We have convincingly closed below the tournament sma. If we zoom in on that candle on the bitcoin index chart here, we can see a clear cut. What is that maybe whats lets say the percentage here as an eight percent close below the twenty guesstimate weve seen uh a two percent close below before that wasnt convincing right? It was just a little fake out. This is an eight percent, close youre not going to get much clearer than that. That is a breakdown, so we have made history. History has been made, weve never done this before, and the sad part about it is the scary part about it is. This leaves us completely in the dark about what happens next for bitcoin, because the only indication of where the macro bottom would be for bitcoin was based off of a 200 week sma and now that that is gone lost, gone its its its thrown in the bin. What do we have? Well, we dont have much right. We have speculation, we have blind speculation, thats all it is, and this is why i havent been too confident about my prediction of where the bottom is now you guys know already, i mean ill say it again. Some people might not know whos watching the video for the first time, maybe im not extremely confident about where the bottom will be. I think if i had to guess it would be around 13.5 k to 11.5 k, and i think if i had to guess it would be around q4 right but im not confident, and i dont think anyone can be confident right now because, as i said, the Only macro indication of where the bottom would be has been lost the term week.

Sma was the macro indication its gone now. People like mega well crypto, now, fellow analyst, a friend in the space mega equipped. I do collaborate, videos with him all the time, much respect for him. Hes great analyst would say that hey this trend line is confirming the bottom is in for bitcoin right. He thinks that the bottom is in for bitcoin. He says, even though he thinks of sin. He says fruit, you know by the way, hes not super confident in his prediction, but he does have to say uh its in for bitcoin. He said that he said you should buy it 18k bottles. If a bitcoin and hes pointing to this trend line for bitcoin. That goes straight up on the logarithmic chart now. My problem with this trend line is logarithmic. Chart trend lines have to fail eventually. So if i extend this trendline right and you can see that the next bull market will be in 2025 hes assuming that essentially hes – not assuming i wouldnt – say hes assuming it, i would not say that. But what i would say is that this line cannot simply go on forever. Logarithmic chart lines do not work forever; they fail. Eventually, logarithmic lines need to be curved to adjust for diminished returns. They cant go straight forever, its simply mathematically impossible for the price to keep up with a logarithmic line, and so, assuming that its going to hold here yeah, you can assume that.

But the problem with that as well is that theres only two trend dot points right. Its not exactly a super strong trend line, you have a tape retest here and you have a retest here by the way this second retest didnt happen during the 2018 bottom. It actually happened during a black swan event of a cover drop. Now that doesnt mean its any less relevant, but it is an example of how well you know, for example, in 2015 uh, even in 2015. The bottom was actually in over here before the trend line was re test, but you know hes talking about the second re test on both these occasions. This re test might not have even happened uh if the cover drop didnt occur, and so it does kind of put into question the valve the validity class of that word validity of that trend line. I guess uh and you know, given the fact that its on a logarithmic chart the straight line, the logarithmic chart as well. It kind of does put a little doubt in there and then also adding to that. We have a tournament sma, which weve lost by the way. The tournament sma in my opinion, is much more prominent than this upwards yellow trend line, because the tournament guests may not only mark the macro bottom on both bear market occasions like this trendline did, but the price actually bounced off of it for long periods of time. Right so 10 months there – this is five months over here.

This is a month over here, thats much stronger than this yellow trend line and so losing the tournament guesstimate, which, by the way, is something weve never done before. That is much stronger than the yellow trend line is probably a lot harder to do than losing this. You know relatively weak, yellow trend line that weve only retested twice, and so, given the fact that weve lost a 200 guesstime, which is much much much stronger and a lot more people know about it. I would say its incredibly likely that we lose this yellow trend line. However, you cant hate him right. You cant hate, mega, well uh hes out here, giving solid analysis and saying well. This is a macro trend line. We havent lost and hes right, hes right. We have never lost his trend line before and for that reason it wouldnt be the worst thing to do to take a low risk trade position off of that trend line and then wait for a confirmed breakout. But at this point i dont have much confidence in this trend line. I personally dont think its going to hold uh. To be honest, i dont necessarily think hes super confident in it. Either i mean if he said that the macro situation is terrible and so id respect him for that uh. But what we can say just speaking about the macro situation as well, it is pretty pretty terrible right uh, you know, weve got a macro uh fractal here from the 2008 drop i mean.

If you look at the 2008 correction here, all you need to do is zoom back. Obviously, 2008 was a global financial crisis, as you guys would know uh, and this is what it looked like there right, zooming out, thats what it looked like. You just take a fractal directly from there. You can see already just by looking at this chart, theres intense similarities, and you apply that fractal uh straight into what we have here in 2022 and you can see were following that fractal pretty much bloody perfectly right. I mean we had an upwards run. We had a top right. We had a correction here, a bottom, an upwards run, a double top formation, a w formation kind of uh scalp from the bottom, another top another top another bottom and were kind of plummeting. Now right. So thats very its a very rough guideline, but it is very much playing out and some people say well, you know fractals dont work out very often fractals dont work fractals are unreliable yeah, they are, you know they are unreliable, but occasionally you will find a fractal That does work, and this fractal is 80 completed and guess what its working out pretty bloody well right and if it does continue to work out pretty bloody, well, which again its working out pretty bloody. Well right. Its going to take us all the way down here to around 2800 on the sp 500 using one month, room for error, because fractals are rough guidelines and using 10 room for error were looking at anywhere in this green box.

