I was telling myself that this market crypto bitcoin its getting more mature theres institutions getting involved theres, so many people active in the space now theres just no way it can have another bear market like its done in the past. All along ive been anticipating about a sixty to seventy percent draw down from the top, but here we are now over 70. The writing was on the wall and i was very public about saying. If bitcoin broke down from 40 000 bucks, the market phase had changed. Things are going to be different, but even still ive been buying. Some bitcoin for my long term account so in this video im going to be talking about the long long term. Big picture of cryptocurrency im also going to be touching on trading because i have been calling it a traders market from all the way back in december, so theres a lot to cover so lets just get into it. Im, not a financial advisor, so everything i say is general information and for education and entertainment purposes. Only trading and investing is incredibly risky, so you must always do your own. Due diligence seek your own professional help and guidance before making any decision in the market and past results are not indicative of future performance. So what ive got up on the screen now is bitcoin on the monthly chart. I am looking at blx because this has the most data, so we could really assess all of the bear markets since bitcoin did come into inception and what we can see is theres just around a 70 to 95 drawdown on every time.

Theres been a bear market. So, if bitcoin already down around 71 and closing on that final support being that cycle top from all the way back in 2017 theres every chance it could break through and do a repeat of one of these previous bear market cycles being 75 85 or even 95 Percent, so if bitcoin already fallen so far, theres every chance, it could actually do a repeat of one of those previous bear market cycles, and you can see what that means in terms of price if it does break down and hit one of those old targets. 85 percent gets bitcoin down to around 10 grand, so thats 85 from the top all the way down to 10 grand, whereas 90 puts bitcoin down to 7 grand and 95 all the way down to three and a half grand should bitcoin and crypto break down its Going to be a pretty dire situation for a lot of people, but it is a matter of having a plan to be able to execute if and when it does come, because i can promise you the fear that you think youve seen now is going to be Tenfold if it does continue to break down to those lower prices, many of you will also know ive been following a mathematical based long term strategy, where im planning to turn my five thousand dollar account into well over six figures by the end of the next cycle. Now, obviously, here we are in the middle of a bear market and the strategy is based on at least me having the faith that bitcoin ethereum cryptocurrency is going to stick around through the next cycle, its not going to zero.

I do have the belief that crypto will survive through this bear market and there will be another cycle, so thats kind of the premise i needed to work off for that investment strategy, and i still stand by that. But if you do recall from that strategy, bitcoin ethereum, the bottom rung on that pyramid plan in terms of you know, multiplying my account and investing into the market thats pretty much where crypto is now bitcoin at 20, grand and ethereum around that thousand dollars. So, in terms of my strategy, this is the last buying point. Ive got on that pyramid plan to really build a position before the market will eventually, hopefully take off again, but it doesnt mean i dont have just a blind faith in that. I need to have a plan of what happens if the price does continue to crash and, like ive mentioned on some of that series im looking at about a 30 drop from that last point from 20 grand and also a thousand bucks, so thatll put bitcoin down To around 14 grand and ethereum down to 700 bucks thats the time i need to reassess those plans and decide if im going to be dumping all of my crypto or not, because things have changed and its not what i anticipated would happen now what you can Also see on the screen is a mystery box, where really? What im looking at here is how much further the market can fall from its current position down to these next targets, in terms of the worst case, bear markets and just as im sure many lunar holders know that the price can keep falling 90 percent 90.

90. No matter where its from, but what were looking at here in terms of you know, price drops from the current level if the price was to fall from this 20 grand down to an 85 percent bear market from the peak thats still a further. Fifty percent drop from the current price, if also dropped ninety percent from the peak that would be putting it at another, sixty five percent drop, so any dollar invested. Now, if we are to see a bear market equivalent to a ninety percent drop from the peak, it would still be a 65 loss on any dollar thats invested at around 20 000 bucks and if bitcoin was put in the worst bear market in history, eclipsing. What it had previously done, when it first came about itd, be putting in an 82 drop from the current price, putting in a low around 3 500 bucks, which is pretty much equal to the last bear market low and also the covert crash. So in terms of how bad things can get not including crypto bitcoin going to zero and never recovering thats about as bad as it can possibly get, but, like i said earlier in the video back in december six months ago, i started calling this a traders market. It was not the market to be investing in because the market structure had changed now. Here we are on the brink of breaking down from another support level. Short traders have been making an absolute killing, and i have put a learn, crypto series out where i talk about leverage short trading, all the usual bits and pieces that come part and parcel with the market, not because i want anyone to go out and trade short Or go with leverage because it is extremely dangerous and for people who have some experience, but just so people are aware of whats going on in this space.

