplication sessions to anyone whos interested you can book time with me on this gumroad page link is in the description. Lets talk about your startup lets. Talk about your crypto lets talk about your deep existential fears, ive really enjoyed all of the different people. Ive talked to now yeah helping you just kind of have a sounding board digging into some complexity. So we can find that profound simplicity, so uh yeah check it out. I look forward to talking to more of you, but lets dig into bitcoin lets talk about the market and yeah theres a couple things that i wanted to share today. So the first is, as always, when in doubt, zoom out lets take a look at this big picture um. This is my favorite macro level view of bitcoin on the blx, the brave new coin liquid index for bitcoin um. These bars here, these uh kind of greenish bars, represent the havings, and some of you have called out that these dates are wrong. Thats, because every time i resize this chart trading view likes to reposition those bars so as much as ive reset them. These are approximate. They might be off by a few days or even a week, but essentially in bitcoin uh.

There is this, this event that happens every four or so years, where the reward that is paid out to miners is cut in half, and it just so happens that every time that has happened so far, it has kicked off a market cycle. And if we look at these market cycles in more detail, i like this image here, even though it doesnt have the most recent cycle. We can see that each time weve had a bull market, followed by a bear market followed by accumulation and then expansion, reaccumulation, bull market bear market accumulation, expansion, reaccumulation and so my belief, my crypto thesis, is that bitcoin is highly cyclical. I think thats, one of the things thats really enticing about it to institutional investment types is that there is a game here that is being played, and you can see that the actual intensity of these uh parabolic run ups during the bull market, theyre getting squished attenuated. Smaller each time around – and that was true of this most recent uh run up uh. We can look at this with the logarithmic regression, which is kind of a cool way to look at it, theres, better, adjusted ways to look at that regression too, but its its flattening out uh. Will we see a hundred thousand dollar bitcoin? I have no doubt, will we see you know a million dollar bitcoin im less confident, but the the thesis again that im im operating under is that we are going to continue to see these phases of intense markup and when youre in that type of a phase.

It is a phase where people are selling you what theyve already bought and its marketing everything in crypto is marketing uh. Anything that you hear about a certain project about bitcoin were going to talk a little bit about michael saylor and plan b here in a moment. But you just have to remember that everything you hear in crypto is marketing its either trying to get you to buy something or, in the reverse sense its trying to get you to sell something and that plays into these uh cycles as well. When were in a bull market uh, the bull horns are on. People are in the streets, your grandmas calling you up asking about bitcoin and it seems like theres, just nothing but a bright future ahead. That is a markup phase where the price is being marked up and those larger holders that accumulated back in these red zones are selling, and then the bear market is what weve been experiencing its. This uh struggle. Sideways movement really going nowhere just to grind down and down and down to get back into this place in time where nobody wants the stuff. Nobody wants bitcoin and, as i was looking at just my news, feed earlier today from even you know, coindesk and all of these places that are normally really positive on crypto the news about it is just dismal. You know more regulations, crackdown on monetary policy, uh different crypto companies that are going out of business.

Its just you know the articles right now on on. Even if we went to like lets go to just like yahoo finance bitcoin. You know everything is going to be doom and gloom. You know fourteen thousand dollar bottom sinks to a fresh eighteenth month low as crypto meltdown deepens billion dollars in liquidations on a black monday. Crypto is down, but not out uh crypto debacle at celsius, rattles market already shaken by terra, so um. This gets back to what weve talked a lot about on. This channel is just remember that this is largely an emotional game um. The only way that large interests are able to sell things at huge markups is because they they theyre able to create that extreme greed and the only way that theyre able to accumulate over long time periods without everybody you know rushing in to to buy as well Is with these periods of extreme fear – and this has always happened over time – were back in this period of extreme fear and its likely to continue because, as we look at our big zoomed out view, weve got a lot more time to go before we get to This you know 2024 ish moment where we will likely kick off another cycle, thats, not to say that it has to happen this way. This is just looking at what has happened and again not thinking about the what not thinking about price. You know technical support resistance.