For the s p, 500 bottom out, which would be anywhere between 3 000 and 2 600 anywhere between august and october, as you guys would know specifically talking about october, i am thinking ive been thinking for a long time based on the four year cycle theory that Q4, which is october, is gon na, be the macro bottom for bitcoin. Now the four year cycle, theorem im gon na get into short term analysis in a second dont worry for your cycle. Theory is based on date, ranges right and so weve got date. Ranges here stemming up throughout the entire history of bitcoin and all of those date ranges are pointing through. You can pause the chart and take a look, its very convincing pointing to around november this year uh. But you know, given that room for error im. Looking at october to december, hence im looking at q4 and given the fact that this fractal on the sp 500 is looking at october. I think october is probably the most likely bottom at this point on bitcoin and again, i think 13.5k to 11.5 k is the most likely price um. But even though im saying all this, you know ive said yesterday i made very clear in yesterdays video. I dont think its physically possible, not physically whatever it is. I dont think its actually possible logically possible to be confident in a bottom prediction right now, due to the fact that we have such a wide variety of evidence, but its all very, very vague right.

Theres. No concrete evidence that were just looking at saying all right, thats going to be the bottom, its going to be on this date and thats very, very likely, no its not like that its like well, this could be the bottom. This could be the date thats kind of its a bit of like uh hit or miss at the moment. So yeah, i think 13.5 k to 11.5 k around october probably would be the bottom. But again you know thats, probably gon na. You know at this point its probably 60 chance of playing up so theres a lot of theres a lot of room for me to be wrong. There im not extremely confident in it and thats. Why? I think that in a bear market, you should be more focused on trying to find a trend reversal point rather than a bottom, and this is where were getting into the short term analysis here and so bitcoin short term analysis. You know it actually does. I guess you could say medium term: it doesnt even look too bad right. It actually doesnt look too bad, and this is where we could get into into a scenario where bitcoin could actually bounce off of this trend line for a little bit right, but ultimately lose it later in the year and come down for a q4 bottom. I think thats entirely possible and i think that will a lot of fake a lot of people out, because a lot of people are obviously looking at this trend line right now, including mega, well right and theyre thinking.

Okay, if we see a bounce here uh, we could see a bull market continuation right. We might see a small bounce, everyone will buy back into the market and then bang crash and well go back down to the ultimate macro bottom, which i think will be at 13.5 k to 11.5 k. Maybe right yeah and the reason why i think a bounce is is, you know, probably a little bit more likely than not. Here is the fact that we have a strong descending channel formation, which is a bullish formation, weve recently retested the bottom of that channel formation. Uh and it would kind of uh, it would make sense for us to see an upswing to the top side of it, at least at around 23.8 k, and then even if we, you know see break to the upside, i would probably go to about 28.6k at The maximum before rejecting uh and then you know, weve got a shorter term. Looking at the even shorter term. Within this, within the descending channel, weve got another descending channel, which is a shorter term bullish pattern. We could see another swing to the down, so i could see a swing to about seven point 17.1 k here and then a break to the upside to around 23.8k or even up to the top of the channel, which would be looking at that 28.6k area. So yeah, i do think its entirely possible right. I do think its entirely possible.

I talked about this quite a bit. I do think its entirely possible for bitcoin to see a dead cat bounce potentially as high as 28.6 k, most likely to 23.8k. I think thats entirely possible. I dont think theres anything wrong with a dead cat bounce in this price region. I also understand the fact that right now, ta is taking a back seat, and this is something that people are getting very uncomfortable with theyre getting very uncomfortable in my videos of me saying: oh yeah. Well, i think this is going to happen, but also might not right, theyre being uncomfortable with me, ultimately being indecisive and theres a reason why im being indecisive, im being indecisive, because theres no reason for me to be in this to be decisive right now, right, the S p 500 is very much in a strong downtrend, its tanking. By the day, what bitcoin charts are telling us are not necessarily the number one priority right now. What is the number one priority priority is where the s p 500 goes because bitcoin is strongly strongly connected to the s p 500 right. So this thing and this fractal saying oh yeah, this things going to dump way more well, it kind of just froze off all of my bitcoin analysis, doesnt it. But what i can say what i can say is that yeah, i think a bounce is slightly more likely here, but what i can say is that you know if we drop below the channel, so you should drop this channel in your chart for sure.

If we drop below the channel uh, that would invalidate that bounce entirely, but so long as were in the channel its most likely that we see a bounce right, thats. What i would say, and so yeah interesting stuff for bitcoin, not really too much to say about it. Other than that. I think that you know to summarize this video in a quick little. You know not here. I guess you could say: weve made history, weve lost a 200 week, sma were in the dark. There are vague macro indications like this up trending line its probably unlikely to hold, although we might see a bounce off of it to a maximum of 28.6k. That would be the summary of the video okay. So before we end the video, i want to look at a few things and then ill. Let you guys go first and foremost, wolves of crypto vip go over to my youtube channel click on the join button, and you can see all the perks weve got available. I want to talk about this specifically today, because weve got a new perk. Thats been added right, so new content added to it. Access to my trading view, charts has been added there, which means that weekly to my vrpm members, i will post links to my trading view charts. So they can look at it. They can monitor it. They can edit those charts, they can do whatever they want. I think they can edit them.

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