Now, for a little bit of hoping for you with how bad this market could get, or at least how long it could take before we do see some kind of final low, what im going to show you now is the previous bear markets or previous cycles, where The macro monthly trend did turn down and how long it took to get to a final low. If you are interested in this indicator, ill leave a link in the description below, so you can learn about the swing chart trends when the trends turn up and down to hopefully remove some of that noise out of your trading. Investing and technical analysis make sure you check out that video in the description below where i explain the indicator and how it works. But what we can see is when the background is red, the trend is down, but what im paying attention to now is how long it took before the market put in a final low after the trend turned down, we can see back in 2014 what it took From that first downward trend to the final low it only took about three months. It was about three months from the trend. Turning down to that final low, it did take a few more months before it recovered, but its really that final drop into the low that im paying attention to now im not really paying attention to this. First time that the trend did turn down.

We have incomplete data and its going back to the very inception, so im really taking note from the previous bear markets from that point forward and what were looking at now is the next one where the trend first turned down. The final low came just six months later and obviously thats six months. It can feel like a long time, but then we look at the next covered crash, slow. It was only one month, so we have three months from a downtrend to a low six months from a downtrend to a low and then one month from a downtrend to a low. So, if were looking at the current market, how long this could take when the market first turned into a downtrend to the final low thats, going back all the way from may into around november, so thats going to give us our six month time period for when We could be seeing you know the final low, so at least that six months gives us a rough time frame from the downtrend to a low, and that will also be a full one year. Bear market from peak to trough and that fits in with some other timing analysis as for price thats, another story and, as you can see from the previous bear markets, if we do repeat one of those 85 or even up to 95 percent youre gon na see Exactly what that means in terms of price from the peak, but since it has been a traders market from december ive been talking a lot about trading on the channel.

What were going to look at now is where that final support is around that 20 grand and what it could look like in terms of some trading activity. Now i can almost promise you short traders are going to be trying to load up as much as possible on a breakdown from that 20k thats, because it is a macro support level and typically speaking, markets can start to freefall after breaking significant support levels. But if you did watch my video yesterday, i highlighted a common shakeout fake out pattern that can happen when we do see some kind of low or support in the market, and i still do stand by that and i do think it could be playing out. So if you want more information about what that pattern is make sure you go back and watch my video from yesterday, but essentially we could be seeing something like this green pattern here, where the market will dump short traders will try and load up at least the Unknown short traders and they try and hold a bit too long and dont take profits, and what can happen from that point forward? Is the market snaps back now the analysis ive been putting out for the last couple of days about technical reasons for some significant support, which is why we have seen support in the market over the last few days that still stands and if we do see some Kind of pattern, this kind of shakeout recovery pattern.

I remain bullish to think we are going to be seeing more support and at least some kind of bounce from this point forward. What would be more bearish on the market is if the price does dump break, that support level, get something like a lower top and once again, you can use the swing indicator ill, leave a link in the description below to see what im talking about in terms Of swing tops, if we do see something like that, and this goes for ethereum and other markets too. We could be seeing further downside in the market and this downtrend continuing now, if you are one of those who have been upping, your trading skills and you want to put them to the test. Buybit are having the world series of trading competition coming up where theres eight million dollars of prizes to give away. If you want to join me and jasons squad, join crypto, hobos ill leave a link in the description below, and you can get yourself up to 4. 100 and sign up bonuses, depending how much you deposit so as always, theres a lot going on in the markets right now, short traders are still winning this game and i can promise you. Traders were all getting really excited about the next time. There is another breakdown and a lot more volatility coming into the market. As for the longer term, investing you can see some of the worst case scenarios of what could be coming up based on previous bear markets, like i showed earlier in this video, and as always, it is a matter of managing risk and not putting your financial health At risk thats about all ive got for you today.

I still do have that little bit of hoping, which i shared yesterday and also touched on today. If you did enjoy this video, you know what to do and until next time ill catch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9vDziYj3aQ