"There's 10 Reasons Why Bitcoin is Crashing" | Michael Saylor
We have a strategy were not traders. If your time horizon is less than four years youre sort of a trader, if its in the months youre, definitely a trader im, not an expert trader. I dont have a crystal ball. I dont know where the markets going to go week by week, month by month, if your time horizon is more than four years youre an investor and when your time horizon is 10 years, youre kind of a saver bitcoin is showing its volatility, the flagship cryptocurrency dipped To the 17 dollar range before quickly bouncing back to the eighteen thousand five hundred dollar range, which is where it stands at the time of writing. Bitcoin is down thirty four point: five percent in the past seven days with analysts and pundits, arguing that the charts show bitcoin reaching as low as 12 000 before any bullish action appears as bitcoin trends down michael saylor tends to trend up as many want to see His reaction and thoughts to the latest bearish action in a brief interview with bloomberg sailor admitted that the high volatility of bitcoin in the short term cannot be denied, but in the long term at least four years, bitcoin is a low risk asset, but, more importantly, rather Than just stating that bitcoin is a low asset, sailor went into detail as to whats, currently wrong with bitcoin and believes. These reasons are causing such high volatility, and when these 10 things are fixed, bitcoin will be seen as a more mature asset which will bring in institutional investors that will create a more stable market.
Before we listen to sailor, if youre not subscribed, make sure you subscribe, as we put out daily content to keep you updated on the market, i couldnt have bought billions of dollars of single family homes and so thats, not even practical. So the bottom line is the bitcoin strategy is 10x better than any other alternative, and so no, i dont regret it. Uh weve got 2.8 billion dollars worth of bitcoin on our balance sheet. Right now, we feel like were positioned well, for when the markets turn around, and our only other choice would be to give all the capital back to the shareholders, in which case we would have nothing and we would be struggling to get by without any assets. I mean the money supply has expanded by 41 uh since january, first of 2020, when we went into this kind of coveted crisis, and we know that scarce desirable assets are getting bit up in price, i mean everybody wants to buy rolex, watches, theyre, buying luxury real Estate theyre buying everything they get their hands on creating shortages. So you know we are an institution. We have to take a 10 year view, and the only thing thats for sure is if we hold cash over a decade, were going to have a negative, real yield. The only question is how much so we have to invest in something and weve chosen as a business strategy to fos focus on what we believe is the most exciting investment idea, because its a digital commodity, thats, absolutely scarce and only getting technically better every year.
You know the number that i look at to figure out. Uh sort of the a surrogate for the book. Value of bitcoin is the four year simple moving average because it trades billions of dollars a day, and so after 1400 days of billions of dollars a day that number is 21 700. uh bitcoin touched that uh in the march 2020 2020 crisis. It touched it around 2017., its touching it right now, generally it trades above there. You know our strategy is uh were going to acquire bitcoin with our free cash flows from time to time, so were kind of dollar cost averaging into bitcoin and were going to hold the bitcoin for the long term and uh, and so it wouldnt really matter whether The price was 10 percent, more or 20 more 50 percent, more uh were just going to progressively acquire more bitcoin uh because thats our strategy, but so you are in terms of the bank for sale yeah, i mean its like not a bad price and we will Keep buying more, we have a very long term, 10 year time horizon and our view is over the 10 years. Uh bitcoins gon na be a good idea and its just gon na keep accreting in value uh. You know i cant tell you whether itll go down a bit here and there its in the near term, emily it trades like a high beta risk asset and theres. No denying that, over the long term, we believe its a low risk store of value asset theres about 10, things that have to happen uh over the next decade to make it a better asset and we kind of know what those 10 things are so were waiting And inviting our time – and we think that its going to improve as an asset class over time and were not in a hurry, lets, take the 10 sources of my pain, um, theres, no wash trading rules, so people can they can sell their bitcoin and buy it Back and harvest the tax gain and thats not the same with apple.
So if that gets fixed by the house, ways and means committee thats, a big plus for the asset, theres 520 unregistered crypto exchanges offering 20x leverage thats a negative for the asset class as they get regulated and i expect they will and as the 20x leverage disappears. Thatll be a positive theres, 19 000 unregistered securities in the crypto industry cross collateralized against bitcoin, as as those things have to uh have to get eliminated, or they have to convert them into publicly traded instruments. Thats going to decrease the volatility to be a big shakeout. The wildcat banks, like the you, know the terrorism lunas and celsius. They actually create massive volatility and as they get regulated and they disappear and they grow up and become institutionalized banks uh the asset costs will mature theres a lot of ignorance and fear. People think crypto is the same as bitcoin if they think that that means they dont understand either of those two things we dont have a stable coin. Emily, like ust isnt, a stable coin tether is an opaque uh security. No one understands if we ever have an fdic issued stable coin or something from a public entity, thats endorsed by the sec thats going to be very bullish for the industry, theres no spot etf. I think its only a matter of time before there is one approved thatll be very bullish for the industry. The fasb accounting is detrimental. The lack of fdic guidance makes it difficult, if not impossible, for banks to to hold this stuff were waiting for clear sec.
Cftc guidance and those 10 things theyre going to get cured over the next decade. Theyre, just not going to get cured over the next 10 weeks, were crossing the chasm uh theres about a trillion dollars in the asset class 400 billion is bitcoin. The other 400 billion is 19 000 unregistered securities uh were moving from the era of the offshore entrepreneur to the uh to the onshore public institution and its pretty clear from chair genslers comments that he made in the last few days that uh they want to see. All the crypto exchanges regulated they want to. They want to clean up this industry. The stable coin is going to have to be cleaned up as well, and the winners are going to be the public investors in public banks and public companies, and the losers are going to be the wildcatters you know, and the entrepreneurs the guts got started that are Flying by the seat of their pants – and i think its essential for us to move from a one trillion dollar industry to a 10 trillion dollar industry. So i welcome it.