Bitcoin Will Bounce When This Happens On Price
So i do expect that theres going to be a little bit of interesting action around us market open later today and then of course exploding into tomorrow and then the bigger picture that weve been looking at is um. There is reason to believe at least based upon a few signals that are slowly but surely coming to uh evolution here that the bounce fair likely does happen probably around. I think earliest end of this week, maybe around uh beginning of next week, so well be going over the statistics kind of surrounding that and other than that. I think its time for me to once again chill aggressively my instagram ive been doing a little short bitcoin updates there on the stories feature and then also other you know stuff uh content related as well. You may or may not be interested in that, but ill. Let you know that it is available to you in the link in description below, of course, its free, and i also want to remind you, as i keep on kid, i literally keep on getting messed about this every day, uh theres a bunch of scammers on instagram. Any other account that is not the one in the link in the description below is not me. I can assure you of that. Please please, please, please be safe. All right sweet so lets just jump into it. Right now start off with bitcoin on the shorter term timeframes. We were looking at this as a range as yesterday between about 20 000 um.
I think it was 800 versus uh 20 uh. I think it was like actually 1906 to the downside on spot price action. In this case, wed get the breakout to the upside that was all supported by the funny rates and some of the drives of bullish divergence that we were seeing on cme. I believe so. Ultimately, that did uh play out here or sorry is in the process of playing out, but i do want to put on a major contingency to the rest of what were gon na, be speaking about regarding the shorter term time frames. Here everything is contingent upon this bitcoin saying above basically that little spike load that we saw yesterday at about twenty thousand three hundred and change right there as long as bitcoins above there, even on a very short term time frame like an hourly. I do still look for this rally to continue sideways and up and then around the time that us marks open up a little bit later today. Perhaps we get a little bit of fun business because heres the thing us markets were not open when bitcoin was making its lows. Typically speaking, we see these marks kind of you know trade and lockstep with each other. So you know if theres gon na be a bit of panic. Uh in traditional marks probably does happen uh around that time, maybe tomorrow as well on wednesday, but after that you know, i do think that marks theyve been kind of beat up enough to the downside.
For right now, im not calling any macro lows. This is in no way to perform a macro low call. In fact, i would not feel comfortable at all stating that, but i do think that, generally speaking marks getting ready to bounce later this week earlier next week, something like that anyways um and well go over the actual signal that ill be looking for for that low. Today, so in the short term, you know how high can bitcoin go here, uh. Well, we did say i think it was about two or three days ago, based off of the break of i believe it was. I believe it was 19, something rather that uh. You know wed be looking at a move towards 21 000, maybe even 22 000, and i still think that thats actually in order. Obviously weve already hit the 21 000 target and then the short term time frame range highs were broken yesterday or i guess this morning. Actually, this morning, um uh based off the analysis from sas thats, what im trying to say, um so yeah. You know i do think that bitcoin could find its way somewhere around here, uh, basically upper 21s to low 22s. If you want to put an exact number on it for cme and again im doing all this analysis on cme itd be something like this 21 9 to about 22. To some something like that do keep in mind. Our last lower has come in right around here from the 16th of june, so anything below there is yet again another lower high and not very helpful, and, of course, we should also be aware of the fact that, on the weekly we have the 200 simple move Damage coming in right around where right around 22 400, so that would be a little bit above even the short term time frame range um that i am kind of postulating right here, which would be a really really good area at minimum at minimum.
For a bit of a pullback and hey, if you are looking for a rejection, and maybe another return somewhere back down below twenty thousand dollars, its probably where it happened from as bitcoin is going to naturally have uh hidden bearish advertised drives available to it. As long as its below that level, i mean on the four hour already, we do have this uh four hour, rsi, making higher highs and even the highs that we saw from 10th of june, which was like way back when bitcoin was uh closer to 20. 29 thousand dollars, let alone twenty thousand dollars, so that is a bit sobering right there, anyways uh again. I would not be looking for this rally to be unraveled short term unless, if and and only if, bitcoin does come back down below again that twenty thousand three hundred pivot right here other than that four hour, bbwp is looking for expansion yet again after cooling off. After a major massive extreme that we did see, i think this was yeah later last week and then momentum also just a little bit more on the on the upside here as well. So lets actually go check in on stochastic momentum. Lets see where that one is at right now, four hours still cast momentum remains uh to the upside above, where oh, what do you know? Basically that same pivot? Twenty thousand two hundred thirty, very, very close to that twenty thousand three hundred region that im speaking about uh earlier twelve hour, also gon na be pointed north as long as bitcoins above oh, what do you know? Twenty thousand three hundred crazy thought that keeps on coming up so thats, a big big pivot here as uh as long as bitcoins above there yeah short term, probably does continue the rally a little bit more um and then hourly, where we put it out for the Very very short term, 20, 630 and then, of course, the daily which were going to do a much deeper analysis into you.
