I i scared the out of some people this morning when i went outside for the first time in like five days since i got my surgery so ill scare, you as well and now lets go scare each other with the price action. No just kidding weve been looking for this. Obviously weve now hit one of the uh targets that were looking for actually coming into early next week already over on saturday. So how does that kind of change the picture if at all, coming into next week and without uh yeah without saying anything else? Oh yes, i do want to once again show my instagram ive been doing a lot of content over there, both trading related and also you know other stuff as well. So you may not be really uh. Sorry interested in stuff, like that ive also been doing like amas as well, which ill probably do one today or tomorrow, um, just because um, you know market updates on you know in that sort of event. Youre, just really really easy to do when theres not like a whole hell of a lot of new things to be speaking about to you know, do a full on youtube video, but uh. But theres still, you know just general uh chit chat to be had anyways lets just jump into it right now and waste no more time and lets start it off with um lets start off with cme uh, because cme already closed the weekly on friday.

And how does this influence things to come? Well, cme did close below the ever highly esteemed 200 moon average on the weekly, which is that white moving image right here and so that whole mimi has been destroyed, as we said was likely, which is like bitcoin, has never never closed below the 200 simple. This is the bind opportunity of a lifetime its like, obviously, not man at some point, yeah its gon na be broken. You know, uh moving averages ranges supporting resistance, theyre all made to be broken, of course, and this is no different right here on volume. I should add nonetheless, so what does this essentially imply to go forwards here? Basically, as long as bitcoins below it, which is about 22 and a half thousand? Maybe you know if you want to be super lenient? 23. 000 bucks, um pressure remains to the downside. Well say: to put it uh lightly: yeah thatll be a nice way of putting it, meaning that any sort of a bounce towards that region very likely is just that a bounce before um, further downside targets. Do you get initiated so now that weve gotten that out of the way i want to talk about the shorter term timeframes for bitcoin over here as um on cme? Specifically, i believe we were looking at this yeah. We were looking at this as a descending tron. Yesterday, that did have a targeted breakdown somewhere into the mid 18 000 region, weve kind of were kind of already seeing that already on uh spot price action so seeing that cme isnt trading over the weekend, so it hasnt actually done.

This move, as well, were probably going to see it do something similar. Maybe a little bit lower as well coming into next week, may even hit the potential even hit the bottom side of this blue box over here, as well, also in the short term timeframes. We do see ever so slightly positive funny rates, but anytime that we have seen funding rates that are opposite of the dominant trend. In this case, dominant trend is down. Funny rates are ever so slightly up its been a really really consistent indicator and actually just getting the uh the start of the dumbbell parties for what its worth were. Also seeing the global open interest reset to the levels that weve been speaking about. So all the people who are talking saying the the the the open interest flush yeah i mean it actually happened. So there we go vindication is uh is good anyways. I need to get off that topic, because that is just um. Well, who cares its? Neither here? No there but yeah. I do believe that it does go lower before we have um. You know a nice little base being set yet again to work off of anyways without uh, without getting to be too deep into that or lost in that lets. Go back on over here lets: go into uh spot price action and yes, that uh that descending triangle, you know the targeted move off, that the measure move off, that a little bit lower.

Actually, a little bit in the deeper end of the 18 000 region got closer to like 18, 200 or so, but ultimately i do expect this move to. You know probably continue into next week, um uh monday, tuesday. That is on top of that. We do see shorter term timeframe, bbwp expanding still, so i expect this to hit another extreme actually, which likely implies that, based off of our momentum, monsters, of which we got another drive of hitting bearish divers over here, you know more downside is more likely for our Jewel also downside angled, and if we go reference our four hour still cast moment to monster, it will be pivoted around 19500. So in this case, i do think that uh as on the short term temperatures i have over here, 19 500 or if you want to be super exact more like 19 uh, 600 gon na be a short term time frame range high. That is to say that, as long as bitcoins below there, you know, i do essentially look for uh im, basically looking at that as a range high before trading sideways and probably trying another downside move now this, as always, comes with an invalidation. You know what happens if im massively wrong. This is a major amount of bear trap and uh bitcoins gon na bulldoze its green builders up to the heavens and beyond. Well, at minimum, we need to see bitcoin close at minimum like minimum minimum minimum hourly back above the breakdown level here, which was about thousand two hundred, preferably you know, even a four hour would be much better than that uh, let alone a higher term time frame.

