My name is christian, bringing you cryptocurrency videos every day, teaching you how to make money in this market. If youre new to the channel make sure to subscribe and activate the bell right now and guys just like, i said this is a very important video, so make sure to watch this from the beginning until the end lets. Kick it off first here on the four hourly time frame and you can see if you just zoom out here, you can see that we have been. You know in a massive downtrend and we have been failing to make anything of the bounces. All of the bounces have basically been dead cat bounces, just for you know, whales to sell into and shorters to short into as well. You can see that this balance didnt manage to break above this orange box. This bounce didnt manage to do that as well, and at this point i told you that i was. You know very convinced that i think that we are going to continue to the downside, found some support right here and then another leg down and now we are finding ourselves in a situation where we have a lot of problems breaking through the nineteen thousand dollar level. So we find ourselves right now at eighteen thousand, five hundred we actually went as low as 17 500 yesterday, so that is where we find ourselves now before. I talk about whats going on in the market right now and why i am very cautious right now.

I still need to reiterate that i am long term the biggest bull for bitcoin, but these factors that have been pushing down bitcoin this all started with, of course, the downtrend in the market, which led into luna collapsing and since luna collapsing ive been very, very cautious Because i knew that there was going to be massive contagion with luna collapsing and we are seeing the dominance fall one by one, be it, you know three hours capital, be it uh celsius network, be it babel finance. You know youre, seeing all of the dominoes fall right now and until we have seen the last of those or at least the grand majority, and once we have more information and dust, has settled im staying away from the market, because i think that we are going To have some more downside now, i also think that the downside is going to be limited because we have been falling so much already and at certain prices here, theres just going to be, you know so much buying demand for bitcoin. We are going to run out of sellers eventually and uh yeah, i mean thats thats the situation, but if you look at the uh overall picture here on the weekly time frame, this is pretty obvious that i think that, yes, we are shooting overshooting to the downside. I still think that we can have some more downside, but i dont think that you are going to have. You know another 50 from this point or anything like that.

But there are a couple of things we need to pay attention to so on the traditional markets. You can see that we are in a very low level here. We havent really been at this level uh during the last couple of year or so and uh. The traditional markets are opening up today evening, the futures markets, and if we do see the traditional markets open up red this evening, that is, of course, going to have a massive impact on bitcoin, so guys make sure to pay attention today. Also, we have basically wiped out all of the stock market gains since the covet crash, so all of the cr all of the gains during the uh bull market in traditional markets have been wiped out. That is not the case, for bitcoin were still at a much higher level uh in bitcoin, compared to where we were at when the covet crash started back, then we were at ten thousand dollars, so bitcoin is still at a much higher price compared to the start Of the bull market after the covet crash, so the fear and greed index is at a six. This has never been this low and this is actually also lower than what we saw during the covet crash right here. You can see that we were kind of like at 10. You know 9 11.. That is the general vicinity we were in at so this just goes to show that i think that we are overshooting to the downside.

The problem is, though, that im not going to try to time a bottom here, instead im going to wait for the bounce im going to wait for the dust to settle, and i think that we are going to have a lot of time to position ourselves in Altcoins and in crypto in general, now a big thing i need to talk with you all about is block fight, because i think that block fi may be in trouble now block fi. They are a lending company kind of like celsius, kind of like babel finance. Now there are costs for concerns when it comes to block fights. So let me take you through this thread right here and block fight is probably going to undergo a liquidity crisis this year and keep in mind the things that have been uh crashing celsius. Three hours capital has not been that they havent had money. It has mainly been a liquidity crisis issue because celsius. Yes, they have a lot of s to eat. The problem is, they cannot liquidate those as teeth its locked in the ethereum 2.0 contract, which put them into a liquidity crisis, and this is why they went under same with three arrows capital. They have a lot of money and not only has to eat just like celsius has, but also in gbtc. So let me explain gbtc a little bit, so gbtc is actually bitcoin like to put it simply its bitcoin, but it is put into an investment instrument which makes it available to be bought on the regular stock market.

So, as you know, during a bull run, people want to buy bitcoin and they dont know where to buy it, so they go over to their favorite investment platform or the stock brokers they search for bitcoin and they realize that they can buy grayscale investment bitcoin, and This is actually its cool its good. The only thing is that this has usually been at a premium, meaning when you buy gbtc, youre, actually buying it at a higher price than when you are buying regular bitcoin and in a bull market. Thats. Fine because people just want to buy bitcoin shooting the premium even higher now traditionally, this has always been at a premium, but you can see that recently it has actually been at a massive deficit. You can see the purple line here. You can see that the premium rate is minus 26, meaning if youre buying gbtc youre actually buying the bitcoin at a less price than what is actually worth. Meanwhile, when the premium is positive, youre buying gbtc at a higher price than if you would buy bitcoin. So how are gbt shares actually created? Well, they are created by institutions who take actual bitcoin and they put it into gbtc, which issues shares which are then traded on the stock markets. Now the problem is, you cannot redeem the gbtc shares for bitcoin, so this is a one way street you take bitcoin, you put it into gbtc and then you can trade the gbtc shares, but you cannot take out the bitcoin until it is converted to an another Financial instrument and that that is why they are trying to convert this into an etf to be able to redeem the bitcoin from this actual investment instrument.