Any of that kind of stuff were purely looking at the why? Why is this a profitable game for there to be these long phases of accumulation prior to these huge markup phases and selling and, as we saw um really clearly a sophisticated market taking money from retail investors? These uh accumulations – and you know accumulations that come before the distributions, where people think the price is going higher, its going higher its going higher and people are willing to buy something for 60. You know 70 000 uh. That was worth only 3 000 previously, before the price turns around and um. You know what what im really just kind of rambling about here is uh. This is what weve been talking about. These are the wyckoff cycles. This is psychological, its the. Why behind the market and the psychology of what drives something up is the reverse of what keeps something low and allows people to. You know large interest to buy and accumulate over large periods of time, so that that whole process can be rinsed and repeat and repeated. So, if im looking at this chart here – and i want to make a prediction – lets talk about long term prediction first and then lets talk about short term predictions, because theres kind of cool stuff that we can do there too. So if i just zoom out here and i look at these market cycles and say what do i think is going to happen next, i think that were still in a period of bear market.

I dont even think weve really got to the accumulation. Yet i think that were going to see a lot more scaring a lot more people fleeing this space and all the doom and gloom news im expecting that were going to see you know weve, never really gone below a previous market cycle peak uh in the bear Market um, but the the prices were also a lot smaller. I was looking at this. The distance between the uh lets see the market cycle top in 2013 was at about thirteen hundred dollars and then the bear market floor was at um about thirty two hundred dollars. Uh loosely thats about 158 percent um above that previous market cycle peak uh in that bear market floor of uh 2018 and this time around weve almost kissed it. So we were at 20 000 ish dollars earlier today, which is right about that market cycle top. So i dont know if were going to to continue this trend of staying above the previous market cycle peak uh im going to im going to speculate that we wont i dont again with the y. I dont think its as important to maintain these levels as it is important to drag this price down here and get into a real phase of accumulation. You know there will still be constant money making happening here with these daily moves were going to talk about how the market moves in a shorter time frame if youre sticking around and wanting to play, this bear market game, but i see no reason why we wouldnt Be getting back into an accumulation zone and then typically, what happens is that when we hit this moment this uh this having you know there, there is momentum that is just built in and then narrative change.

And now who knows whats going to be going on in the world in 2025? It could be war, it could be famine, it could be the collapse of the dollar, the blah blah blah. Who knows whats going to happen here, but i im pretty confident its going to drive a big narrative. That crypto is where you want to be, and the way that i look at this is each of these market cycles. If we just do fibonacci extensions and we go from high to low, you know this – this market cycle, we got pretty high in the extensions you know right out of that extension zone. The next time around you know high to low. We were we really put in a very nice and tight um extension. After that you know the run up and then the crash back down. You know we were in these high extensions throughout a lot of the bull run, when people thought that it was going to break out and go to 220, we had already kind of paid off that that accumulation that potential that the market had, and so, if i Just think about this again – and i say i think that were going to get down to some of these lines that i just drew. You know i think it will go below 20 thousand dollars. I have it here, going all the way down to 8 000. That might be a little bit aggressive lets just say we get down into like i dont know: 18 000 now im really being forced to make predictions.

I dont really know i think itll be in the teens im just going to say 17 just for the sake of um. You know drawing here so all of the stuff that i just drew im actually going to leave this on here for a while, because i want to see you know if this, if this, if this plays out over a long enough time, so i think we are Going to kind of crawl down here were going to get into this low place. You know, then, were going to get to the having have an expansion, a reaccumulation, and then i think that we will see you know more kind of accumulations distributions getting us back up into. If you look at this, this is 245 000 bitcoin, like thats a big payday. If you stick around, if you hang on to your you hang onto your bags, i have no doubt that its going to be the same psychology were going to. You know continue this sort of uh distribution and accumulation pattern, so i dont know where the market will be at. You know fool me once fool me twice fool me three times you fool me once yeah, you cant, you cant fool me again. Well see, you know the wizardness of the market, but i would anticipate if im just drawing lines on a chart that we would see. You know above 100, 000 above 200, 000 bitcoin in the next market cycle, but it requires the building of these causes.