But yeah thatll probably do the job in this case and uh at that point. Yeah, probably looking at a run back up somewhere around 22 to 23 and then well come back to it after that and see uh and assess whats kind of changed over here. Anyways other than that um, i did want to follow up on this chart over here as well, because this one has been giving us. The downside buys alongside these targets, and it is of course everyones favorite chart right. The daily stochastic momentum versus bbwp volatility, chart of which ill go through the explanation again, basically anytime, that weve uh seen daily bbwp, which is a volatility indicator measuring the dispersion, returns, get below 10 percentile. The expansion phase from those extreme lows has led to an average move about 23.63 theres, been a lot of variance in those uh moves. Those um where we have seen moves you know as great as even 40 um a couple times in bitcoins history. Over the past few years here so in this case uh, obviously you know we said that this was likely yesterday. Bitcoin probably goes for the greater end of that c announce we did have much lower volatility levels for longer i mean its not that theyre lower. I mean they like zero percent. Zero percent – alright, but they are lower for longer, is what im trying to say so theyre comparable to some of the more extremes that weve seen back on over here, of which those have been.

You know bigger moves so to speak, and in this case, if we were to just kind of shave off um 40 from that high uh, where things started to expand. Where does that put bitcoin basically around the mid 18 000 region, which again, we can get wix lower somewhere around 18 000 bucks as well? I also do believe that there is a cme gap over here, um yeah, right around 18.5, so anywhere between about 18 lets. Just call it 18 000 bucks give or take 500 just because uh, who knows where a wick lands in one of these stray situations. Um is kind of where were looking for on this, and then also of great interest is two other things. The average days that we have observed in the past for this move to play out has been 13 or just above 13 days. This move started on june, the 6th, so we are actually 12 days now, um, just just at 12 days from the expansion time of that. Obviously, cme is not trading over the weekend. So while it is very much comparable here, i do think that this move very likely tries again coming into early next week, so perhaps over the weekend you know we might i mean it might continue from here. I might trade a little bit sideways, but ultimately, what i feel a lot more confident saying is that next week, monday tuesday, especially tuesday – probably do you see a continuation move here? Why tuesday? Well, in my experience in traditional markets, when you get a long weekend, which we have a long weekend right now its a three day weekend, uh for us markets, i know that that sounds silly because, like oh ameri, oh america, just america, just america just runs the Whole world you stupid crown dont, you know theres other countries.

I dont know why. I did that in the redneck voice. Itd, obviously be like a be like a posh british voice like dont, you know crown there are other countries in the world yeah. Well, they dont matter as much huh. Sorry, sorry just kidding, okay, its just a bad attempt of humor all right, thats it okay, you can make fun of my head. Alright, its all good anyways. My point is: is that when you see you know what is you know technically the world leader as of right now in terms of currency, as it is the dominant currency, the dollar that is uh, the us markets? Do you get to run things typically and when you do get a three day weekend in my experience in traditional markets, if you sell off on the friday leading into that weekends, then typically, what happens is over the weekend? All the news and media stories start coming out. People start freaking out, you know they start reading about three euros: capital and okay ive been reading about that, so its like its absolutely insane um celsius. Oh, you know all these things, it doesnt even matter, and then they start freaking out right and because they cant trade over the weekend, because u.s marks are closed. What do they do they freak out and then they represent that freak out by well capitulating, typically on uh on open, which would be tuesday in this case, where futures open up uh monday and i think actually cme – will trade monday as well uh.