Now what blockfire has been doing is that, because traditionally gbtc was trading at a premium, they would take customers bitcoin and they would put it into gbtc and then selling those shares does profiting from that spread. Well, the problem becomes again when you see that the gbc premium has been going down, theyre actually losing money by selling their gpdc and during the start of the bull run, you can see that so much shares were issued here on the holdings page. You can see how much this went up and right here. You can see how much new shares were actually issued and you can see it stopped in 2021 in february and since then the premium has been going down and thus theres no point for institutions to put bitcoin into gbtc here, because the premium went away. Theyre, just gon na be losing money that way now, you may wonder why this uh blue chart is going down here, which represents the total holdings of bitcoin, if its not able to be redeemed well thats, because gbtc also takes out a fee, and that is the Only way theyre able to sell bitcoins theres a small fee for them managing your bitcoin, and that is why the bitcoin holdings have been going down because you havent seen new bitcoin being put into it, but the fees have been eating up some of the holdings here. Okay, so lets get into why block five may be in trouble, so we already know that celsius already uh went under.

We can see that a lot of crypto assets are being withdrawn from from block fight, and this may lead into a liquidity crisis for block fight. As well now, we also know that they lent money to three arrows capital. So how much did they lose on lending money to three hours? Capital? Well, probably a lot. They also actually kind of uh confirmed that they had lent money to three hours capital right here and just like, i said, block fight owns stupid bats in the market. Blockfi is the second largest holder of gbtc, three arrows capital being the largest holder, and we know what happened with three arrows capital right and, as i explained, grayscale bitcoin trust gbtc is a trad phi traditional finance product and when bitcoin is pumping hard tradify investors could Not figure out how to buy bitcoin so try to fight investors, fomo bought up gbtc via stock brokers, which gave block fine arbitrage opportunity, putting customers bitcoin into gbtc and then selling those gpt which worked out great for as long as the premium was there. But right now the only way for block fight to get out was to sell gptc to someone else or wait for the ssc to finally approve gbtc and convert it into an etf which does not seem to happen anytime soon. So blockfi are basically stuck with these gbtcs because if they sell their entire bag well, that is going to continue to push the peg down and they are going to lose a lot of money doing that, in fact, the discount is at an all time high recently, If you look at the discount right here, you can see that the discount have been going down to negative 35, and this is illustrating that someone is selling a lot of grayscale bitcoin right now, but they are selling it as this discount is going down lower.

They are selling it at less of a price and yeah. That is bad news for block 5, because their holdings have been going down with the premium going down here as well, and they are probably one of the biggest ones selling right now to keep up with the um yeah the liquidity they need for withdrawals from customers. Also, by the way they have been fined with 100 million dollars, so lock fire agrees to pay 100 million in penalties and pursue registration of its crypto lending products, so 100 million dollars. I dont know about you, but that is not something that i am just able to. You know put up like nothing, so this is also you know, giving them a massive hit. They have to pay this also, they have other uh settlements, they need to pay also. They are trying to raise funds right now, but it doesnt seem to be going that well, because their valuation went from three billion dollars to one billion dollars, and this was before all of the drama with celsius and unverified sources have told us that they only have What between 50 to 80 million dollars committed so far during the current funding round, so they are in need of liquidity, does not seem to be any one willing to give them that money. So what do they usually do in circumstances like these? Well, they start delaying. They have, you know holidays, so that you cannot withdraw because youre only able to withdraw once a week on block five, so they put that specific day as a holiday.

Now theyre my you know, this could be fine im not looking to spread fud here, but i think that if they go into a similar situation like celsius went into, then that is bad news for crypto. So until all of this has settled, if they do something like like what celsius did – and you know – halt, withdrawals or whatever thats going to cause some more panic in the market and yes, that is definitely something that we need to be on the lookout for also Miners right now they were some of the biggest customers from these lending platforms, and they are, you know at a very tough place right now, because they are barely making any money uh on mining here and also how has everything been affecting them when it comes to These landing platforms going under where you have to see the implications there as well now also the celsius wallet, the la the avi wallet, is in a pretty healthy state right now, the maker wallet has a liquidation price of 13 600. So both of these wallets are relatively fine for now, but i still dont understand how they are going to get out of this situation, because they are still heavily in debt and which they have to pay back. But they do not seem to have the money to pay back all of this debt, so yeah. We will see about that as well guys and guys dont forget to join my team over on, buy bit where you are able to trade with me and claim thousand five hundred and thirty dollars.

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