The flagship crypto has plunged nearly 70 from its all time. High last november, meantime ether sits nearly 80 below its record high, so wheres the bottom line. We got to go to bk on this um. You have been short bitcoin. Where do you stand now? I am still short, not as short as i used to be, but i am still short. So what we have going on here is cryptos 2008 moment that very similar things happen in crypto. That happened during the great financial crisis and what we still have is collateral that was pledged in multiple different areas. That is now impaired, leverage upon leverage upon leverage, distressed buyers and that combination has not been cleared yet. So until that is cleared, it is going to be hard for crypto to bottom, and i just dont think its here. There is also um. I dont want to say an implosion, but a contraction in in the money backing up start sort of bitcoin related firms. Cryptocurrency firms im wondering how that plays out in that there arent as many developers, maybe developing platforms, developing applications um using these networks and these platforms, and maybe that doesnt help uh. You know the cryptocurrencies themselves right yeah. I mean when you think, when i think about cryptocurrencies its a network effect thats, really what youre buying here, similar to how youre buying facebook, early and thinking okay, at some point, theyre going to have a billion users youre buying, crypto and thinking at some point.

Theres going to be a billion users, but if you get in an environment like this, where everybodys been been hurt during this downturn, and you have people being laid off and theres, not venture capital money to have the new products thats going to hurt your network effect. Now, to be clear, i do have a very bullish view over the next five to ten years on bitcoin its just we have to get through this period of time before we can say all right. All clear, yeah, essentially bk obviously wrote the book in 2014. He has clearly forgotten more than ill ever know, but ill say this and weve been pretty steadfast bitcoin was created. In my opinion, this fear that central banks run amok and they were right to create it. On the back of that, these bitcoin bowlers out there they never saw central banks, try to be responsible until november of last year, and i dont think its coincidental at all that bitcoin topped out the same time our federal reserve pivoted. Now, when you see the swiss national bank out of nowhere seemingly raise rates and now global central banks raising rates that speaks to them, trying to be responsible, not coincidental, now bitcoin is seeing levels we havent seen in three years. These central banks will pivot. At some point i think bk agrees with that and when they do, that to me will be the green light to get into bitcoin. So dan earlier bk revealed that he bought some ether, ethereum and so im wondering um.

You know what what will make you bk step in and put some money to work and buying cryptocurrencies versus the positions that you currently have yeah yeah. So i, i think theres theres, two things that im looking for number one is what guy just said. Some sort of panic and or pivot on the uh on the front of the central banks, thats number one or something or them doing something that just breaks markets. Then you need an alternative currency. What theyre doing right now, particularly with the bank of japan, is absolutely choosing. You know: uh to fight inflation at the expense, uh fight, inspiration at the expense of their currencies, uh and theyre torching their currencies so um. That is a catalyst. So i need that to happen. I need central banks to panic and say wait. We need growth now, all of a sudden and then number two. I need this this this leverage to be flushed out of the system, um and well, probably see that you know i. I dont know, but if i had to guess right now, you know maybe 15 000 on bitcoin is probably a place where id start to look and say: did the leverage get blushed out and how close were the central banks panicking, hey bk its karen? You had talked a couple of weeks ago about not wanting to get long bitcoin until you felt like the nasdaq sell off was over. Do you have a particular level in mind that would make you be a bitcoin buyer yeah? So so, right now, based on my my particular valuation model, um between 12 to 18, 000 is kind of a fair value, or i should say that is a a cheap value for bitcoin, based on the network effect so somewhere around those levels.

Now whats interesting is most of the year. The correlation between bitcoin and the nasdaq has been running at 80 percent.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXkO1FhbMkU