Bitcoin Historical 15.24% Price Signal & What To Expect This Week
We speak about as well, which im rather excited about make some more fun for me, of course, and hopefully, for you out there as well and uh and yeah without further ado lets, actually just jump right into it. Oh, i would like to once again aggressively politely. Maybe even uh show my own instagram account ive been doing a lot of like morning update morning, walk thoughts on bitcoin actually and then sometimes later on the day as well. If you know, if its, if needed and of course, other life – lifestyle stuff there too. So i understand thats not gon na be for everyone, but if that does interest you, there is a link in the description below for exactly that, be aware of any other accounts. That might look like that because they are not me. I only have one account and it is that link in the description below all right cool. So i want to start off right today with the heavy hidden content, the new stuff of what well all all of its actually new um, oh and by the way, the short term timeframes. Yes, we did resolve the short term timeframe range highs at 19.6 with that targeted region back up to um uh, just just around 21 000 bucks kind of where bitcoin put in its high. I think last night or yesterday, whatever it was anyways here – is the new stuff. So you all remember – or you probably remember this chart over here this right over here – talking about the volatility versus momentum on the extreme expansions from extreme low volatility conditions, so that moves already played out we play or we not.
No, not we but bitcoin played that out just about as perfectly as you can uh in the a lot of time frame as well. I think about 14 days 15 days now, um, so all good right there. So now the big focus is on the next mean reversion play so heres the thing i would not say that bitcoin exactly has its current lows in for this exact moment. The reason why i say that is because over the weekend, obviously cme was not trading. Nor was traditional markets, so they have yet to see that puke that i think that they probably will do once we get u.s market open tomorrow. Not today, of course, today is a holiday, its a new holiday learned about that from the comment section yesterday, its called juneteenth, which is great man, um anyways in this case right here, uh, it completely depends upon where we see the actual low first. So if bitcoin uh does once again puke towards around its current lows, lets say like 18 000, maybe a little bit below there, maybe a little bit above. There is all fair game once us markets open up tomorrow, i dont have a strong opinion on that. Well, go over short term timeframes a little bit later, and maybe that can provide a bit of insight into that, but for right now, um. What i want to talk about is whats likely to happen after that. So were looking really um around end of week.
Maybe even beginning of next week, this is what the preparation is for and its the mean reversion play. That typically happens after not typically, but only happens after that initial signal that we saw over here on the extreme low volatility condition play. So what am i essentially talking about, or can i go over the signal? Of course i can so what im talking about, for example, is uh is best shown in actually the last example that we did see. We saw the volatility expansion from here extreme lows to extreme highs, blah blah blah blah that one played out again like exactly. I was predicting. No, of course not exactly, as predicted were only looking at statistics and probabilities, nothing else, nothing more theres, no guessing or sorry, not guessing, but predictions and like that cant be done. Only statistics amount. You know either either works or doesnt anyways. Sorry going a little bit crazy on that um. So what am i talking about? Well, after we get that extreme move, the contraction phase that happens after it does produce a mean reversion play more often than not significantly more often than i should say, and in this case right here we do see and a great example of it where the daily Bbwp on cme starts to trend down, gets a negative slope and gets below the moving specifically as well once that happens. That constitutes a signal, a pretty obvious signal. In this case, you can see right here, as i mark it off.
You will notice that the low to next high was about 16.5, so thats. How i generated this data. I did it for the last 11 iterations on this chart and theyve been pretty consistent, actually um. What i found was uh based off the statistics. The average mean reversion play was about fifteen spot two, four percent done over the course about eleven and a half days still casting tomorrow got three got the correct direction: um 82 percent of the time. Okay. So what does that mean for our current price action? Well, daily scotts momentum monster is way the down there, probably not going to turn up today, although i guess i could its really not too far, but but 21 000 bucks, but ultimately, im, probably looking for something like this to be fair. There we go, you know, get a little bit of divergence in there too um, but something like that probably around again, like i said earliest end of this week, maybe beginning of next week. Although timing, never really my thing and then the meme reversion play completely depends upon what the low is before we get that signal on this current one over here again. The reason why i dont think that this is happening today or tomorrow, for that matter, is that we still see the bbwp itself well above the moving average. Its gon na take at least a two uh at least two days, um it yeah at least two days.
Minimum id imagine for the bbwp to be below the moving average and then probably another day for it to get a negative slopes that gives you like thursday friday. I imagine so again can bitcoin. You know re test our current lows from over the weekend, maybe even a little bit lower possible yes, but if we were to play around with numbers right here, this one, i think, is rather interesting. If we do assume that our current low on cme is the actual low uh, well whats 15 and a quarter percent from our current lows right here, that puts bitcoin at about um, 22, 6, 20, basically, 22.8 close to 23 000 bucks thats. A very interesting number. Simply because if we go over here to the weekly for cme thats, exactly where the weekly tournaments of moon image is, which is the last mimi to be broken now, i actually dont really consider it broken myself. I dont really consider a moving average support. Um support broken unless you do one of two things open and close below it in this case or have three consecutive closes below it um, so you know it could very easily be that it does reclaim it and then does a major amount of bear trap. I think thats, like the ultimate opium im, not saying thats whats likely to happen right here, not again saying thats whats likely to happen right here. But hey you know if you do want some opium thats, probably what it looks like um but anyways in this case.