But still you know look, this is trading with traditional markets, obviously its funny to me that people put so much weight on 3ac and uh and celsius, and all these other things when um its like to totally discount that bitcoin has not been, and crypto has not Been correlated traditional marks, which have been doing basically the same thing this whole time i mean maybe im missing some over here, um anyways. Perhaps i am definitely possible. Let me know in the comment section below, of course anyways in this case you know the average days. I do think its gon na be probably on the upper end of that, so i do think its reasonable to say that we probably do see this move continue into next week and probably find uh. You know something resembling a short term low, not a reversal. I wouldnt certainly not call that as of right now or anytime soon – um, you know maybe around like mid to end of next week, anyways. To put it bluntly, as long as this condition is met over here, pressure remains to the downside, downside targets still, you know very likely get met somewhere, maybe even as low as 17 and a half thousand dollars before a nice little uh try for it for a Bounce, which is the daily straps mental monster, on cme, uh being below twenty three thousand six, basically seven hundred in this case now, because cme is not trading over the weekend, we could use spot price action to get a a bias on on how extreme things are, And it would be showing a pivot at 19 200, so something to keep in mind as well, for maybe a little bit of a short term.

Try for a bounce uh, but ultimately 19.6, basically is the short term timeframe range highs. So as long as bitcoins below there, you know just it, doesnt really doesnt really mean anything for higher term timeframes. Obviously, risk remains the downside again, to put it uh bluntly anyways. We are 10 minutes into this video. Is there anything else that i want to be saying about this um um um, i think thats just about it uh and then also kind of um. Judging the end of this move, uh and also kind of on the side that says hey, i dont think that weve seen it just yet is daily bbwp um at minimum minimum. I need to see the moving average get below the bbwp itself and obviously cme is not trading over the weekend, but you can see that uh its you know its its still got at least another day before it kind of meets up with that. If we go and reference spot price action, they are almost there uh. The moving average is about half a percentile lower than where the bbwp is itself. So we probably do start to see that um, you know happen around like tuesday, wednesday or so so something to keep an eye on if youre trying to time something like this and tell them risk remains to the downside, um. I still think downside targets probably get further met over here and longer term, which were not talking about on this video right now, um.

You know i do think that its its its relevant as we expressed yesterday on this chart to entertain you know much greater downside targets, but we wont talk about that on this particular video well get to that on tomorrows video actually talk about some fun stuff over There anyways, i think, thats a good place for me to leave off. I just want to remind um. I just want to remind everyone as well that i uh uploaded a video earlier this week, titled something like how to actually make money leveraged trading on. I believe bitget um, that video is literally a step by step, uh tutorial on how to create a trading plan. We even go over like a very basic one test that trading plan and then apply that trading plan, which i think is the most important thing to be speaking about whether youre you know trading on leverage, whether youre trading on spot doesnt matter. If you, if you havent, already done this, i just dont think that trading is at least in my experience, wise again im not trying to be your dad here. But i do think that in these sort of particular situations now that things are not just or they havent been straight up, you know this is at least in my experience. The only way that ive found to actually make a living out of using these sort of tools or any sort of tools for that matter and uh putting them into a working plan.

So i go through about a 20 minute example of that uh for you over there. If you happen to give a if you dont, thats all good as well, but that video is there for you as well as a uh, a link to bitget, actually, which is an exchange that ive been working with, of course, full disclosure. You know i am working with them, so you know its uh its it. This is not but or this is not unbiased, obviously, but they do have a link which i believe i have in the description below as well. That does give like um, i think, its a 10 to 10 deposit bonus and 50 15 uh reduction in trading fees um for anyone who signs up in like the next week or so and itll be applied at the end of next week. I believe anyways thats enough shilling for right now, uh the main thing is instagram, obviously, because thats just an easier place to kind of keep up with ill be signing off.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2s7O_HVMv_I