Soon enough is pivoted at 21 000 bucks, which bitcoins actually turning above right now. So if it does start to close above there um at the end of today, there actually is a little bit of hopium for bounce to happen without uh bounce happen sooner rather than later, meaning that you know, we probably see it happen, uh, maybe as soon as Tomorrow, um, rather than um rather than uh later this week and balanced targets would also naturally be higher as well, which would be, i guess, good for a little bit of hoping right there or maybe just to get people into more uh long positions before dump it. In their face yet again, anyways well get to that topic, maybe on another video of course, im not really saying anything about that on this particular video, but yeah. You know we do see uh, yes, another drive of phantom div over here on four hour rsi. So last week id say i was looking for three to four drives. Actually we do kind of have that right now now dont we one two. Oh my god. What was the read right there holy? You dont see that too often 11 read on the four hour. Rsi doesnt happen very often but happened uh last week, so we got one two three and uh number four right there again um. You know theres gon na be ebbs and flows, of course, but uh. But ultimately i do um well.
That is interesting right. There anyways other than that. I do wan na point out that if you do want a little bit of short term, do me um. The funding rates are actually positive right now, uh at almost not point one percent uh technically speaking at not point not not. Nine percent and um again, you know yesterday that relationship held true yet again, given a bit of an upside buys. So over the weekend we had one iteration where that didnt work and thats been like one out of in recent memory like the last month and a half or two months, so pretty damn dependable in this case and uh yeah. It actually would be positive here. So the question to me is you know how high does bitcoin get here before playing out a bit of a pullback again? Does it happen kind of where were currently at right here? I really want to call that concerning until bitcoins below about 20 300 or so at that point. Yes, id be looking for a retest somewhere reasonably close to our current lows, maybe a little bit lower and um. But if that doesnt happen – and we do see it somewhere right around here – then yeah id be looking for a nice clean rejection somewhere around 22 000 thats. I think thats, maybe a little more likely to happen in this particular case. Okay, cool. What else do i want to be getting off to right now? What else do i want to be getting off? Is this pornography? What the jesus christ, man choose your words better, its all those damn pain, pills, ill.
Tell you that theyre disgusting im so glad that i dont take them anymore, god, damn anyways lets go back on over to this chart over here. This is the one. This is the stuff that i feel the most confident on uh, regardless of the short term time frames again, because of the way that uh traditional marks will interact with um with you know what happened over the weekend for bitcoin um, but this is the mean reversion Chart so this is a different chart than what you might think, im actually pointing out, which is actually this chart over here, and because i got a couple comments about this um the other day. I do want to point out that this again is not relevant for the short term were talking about at earliest end of this week – probably maybe even a little more likely early next week, but it is not its not the same chart as this one over here. This was the original signal. The original signal was a volatility versus momentum signal volatility measure the dispersion returns. I use bbwp for that purpose, anytime, that we see get below 10 percentile. The expansion phase from there leads to an average move of blah blah blah and blah blah blah, and we saw it play out yet again, which is amazing and now what happens after that is. We get typically a mean reversion move, so that is this chart over here. So, for example, after we play out the initial trending move, so that would be the one that started over here um.
We then get a move that is typically counter to that trend, which is what im measuring on this chart over here and going over the data and statistics with which which well review in a second here. But this is essentially what im looking for. So, first and foremost, i want to see that original signal play out, get into the extremes and then cool off from those extremes. How do i define when the cool off officially begins when the bbwp itself gets a negative slope and is below the moving average, and preferably the moving average also has a negative slope, or at least its like, declining on a closed to close basis, thats? What we want to be saying um – and you can see on this last iteration – you know that kind of called around the low right here was the actual low. No, but it did get the next bounce in a more um, statistically relevant and safe manner, from a trading perspective, and that was about a 16 and a half percent bounce down over the course of 12 days. In the way that i measure it. So, as you can see, were setting up for another signal of uh, you know of a bit of correction here relatively soon. This is why i dont think its happening exactly right now. I do think that its more likely to happen end of this week early next week, something like that simply because the daily bbwp is still at 100 tile and the moving average for it is, is still at 98 spot 10 percentile, so theyre not quite there.