To kind of load that spring okay, how about in the short term lets talk really quickly about that, because this is something that i do think is really interesting. Lately lets lets pop over here to another chart. Lets look at lets, try and find one thats, a little less messy. I dont know if thats possible so heres. My other chart that i was drawing predictions on previously and i was pretty happy about this one. I talked about that in the last video and i kind of ended there, but um okay lets go to the daily view and i want to bring up the 6th of june, so heres june 6th right here right before this big dive. All these purple candles here thats, my my chart – purple is red right, so heres, the sixth and then this big dive uh. I recorded a video that i didnt post its something i do a lot ill try and be better about posting. More of these tell me in the comments, if you think i should post more, it just makes me feel loved, but i took a screenshot of this image here. Lets see uh, where is preview, okay cool, so this is from kingfisher uh, the kingfisher dot io. This is a site that cello in the crypto garden has turned me on to. He does videos every week for the crypto garden youtube channel hes talking in the discord. If you want to really get buddy buddy with some smart people in crypto, the crypto garden were still were still up and running uh, so the kingfisher.

This is showing us uh densities of liquidations in crypto exchanges, and so this is from the six. Then i recorded a video where i was looking at this and saying: okay. Well, we know that the market is really just a game of taking peoples, money, wiping people out heres where the heres, where the liquidations are, and if you look theres a few that are high, you know getting back up into the 45 000. You know theres some pockets of these liquidations, where, if the market were to run up to 36 000, it would liquidate some of these shorts that are all hanging out up here. But if you look at where the density is its lower uh, you know three. Thirty thousand dollars: twenty seven thousand twenty four thousand dollars, twenty one thousand dollars heres what the density is, and so in the last video that i recorded that i didnt post i probably should have. This is what i was saying my my thought was: is we might kind of come up here and you know kind of flirt with taking out maybe 36.. You know thats a pretty big move, its a lot easier if youre looking for liquidity to go lower and thirty thousand twenty seven thousand dollars, twenty four thousand twenty one thousand dollars and sure as thats, exactly where weve gotten to weve gotten all the way down to The twenty thousand dollar range all of this liquidity, all of these long positions that have been open.

All of these stop losses. All of the you know, trading on leverage um. This is just that that that supply of liquidity that allows the market to continue to move those market makers theyre always needing to recoup on the positions that they allowed to open. So they have the supply, the liquidity, to continue making the market and playing the game. So more and more, this is what im coming to check out just to see. Where is the liquidity? Where is price going to go next to kind of wipe people out and con continue playing this game and a week ago on the sixth? It was all in exactly these ranges that we have now uh just kind of plummeted through, so i dont see crypto as much as this space where um you know its purely narrative driven. These are the scarcest assets on earth. Everyone wants some or oh, my gosh. The world is imploding, the sky is falling, its all over crypto is done. Yada yada. I see that again as these two sides of either you know getting people to buy in at the worst time or to let go of their bags or get liquidated at the worst times to keep this game going. Um lets talk just the first second about this religion of bitcoin. I had a friend that i sat down with, and they were asking you know is bitcoin what michael saylor says it is. I heard this podcast with michael saylor hes.

Just sure this is the most valuable asset on planet earth and its. You know the future is bitcoin. I have a lot more to say about this ill, probably record a second video, but for now ill just say um. You know i was sort of drinking the kool aid earlier and now, when i read stuff like this heres, a page of michael saylor quotes and michael saylor goes around saying that bitcoin is a swarm of cyber hornets, serving the goddess of wisdom, feeding on the fire Of truth, exponentially growing ever smarter, faster and stronger behind a wall of encrypted energy. When i hear this kind of im looking for the exits, if this is the high priest on the altar of crypto, i feel like this is such a disconnected reality from the truth of a market thats here to make money that is being invaded by smart institutions Who know what theyre doing? I think this is exactly the kind of stuff that gets people to drink the kool aid, make foolish mistakes and then get really scared when that cyber honey is back down around twenty thousand dollars and its lost sixty eighty percent of its value uh. Since you first heard the sermon, so im gon na talk a bit more about this, because it is a point of frustration for me that people like plan b, these experts in the space clearly have no idea how a market works. Why its moving? What its doing theyll go on social media, again, marketing marketing for crypto marketing for michael saylor in markle in michael saylors reality.

The only way this comes true, if hes, if hes out there evangelizing for it, the two are not separate. Bitcoin is not cyber energy. Unless theres people like michael saylor out there convincing the world that it is because the value of anything is only and always what you can get someone else to pay you for it so ill leave it at that. Remember, if you want to book time with me, do an uncomplication session around whatever it is youre working on.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3DjmC8S1Dk