Markets are closed. This is monday june. The 20th traditional markets in the united states are closed today, but the crypto market, as you know, is 24 7 and it continues to go on and bitcoin is rolling along nice little bounce. Here lets see what this was um right now it looks like 19 bounce nice little pop there. The last bounce we had was bitcoin bounced about 14 right over here. So this structure here looks a lot like what happened here and this is where it gets a little tricky. So the you know the bottom is definitely not in yet because financial markets have not bottomed yet, and it is a global situation. Inflation recession, uh, quantitative, tightening its a global thing, thats happening right now and its all connected and all tied in kind of like a round robin – and this is news out today – uh this is reuters, not cooperating, but christine lagarde came out today and said the risk Of an abrupt correction on europes, financial and housing market is high and risks to financial stability have perceptibly increased since the beginning of this year. She said, while the correction in asset prices so far has been orderly. The risk of further and possibly abrupt fall and asset prices remain severe. So remember what ive been talking about in the markets when i show you these sell offs, how orderly and calm that these little sell offs have been. It may not seem like that, but it really is its just levels to level to level right.

This is the dokuan area here that kind of messed everything up when he was just buying all that bitcoin. But you know in crypto its just been. You know from one level to the next, just kind of unwinding. Slowly unwinding. You know the whales kind of distributing as we go and now the miners had to come in and do some selling and then of course, theres people um. You know long in the market, so you know youre getting liquidations. But basically, if you look at this, i know some people are calling this a bottoming structure here. Just because of you know, if you look at mid cycle bitcoin or altcoins or whatever in the past, you know itll bottom, you know, bounce back, up, consolidate and move on were in a very different situation. Okay, we have quantitative tightening, we have interest rates. The fed has just gotten started: they havent really done anything yet 75 basis points is nothing and the whole scheme of where they need to go. They havent even started unloading, the balance sheet, yet so the fed hadnt even started. This is all in anticipate. This is all just pre running front running what the fed has done already, which is almost nothing. They still have a long ways to go, and then you have the effects of what theyve done and why that needs to filter into the market so anyways. This looks exactly like this right here right and you know some people are saying.

Well, you know this little pop up here and then final capitulation. You know this little drop in the consolidation and final capitulation. You know, is what the v bottom looks like well. V. Bottoms are when you have liquidity in the market to rescue it right now: theres, no liquidity in the market to rescue. Unless you know the tether printer just starts going off theyre going the other way right. Now. People are getting out of tether, so tether, cant print and just start buying, like they were doing theres too much scrutiny on them now so the days of tenor, tether, just printing and buying, so they can up their cash reserves. You know they print buy, sell. You know prop the market up sell, so they can build their cash reserves. They cant do that right now, uh dokwans, not out there anymore. A lot of the d5 stuff has to unload so youre. Seeing these things happen, it you know, drops kind of holds up drops again. This is that you know area with doequan, but you know same thing here: dropped consolidated, dropped and then ran sideways before the next drop consolidate drop. So what you conceivably could expect is, you know a little bit more sideways action here in that 18, 19 to 20 000 range before the next leg, down getting back to bitcoin, specifically, that was the hourly back to this area. Here we have so much confluence in that 14. You know thousand range where the market was tested.

Well lets go back to this is a log scale. Lets go back right here here we go so this is regular scale here into that 14. 000 range. Where youve got you know these touch points at 14, 000, along the way where that served as resistance. That could ultimately be support. But youve got this area here. Right now that bitcoin is working through. This is a 16 yeah 16 to 19 20 000 range of market structure right here that bitcoin is working on before it can drop down and test that you know 14 000 range. So this is an orderly distribution. Unwinding of all the liquidity and the leverage repricing right now same thing, that weve been talking about uh in the traditional markets right this rolling over this steady distribution, thats going on in the traditional markets working their way back down to these pre pandemic levels. Right. That was dao. This is the nasdaq snp. You know same kind of thing just you know this is the spy right here um. This is the russell 2000 uh. You know this is the invesco qqq. So if you look at all these things, and especially the spy and you go back and look at um lets go ahead and get this on the weekly here. You know the great financial crisis lets look at the s p, uh of uh. You know 2009 right. Bear market so nice orderly rollover, as the price bounces you know, consolidates drops bounces up, drops, consolidates drops just kind of works its way down, and then there was a big capitulation there.

