In this video im, gon na be looking at the big picture to see what that could mean for the macro cycle when a major bottom might be coming into the market and what else to be looking out for moving forward im, not a financial advisor, so everything I say is general information and for education and entertainment purposes, only trading and investing is incredibly risky, so you must always do your own. Due diligence seek your own professional help and guidance before making any decision in the market and past results are not indicative of future performance. Now what im looking at here is the times in bitcoins history over the last 10 years that, after a top, has come in when its lost a third of its value or more in one week or less. Now. Obviously, like i said in the introduction, it lost 34 and a half percent in just five market days last week, and it is somewhat common but uncommon. At the same time, you can see its happened. You know about a dozen times over the last 10 years. So while it is quite a lot, you know more than one time per year, its not like it happens every single week, so i do put some importance on it now from a theoretical, a bit of a hypothesis when we do see something like this. What im beginning to think is that the market sentiment has got extremely bearish and often when that happens, it is the time for a low or very close to low, just like at the opposite extremes when its extremely bullish and theres so much greed around often thats.

The times that a top comes in so im just kind of playing that both sides, but now obviously looking for a low and when its happened in the past now, another differentiator that i want to be looking at is approximately where it comes into the cycle. After a top has come in so by that i mean we can see that we had the top all the way back in november, and this is the first time in over six months, weve seen such a savage sell off, obviously losing one third or more of Its value, but before we get to the present day, im going to go back to 10 years ago and whats actually happened. So you can see all the way back in 2012 rather 2013, a top came in. It was a rather savage top losing a fair amount, but after that, top more than six months away, it lost about a third thirty, three and a half percent. Rather and from that point four, the market just obviously took off and skyrocketed now dont draw any conclusions. Yet im not saying thats whats going to happen right now, but in terms of analysis and whats happened in the past, when sentiment has got extremely bearish after an extended period of time from the top its something to be paying attention to now. What were looking at with the next cycle, we lost about 55 of its value where bitcoin lost 55 percent of its value right after the top came in, and then it happened again just a few weeks later, losing 36 percent.

But what i want to be paying attention to is when we get something like this, that happens six months or more from the top, not right after top and those initial savage sell, offs thats the differentiator i want to be looking at. So we can compare apples with apples now, obviously looking forward, you can already see all the green circles on the chart, but after six months or more after a major cycle top come in or just you know, a top of significance came in. It did end up marking the extreme low now the price didnt skyrocket away after losing 44 in one week. It did go sideways for around six months or more before, actually getting a move on, but in terms of the lowest price in terms of the lowest point on the market in terms of price. That was it now. What we saw at the next cycle was something similar to the cycle before where there was a few savage selloffs right after the top came in of you know, 35 34 percent a few times only a few weeks after the top, and then we kind of got A long drawn out grinding market before that final sell off into the low now in this situation. Here it lost 37 in a week or less it wasnt, the actual low. The price did happen to creep lower and then it took around six months again before it kind of you know, ground away, had some accumulation come into the market and then break away once again and then, of course, there was that week where it lost 53, which Is just absolutely nuts that was the covered crash week and, as you can see, it was more than six months from that previous significant top and obviously well over a year since the actual cycle top, but off from that point forward, it was a v shaped recovery Where the market just did dump into that low and then springboarded quite quickly away from that low and then finally, we lost 35.

5 in one week of may of last year. Now, im discounting this one, much like the previous tops, because only a few weeks after the actual top – and i want to be looking at market cycles – where were getting a bottom six months or more from the top. So, as you can see, im discounting the ones that arent circled and only take into account the ones that are circled purely for the fact like ive keep saying it was six months or more from the top. So if we look at what actually happens from that point forward in terms of market putting in a low and the type of recovery, that happens after that, it really is 50 50, because in two situations we had that savage sell off in one week and the Market bounced away quite quickly – and it also happened back in 2013, where there was a savage sell off, and it was a very you know fast v shaped recovery and then in the other situations there was a big drop. Savage sell off marking the final low, but it took quite a long time to re accumulate before putting in higher prices. That happened obviously back in 2015 and then also all the way back in 2018 as well, that savage drop. The market did continue a little bit lower, but it was really around six months or so before things really heated back up again and the market moved away so granted.

This is very loose kind of analysis, but in terms of sentiment and some similarities with where the market cycle is in terms of previous bear markets, i do kind of keep it in mind in terms of what could be coming up, because if the market does go Quiet for around six months, or so its just showing its done, something like it has in the past and it could just be re, accumulating getting ready for another boom. Now, if i was to make a decision about what were going to be seeing next, i would be sitting in the camp if were going to be on quite for around you know, six months or so before, really getting you know, re accumulating and getting ready for Another move i dont think were going to be seeing a v shape, recovery in terms of a macro cycle. Low v shape recovery, they do come in all sorts of shapes and sizes, and we may see some short term recoveries where theres sharp sell, offs and bounces. But in the macro term i do think theres going to have to be a period of reaccumulation before the market can really get moving again in a big way and lasting many, obviously weeks and months or longer into another bull market phase. So while this kind of analysis isnt something im going to be putting the house on and betting big based on yours, broad big picture overview, what i am using it for is just some general sentiment, a bit of timing and also what could be coming up and Preparing myself in terms of trading and also investing with what phase of the market it could be going into ill.

Let you decide for yourself whether it has any significance for your own trading, investing this kind of broad brush approach, so looking at what the markets done in previous cycles. The other important point to note is there are plenty of situations of after such a severe drop over 33 or more in a single week. The market can still dip lower and creep lower before putting in that major macro cycle low, so obviously anything could happen as always, its all a game of probabilities and managing risk at least thats the way it is for me until then for the macro overview of The market im going to be waiting to see if we can maintain this slow recovery period for the obviously the market to reverse. If you did enjoy this market update, as always, you know what to do and until next time ill catch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LE5jlsTDSI