Just yet its going to take at least another day for them to both be about 100 and then another day for the for the bbwp to to get below the moving average and then another day or two after that, in order for them both to be like Trending down at the same time and thats when, like the high probability play, happens, anyways ive gone through and re and tested the last. I think it was yeah 11 iterations of this and found that the average mean reversion play was about 15 spot. Two. Four percent done over the course of eleven and a half days from that signal and the stochastic momentum also has gone the correct direction 82 of the time. So the reason why im, basically looking for this one to go to the upside, is simply because one its inversion play, which means that typically, its going to be against the prior move, not always actually not always um. But there are some examples of that, but um. But, typically speaking, yes and of course over here, we do see that the daily scotts momentum also is uh, really critical down right there, in fact, only lets actually see yeah only a few times in uh in history here. Has it been this low at this level? Uh to be fair, let me actually mark it off, so one of them was uh 7th of january. The other one was uh november 2018. I believe that was actually on the last macro loan or very very close to it.
Actually, no theres one more dump lower and uh, and the one before that was april 2018, a major low, but not a macro low, of course, all of them producing some nice bounces. So another thing you know kind of in that um in that category of most likely to bounce, and you will actually see the daily scrap. Stick um oscillator turn up with any sort of a closure today, above 21 000 bucks. So if we do see, price action remain above 21, then that actually could be that were seeing the balance happen sooner rather than later, and the bounce target will be higher uh than what it then was kind of postulating earlier. So um lets actually go into it. Right now and lets just lets just play around like what, if what, if that actually does happen, um of which, by the way, cme is actually potentially even get a bullish engulfing today, if it does close above the yesterdays side, which is 21 315.. If it does, then we could take the average of that at it from that level and 15, and a quarter percent would put bitcoin actually 24 000 bucks or thats actually 14.85, but it would be more like 24 500. I think. Let me actually just double check. Yeah about 24 or 500, as close as i can get right there, um heres the thing, though this is an average, and we just looked at a very, very extreme move right here.
For example, the bbwp on the expand im. Sorry, coming off of the compression was extremely low for an extremely long period of time and, as you can see over here, its been extremely high for a very long time as well. Compared to you know, pretty much all the other iterations um so itd be relevant to say that its probably going to be on the upper end of that average, which weve seen go up to. I mean even as much as like 35 percent uh to be fair. Um, although that doesnt thats, certainly an outlier like extreme, like definitely an outlier um, although actually no, we have another example over here. 40. Almost so, oh sorry, that is, i dont believe. No, that is correct. Okay, wait! No! That is not correct. Uh that was yeah. That was leftover from my prior chart. It actually is going to be much less than that, probably around 20, but still you know 20, i would think i would say is like maybe reasonable if that would have happened. So if we were to take that you know maybe 24 and a half thousand bucks um im, sorry, i didnt take that from the exact right level. Actually, let me actually take it from that proverbial level: yeah 25 and a half thousand bucks so 24 and a half to 25 and a half assuming that that would actually happen from from today. I think thats a little bit less likely to happen uh.
But, of course, as long as bitcoin is above the short term timeframe – pivot, okay, you know all good and the short term time timeframe. Pivot is 20 300 very, very critical number right there. As long as bitcoin is above there yeah. I guess that we could look at this as statistically, most relevant. In fact, um do keep in mind again where the 200 simple is on the weekly and all of that, because by end of week, well its gon na be very interesting to see where things kind of land upon that time, but um, but for right now you Know i do think theres a little there theres a little bit of short term hoping, but again this is in no way to perform a macro bottom call. I think that were i think that that would be much too premature to be uh. Speaking about such things, i think itd be only relevant if and only at least for myself. Of course, other people theyre gon na be more cavalier with this, but um. If uh or at some point we very likely do get this. We get a higher low and then preferably a higher high as well. At that point, yes, we got a nice reversal and were going to be talking about major massive, sustained upside, but until then you know ill just be uh just be aware of the areas of interest again short term. You know you got basically upper 22 000 bucks.
Give or take a few hundred and then above there you got a big one right around about uh, sorry that was going to be about 23.5 now and uh, and then of course, above there, then we got um the technical targets based off the chart over here Of which um wed expect that to be hit about 11 ish days from now. If it does start to play from now, uh so yeah, i think ill leave things right there.