Right here, youll probably get a chance to retest that maybe even close above it, and if that happens then maybe the opium case does uh does actually have some merit to it, or at least you know, another run up somewhere around like 28 to 29 – definitely possible, But, of course, that would assume that our current low is the low if the short term timeframes give out which were going to talk about conditions for confirming that later today, and we do see another move towards lets say even like you know: low 18, 000 region. 15, move only brings you back up towards 21.5 000 bucks. So you know thats not too helpful for right now. Anyways um uh again well be updating this as the week goes on. Obviously, and now we can go into the short term timeframes over here and go down here. Yes, there we go and a few things to be aware of so for right now, on cme were still an hour and ‘ minutes and 23 seconds left to go uh. There is potential phantom bullish divergence going on right here for bitcoin. In fact, one two three drives being built up: pretty aggressive, drives right there to be fair as well, if bitcoin can really realistically close like here or higher um, so its a long two hours left to go and what should be known on the other side is That spot price action is completely different picture, as we do see potential hidden, bearish events being plotted in right here, which will be confirmed if bitcoin closes below the range lows at 19.
6, even on an hourly, so bitcoin comes back down and closes on an hourly below 19600, yes, i would call this another confirmed local high, plus, hidden bearish divergence, plus stochastic momentum on the four hour for cme would actually still be to the downside, because that would be below 20 000 bucks and obviously spot price action as well, which is showing 19 450 well close enough in this case here too, so keep in mind that pivot as long as bitcoins above it. Well, i guess the hoping for short term rally. Continuation does um does remain uh short term rally. Continuation um, uh, hope, uh upside targets would be basically one the high from im guessing. This is its actually one. Am i time so the high of the day right here, i guess already, have it in there and then bitcoin even closes an hour. They dont above there. I would actually look for it to extend, maybe even close to twenty two thousand bucks somewhere around twenty one, seven to twenty one, eight, fifty or so um, and then we can maybe even see continuation from there. Maybe even the the mean version play starts to happen from there definitely possible. So in this case right here uh, it all kind of depends on how bitcoin resolves the very short term time for range and yeah. Do you think that hourlies are okay to use in this case, although, as always, you know short term uh, sorry, four hour time frame is probably gon na, be better but uh again, thats gon na be a 20 20.
What is this? Twenty thousand? Eight hundred to the upside versus uh, nineteen, six to the downside and, of course, still cast momentum basically pivots around both of those levels on cme and on spot, which is actually rather funny, and we have uh potential bullish. Averages versus potential hitting bearish turbines continued upon the validation of those conditions as well now heres the other thing um for maybe a little bit of a slight edge to the upside, although this did not work yesterday for the first time in a while. For the first time in, like a very very long time, actually the funny rates we do see the funny rates are negative right here, so shorts are paying long. Typically, that has been a you know, decent ish for the day signal um to try some more upside. So fair enough, um, yeah anyways. I think that actually pretty much does it yeah that pretty much? Does it actually for me right now, um so yeah, the you know, the big things that im looking at is main version play um. I suspect that starts to happen. This week, um so yeah uh, thats gon na probably be the next next big thing that im looking for and if bitcoin does have to. You know trade. Its way back above, like 23 000 bucks and close dailies above there, you know, were – were gon na see a much greater extension on that move. Uh if that were to happen.
Basically, what im trying to say is that i think that the downside is mostly done for now. Yes, maybe we get another re test of the lows again. If um you know, bitcoin does come back down and violate 19600. I would look in front of the move somewhere around like at least mid 18s – maybe even low 18, something like that, like 18 500 to 18, 000, even um, but uh but yeah, you know again, i do think thats um. The general downside was a little bit overdone here and probably were looking at a bounce first before anything else. Im not calling any macro lows, theres, absolutely no way to do that until we actually get. You know a full on macro reversal, which is not happening any time soon, because you need both like a higher high and a higher low. Even just a higher low would be good enough for me at this point, but hey uh. You know no no sense in front running that as far as this goes so i will be signing off. On that note, i hope that this one serves you well. I should actually uh. Oh. I also wanted to point out this as well um. I also put up a video that im really really proud of last week, its basically a video about how to one uh create a strategy like go through the strategy. Checklist then back test that strategy and then, if you so desire, apply that strategy, of course um it was titled.
Some clickbait title like how i think it was how to actually make money on bit. Get it if you, if you search that in or if you just look through my channel and you see um that video from last week should be quite obvious, its right there for you.