But what you know what were dealing with here is the same kind of thing. This is just an orderly, unwinding and repricing. It looks worse than what it you know. This is on. The weekly looks a lot worse. When you look at them weekly, look at it on the daily and you can see you know, youre going to get these nice little bounces and buying opportunities. You know, market might bounce tomorrows tuesday, traditional markets might bounce a little bit. They might even have an up day before this continues down back towards these pre pandemic levels and all of the major markets, because stocks are repricing right, whats, a fair p e ratio for a stock, given the current interest rate, environment and qt with the fed. But the you know so far this has been orderly. This has not been a panic situation like we saw in 2018. Okay, lets go back and lets look at the s p in 2018, and we looked at this the other day, so this is uh where in 2018 go right here we go right in this area, so this is that uh wait a minute. What are we on here? I need to get on the weekly here here we go. Ah here we go so this is your uh 2001. This is the march pandemic right here. Uh not pandemic, but uh 2009 march of 2009 was the bottom. You know that was more fast right. This was a big drop in this traditional markets over a short period of time.

Then you go to 2018 same thing. You had you know big drops in a short period of time, uh right in this area. In 2018 2019 time frame and then the pandemic, of course, thats panic right bam. That was a big drop. You know that was in a matter of a couple of days. 35 drops. You know, whereas these are you know ten percent here, five percent there. You know that kind of thing uh over a couple of days, so big difference between this kind of drop, and you know this orderly unwinding that were seeing. You know happen here, even when you look at it on a daily basis, and you know the other thing too is where you know you see panic in the markets when you see circuit breakers right when the markets down and its tripping the circuit breakers, when it Sells off, i think its more than 10. You know at a time and they have different levels of the circuit breakers in the traditional market when youre tripping circuit breakers in the market and theyre pausing to slow the selling momentum thats. When youve reached panic in the market, we have not seen that in the markets, yet i dont know if we will see it. What the fed is trying to do is trying to unwind this without that, and that is the soft landing that theyre talking about and, of course, of course, bitcoin. You know you can see uh, you know the panic selling that weve seen there.

This is the pandemic. You know those big drops, you know over really. You know this is on the daily chart now, so this is over. Basically, you know right here in this area here just a few days where bitcoin dropped. You know 59 percent one two, three four, you know four or five days. That is a panic um. You know youre dropping 30. 40 percent. You know over a couple of days, you know thats a panic. This is one two, three, four, five, six, seven yeah. This is a couple of weeks here right and that is, you know 40 over. You know basically 10 or 12 days. So this is a healthy little drop here, because the deep five space is blowing up and youve got some systemic things happening. You know, but in general and some you know, leverage uh wipeouts as well longs and shorts, getting wiped out uh. So thats really whats going on. You know uh ethereums right there as well, so this major market structure level here is kind of holding up, but this is why i do not believe at this time that the bottom is in yet because we have not seen the markets bottom. We havent seen that panic selling havent seen that capitulation, dont know that we have to or need to, but i think theres a little bit more shakeout, because theres still people calling for all time highs. I mean in this environment of qt um.

You know rising rates inflation, the recession, you know the sunday talk shows were all about recession all weekend long. You know theres a lot to work through in the system. A lot of people are calling for a fed pivot by the end of the year or in july, or whatever um. You know, theres still a lot of denial in the market right now, still a lot of people that just you know just are calling for new. All time highs and just a complete v bottom reversal, like we saw on the pandemic when the fed came in and put two trillion dollars in the market. You know this is a bear market controlled, bear market distribution, unwinding uh. This right here was a panic, sell a black swan event with two trillion dollars pumped in the market, to bring it out very big difference in whats going on right now we dont have the fed pumping trillions of dollars into the market, and you know a lot Of people are calling for the fed to reverse course, and do that right now it would take. You know an extreme set of circumstances for that to happen. So these are my thoughts just wanted to keep this quick today right now, uh. It is my opinion that the bottom is not in, we shall see, nobody knows for sure. Only time will tell, but what i do know is the fed is just getting started. They havent really done anything significant yet and we are where we are based on the little bit that theyve done so far.

So, if theyre trying to do three times as much, which is what their target is in terms of the fed funds rate and rolling off the balance sheet, basically three times what theyve done so far, the markets got a little bit more to do.

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